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How does intelligence shape Russian domestic politics and foreign and security policy? Contemporary Russia is often characterized as a ‘KGB state’. Current and former intelligence officers, including President Putin, increasingly dominate politics and economy, bringing with them the culture, world-view, networks, and methods of the Russian intelligence community. This is widely acknowledged, but there is little systematic and theoretically grounded knowledge of how intelligence actually impacts Russian politics. To change this, RUSINTELSTATE has enlisted a team of carefully selected international Russia experts from the fields of intelligence studies, cultural studies, contemporary history, and international relations. Anglo-American intelligence studies (not to mention political science and international relations) traditionally separate politics and intelligence, regarding intelligence as a specific type of politically neutral knowledge whose role is to support decisionmaking. We argue that this normative approach is poorly adapted to Russia, an authoritarian, personalistic state with a distinct history. RUSINTELSTATE studies intelligence in a wider sense; as actors, activities, and culture. Intelligence actors (services/networks) vy for influence by positioning themselves in the political struggle. Intelligence activities (knowledge production) may both be heavily influenced by political considerations and influence these considerations. Intelligence culture, i.e. propaganda narratives, deep-seated beliefs, and everything in between, shape the views of and are also shaped by the actors. Further, we argue that neither the Russian state nor its intelligence can be understood in isolation from each other. Our concept of the ‘hybrid intelligence state’, highlighting the mutual influence of politics and intelligence in Russia, makes us better equipped to understand Russian foreign/security policy, and to deal with its challenges to our security.

How does intelligence shape Russian domestic politics and foreign and security policy? Intelligence is ubiquitous in Russia. Current and former intelligence officers, including President Putin, increasingly dominate politics and economy, bringing with them the culture, world-view, networks, and methods of the Russian intelligence community. This is widely acknowledged, yet how it impacts Russia’s foreign and security policy is still poorly understood by academics. Both intelligence as such and its role in IR remain under-theorized, and research on Russian intelligence is highly compartmentalized. To change this, RUSINTELSTATE enlists a team of carefully selected international Russia experts from the complementing fields of intelligence studies, cultural studies, contemporary history, and IR. Moving beyond the models of ‘the KGB state’ on the one hand and ‘intelligence-as-a-tool’ of the state on the other, we advance the novel theoretical perspective of the Russian Hybrid Intelligence State. This allows for a nuanced and culturally and contextually sensitive approach based on the recognition that neither the Russian state nor its intelligence can be understood in isolation from each other. Contrary to the traditional and often normative notion of intelligence as a specific type of knowledge, we employ a wide definition of (state-centered) intelligence as actors, activities, and culture, which allows us to analyze the different ways in which intelligence and politics influence each other: a) actors (services/networks) vying for influence by positioning themselves; b) activities (knowledge production) that may both be heavily influenced by political considerations and influence these considerations; and c) culture, i.e. both narratives created for propaganda and deep-seated beliefs of the intelligence services, as well as everything in between. This makes us better equipped to understand Russian foreign/security policy, and to deal with its challenges to our security.

The Russian Hybrid Intelligence State

By ordering a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has changed dramatically Russian politics and society. The economy, the power relations between domestic elites, the country’s relations to other countries, the relations between the regime and the population, and, crucially, the relations between the President and the elite – everything has gone through profound changes, and more is to come. Russia is isolated from the West and more dependent on China, and the level of sanctions is unprecedented. The war comes with enormous human and economic cost to Russia (not to mention Ukraine); heavy losses of forces and armament, mass emigration, mass exodus of Western investors and companies, as well as loss of markets in the West, asset freezes, technology embargos, and targeted sanctions against individuals and entities. Politically, economically, and socially, Russia is gradually being put in a mobilization mode. The hardliners in the elite and the military industry are gaining influence, while technocrats and private businesses are losing both economically and politically. At the outset of this project, we asked: How do the business elite and the government influence each other? How are economic policies influenced by changes in the elite? How is foreign policy influenced by the elite's composition and vice versa? Our publications in leading journals have provided important insights into these questions and have contributed with crucial knowledge on Russian politics and economy on the eve of the war. Present-day Russia is still governed by a loose coalition of elites with conflicting interests, but who have been bound together by unwritten rules, prospects of financial gain, albeit now in the sense of minimizing loss. The war and Western reactions have forced Russia onto the path of isolation, repression, forced mobilization and an increased role for the state and the military industry in economic life. While other options seem impossible for now, contradictions between the elites remain and signs of discontent are getting visible as Russia has so far failed to achieve its war aims. The power struggle and the dynamics we were studying in peacetime and continued to study in wartime will influence Russian domestic and foreign policy in important ways. Russia’s (mis)fortunes in Ukraine will in turn influence the intra-elite power balance and Russian politics in general. The findings of the RUSECOPOL project will remain relevant. For publications, please check the project site on Cristin.no or www.rusecopol.com.

This project proposes to develop a new approach for understanding the Russian state as a domestic and foreign policy actor. Specialist research has defied popular notions of an omnipotent Putin, state control over major businesses and successful use of economic tools abroad: the elite is diverse, divided and, lately, engaged in infighting. The state is unable to reform the declining economy and loyally rushes to support oligarchs hit by sanctions. Despite Russian economic leverage, the Eurasian Union integration project is failing. In addition, Putin apparently found his control over the security structures to be so uncertain that he founded a new unit, the National Guard, and subordinated it to himself. However, studies have tended to analyse state-business relations, the model of governance, and the domestic-foreign policy nexus separately. To our knowledge, there are no comprehensive studies analysing these fields together within a wider theoretical framework. This project will see them as interdependent factors shaping the state's policies both at home and abroad. Our overarching research questions are: What are the dynamics of influence between business elites and Russian government? How do changes in the elite affect economic policies? How is Russian foreign policy influenced by intra-elite relations and vice versa? Composing a multidisciplinary team of experts on Russian economy, politics, and the security services, this project starts out from the assumption that 21th century Russia is ruled by a coalition of various elites bound together by unwritten rules, prospects of financial gain and with Putin as an arbiter. Poor growth prospects, patriotic fervour, and Russia's new international position are changing this arrangement, threatening elite balance and even regime stability. Regardless of the outcome, this will have profound impact on Russia as a political actor, not least internationally, which makes it critical to understand the dynamics at work.

Russias Politicized Economy, Elite Dynamics and the Domestic-Foreign Policy Nexus

2 projects

UTENRIKSFORSK-UTENRIKSFORSK

The Russian Hybrid Intelligence State

Awarded: NOK 7.0 mill.

Project Period: 2024-2027

Location: Innlandet

UTENRIKSFORSK-UTENRIKSFORSK

Russias Politicized Economy, Elite Dynamics and the Domestic-Foreign Policy Nexus

Awarded: NOK 5.1 mill.

Project Period: 2019-2025

Location: Innlandet