2012

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Prosjektbanken presenterer statistikk og informasjon om prosjekter med finansiering fra Forskningsrådet fra 2004. Statistikken er fordelt på blant annet tema, år, geografi og organisasjon. Prosjektbanken gir også detaljert informasjon om de enkelte prosjektene.

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Polar

Tørkeperioder kan gjøre bakken hardere og frastøte seg vann, dette fører til økt fare for flom og jorderosjon hvis det skulle komme styrtregn. Sammenfallende hendelser hvor en tørkeperiode ender i styrtregn kan derfor forårsake større skader på infrastruktur og avlinger enn enkelthendelser med kun tørke eller styrtregn. Global oppvarming har forårsaket at både tørkeperioder og styrtregn intensiveres og skjer oftere, som også kan føre til at sammenfallende hendelser med tørke etterfulgt av styrtregn også kan intensiveres og skje oftere. 
Selv om det er funnet en økning i tørkeperioder og ekstremnedbør med global oppvarming også i klimamodellene, er det også en stor spredning mellom modellene på hvor mye og i hvilke områder som opplever mer tørke og nedbør. Prosjektet vil undersøke faktiske historiske hendelser hvor tørkeperioder endte i styrtregn i værobservasjoner og værmodelldata for å finne passende indekser som kan brukes til å analysere hvordan de forekommer i klimamodellene. Modeller på finere skala gjør en bedre jobb med å modellere nedbør, prosjektet vil derfor bruke finskala høytoppløselige klimamodeller og globale klimamodeller for å se hvordan tørkeperioder avsluttet med styrtregn forekommer i disse. De modellene som gjør det godt opp mot observasjoner vil bli identifisert.  Videre vil prosjektet studere endringene i hyppighet og intensitet av sammenfallende hendelser med tørke og styrtregn med global oppvarming.
En av grunnene man vet til hvorfor det er stor usikkerhet knyttet til hvordan klimamodellene gjenskaper nedbørsmønstre er hvordan fordamping varierer over skog- og andre arealer. I prosjektet vil vi se på effekten av avskoging og økt skogbruk i globale modeller, og gjøre egne beregninger over mindre areal på finskala for å for å se hvordan fordamping blir påvirket. Resultatene av prosjektet er viktig får å unngå eller minimere skadene slike sammenfallende med tørke etterfulgt av styrtregn kan forårsake.

Global warming intensifies drought and extreme precipitation. Compound events with droughts ending in intensified precipitation - DRIP can cause large damages but are extremely understudied. This project aims to estimate the change in frequency and intensity of DRIP events with global warming due to changes in the water-cycle. We will identify actual historical compound DRIP events and find indices that are suitable to identify these events in model data. As global climate models show a large spread in precipitation for both historical and the different future climate projections, there is expected to be a spread in model projections of DRIP events as well. We will constrain this spread by identifying global climate models that do a good statistical representation of historical DRIP events and by analyzing large ensembles to evaluate the natural variability. As higher resolution modelling shows a better representation of the water cycle, the project will analyze regional downscaled global models in identified regions of interest.  We will also perform in-house regional simulations of identified global models down to convection permitting scale to study the change in DRIP events with model resolution. The project will also target a highlighted uncertainty connected to the water-cycle by exploring how evapotranspiration and the occurrence of DRIP events found in climate models respond to land use change. For this analysis we will extend the regional downscaling to include sensitivity studies which contain deforestation and forestation. Results gained from DRIP will make a large contribution to the knowledge needed on future mitigation measures due to the increase in compound events.

DRIP - DRought ending in Intensified Precipitation

The Natural History Museum, University of Oslo (NHMO) plans to host the annual scientific conference for European Association for Vertebrate Palaeontology 2024 in Longyearbyen, Svalbard in partnership with Evolutionsmuseet, University of Uppsala (EM-UU), The University Centre in Svalbard (UniS) and Svalbard Museum (SM). This will be the first international conference for vertebrate palaeontology in Norway and comes as a result of the last two decades of research on fossils from Svalbard. Hosting the conference in Longyearbyen is a major attraction for international researchers, and an opportunity to showcase Norwegian research in the Arctic. The conference will focus on polar research, with dedicated sessions on the frontiers of high latitude palaeontology and will result in contributions from the hosts to international processes, such as ICARP IV.

EAVP 24 – a polar perspective of palaeontology
Application for event support

The ongoing climatic changes will have undisputable effects on biodiversity and ecosystems. For small ectotherms (e.g. insects) the current state-of-the-art focusses on physiological performances (often measured as critical thermal limits), warming tolerance (resilience) and phenotypic and evolutionary responses. These data provide input to models used to describe expansion – or more often restriction – of species distributions. The climate is changing especially rapidly in the Arctic. Much of the knowledge we have on responses (or lack hereof) to warmer temperatures in terrestrial arthropods is based on studies on temperate and tropic species. Further, the little we do know about the realized warming tolerance under field conditions in the Arctic is based on extreme physiological endpoints, such as critical thermal maxima, measured in the laboratory. The aim of the project is to investigate the consequences of increasing temperatures on behaviour and energy budget for coping with heat under field relevant conditions in Arctic insects. In doing so, the project will generate much needed information on potential overlooked consequences and resilience of Arctic insects to increasing temperature. Here, we want to explore to role of behavior for thermal adaptation and adaptive thermal responses, and assess the energetic consequences of increasing temperatures. The results might fundamental change our understanding of thermal adaptation in small ectotherms in general and the current predictions regarding the resilience to climate change specifically. Thus, there is a potential for reforming the research field.

The role of energy budget in a changing world: Are forecasts missing an important aspect for Arctic insects?

The term "hunger gap" (no: “vårknipa”) traditionally used in agricultural communities, refers to the period at the end of winter when winter provisions are depleting, yet the growing season has not yet started. In contemporary usage, the term also describes the food situation for wild animals, which may encounter challenging conditions at the end of winter. This situation is particularly pronounced in the Arctic, where the Svalbard reindeer is awaiting new plant growth after an eight-month-long winter. The limited winter food supply has prompted various morphological, physiological, and behavioral adaptations to conserve energy, crucial for overcoming the "hunger gap". The aim of my thesis is to investigate annual and individual variation in what ends the “hunger gap” for reindeer. I will utilize a dataset of activity and heart rate monitoring of ca 50 GPS-marked female Svalbard reindeer. In these data there is a very rapid increase in activity and heart rate from a “winter mode” to “summer mode”, a signal I define as the end of the “hunger gap”. I hypothesize a relatively large annual variation in the date of this switch, cause by annual variation in snow melt, spring temperatures and plant growth. On the individual level I will investigate the effect of body condition, age and reproductive status on the date of the “end of hunger gap” signal. I will be provided with activity and heart rate data from my supervisor, and will myself collect the required data on ground spring temperatures and calf at heel status together with a field assistant in august 2024.

From winter time to summer time – what ends the "hunger gap" for Svalbard reindeer?

Prosjektet går ut på å invitere forskere fra norske eller utenlandske universiteter til å presentere sin forskning om økonomi og klima ved Handelshøyskolen ved Universitetet i Stavanger (HHUiS).

Dette skjer i form av et seminar som vanligvis finner sted en gang i uken. En kjent forsker fra et annet universitet kommer til Stavanger og holder et 60-minutters seminar og har en rekke møter med forskere i Stavanger. Vi prøver å ha minst 6-8 møter per gjest. I tillegg spiser gjesten lunsj og middag med UiS-ansatte.

Disse seminarene er en del av en eksisterende seminarserie som også tar for seg andre klimaspørsmål. En stor del av seminarene er imidlertid fokusert på klimaendringer og økonomi, og det er kun til disse seminarene vi søker midler.

En aktiv seminarrekke er hjertet i et forskningsuniversitet, og svært viktig for at forskerne ved universitetet skal kunne utvikle seg og være en aktiv del av det globale forskningsmiljøet. Dessverre må vi av budsjettmessige årsaker kutte ned på denne aktiviteten i år og fremover, og derfor sender vi denne søknaden for å be om midler til denne aktiviteten.

UiS har et meget energisk forskerteam innen økonomi og klima. For eksempel ble Dora Simons forskning nylig nevnt i The Economist, Anders Åkermans forskning ble denne uken nevnt av Det hvite hus i den amerikanske presidentens årlige økonomiske rapport, og Torfinn Harding skriver jevnlig artikler i Dagens Næringsliv og opptrer på norsk TV. For at denne gruppen skal overleve, er det svært viktig å kunne arrangere seminarer om klimaendringer på høyeste internasjonale nivå.

Seminarer med internasjonale forskere om økonomi og klima ved Universitetet i Stavanger

The importance of non-timber forest products (NTFPs) for better balancing tropical forest conservation and poverty alleviation goals is increasingly recognised. Yet, in Africa, poor understanding of the impact of harvesting on species’ populations and forest carbon stocks, together with little information on the traditional institutions which have informally regulated NTFPs extraction in the past -and could continue to do so in the future-, hamper the use of NTFPs in both forest conservation and development initiatives. 
AFRI-FOR will gather the knowledge needed to determine (1) the key enablers of sustainable harvesting for groups of plant or wild meat species, (2) which types of NTFP harvesting can have synergies with carbon storage, and (3) how traditional institutions can be integrated into formal conservation. To achieve these objectives, AFRI-FOR provide new methods, including (i) a new interdisciplinary approach for investigating NTFPs harvesting impacts, combining traditional ecological knowledge (TEK, from local communities), surveys of plants and wildlife, market surveys and modelling techniques; and (ii) a novel standardised protocol for gathering information about traditional institutions and compliance towards them. AFRI-FOR will gather data and knowledge from 20 socio-ecological forest contexts in five countries (Sierra Leone, Cameroon, DR Congo, Uganda and Kenya), which will allow insights to transcend single sites and provide a much-needed general understanding. This high-risk and high-gain project will provide a step-change in our ability to inform forest conservation in Africa, by identifying synergies between biodiversity conservation, carbon storage and poverty alleviation goals.


Improving tropical forest conservation in Africa

There has been great emphasis on quantifying the release of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane from melting permafrost. However, research on links between melting glaciers and permafrost and nitrogen release has been limited, despite its potential as a direct or indirect greenhouse gas. Recent studies have suggested that weathering of shale and coal bedrock in proglacial/periglacial environments has the potential to be a terrestrial hotspot for nitrogen release into the aquatic system. Mobilised nitrate may be converted into nitrous oxide (a greenhouse gas ~300 times more potent than CO2 on a 100-year time scale), and may impact nitrogen-limited coastal ecosystem productivity and carbon cycling. Svalbard is one of these potential terrestrial nitrogen hotspots, and is therefore an ideal place to quantify geogenic N sources, subsequent transport and processing across the aquatic continuum, and eventual marine fate. Last year, an AFG awarded as part of the NITRIRUN project (RiS ID 12255) gathered detailed data from one small catchment near Longyearbyen, to investigate the processing and cycling of nitrogen on land in one small river system. In the proposed fieldwork, we will start upscaling this work. The ultimate aim is to develop a process-based catchment nitrogen model for Adventdalen in southwest Spitsbergen, representing geogenic N mobilisation, vertical nitrous oxide losses during transit from source area to coast, and coastal delivery. A crucial first step in setting up this model is to define the source areas of geogenic nitrogen, and that is the focus of this AFG. Project aims are therefore to establish: (1) where geogenic nitrate is entering surface waters; (2) nitrate concentrations and their variability; and (3) link results to broader landscape features that can be easily derived from readily-available spatial datasets, for upscaling and extrapolation outside the study area.

Characterising geogenic nitrate source areas in Adventdalen

In my master thesis, I will investigate the reproductive success of a Svalbard breeding population of the snow bunting Plectrophenax nivalis in relation to food abundance. The snow bunting is the world’s northernmost breeding passerine species. Assessing how species like the snow bunting are able to adapt is critical for understanding ecosystem dynamics in a rapidly warming Arctic. Adult snow buntings feed mostly on plant material, but they provision their young with arthropods. By examining how breeding success in snow buntings relates to food abundance, I aim to determine whether climate change is inducing a mismatch between snow bunting breeding phenology and the timing of arthropod peak biomass. To distinguish the complex effects of climate change from the large inter-annual variation characteristic for the Arctic, long-term monitoring data is essential. 
This project is part of the snow bunting long-term monitoring project (SNOWBUNTING, RiS ID 2272) which has monitored the annual reproductive success of snow buntings since 1998. The project registers onset of breeding, clutch size, nestling weight, and fledgling success in response to local weather and largescale climatic parameters. Since 2014, it also includes monitoring of seasonal variation in insect abundance. My fieldwork will cover all monitoring in 2024, ensuring the continuation of the long-term time series. Together with data from the previous years, the 2024 data will be critical to understand the relationship between snow bunting breeding phenology and the timing of arthropod peak biomass. The field campaign is scheduled from June 10th until mid-August. Nest monitoring will require almost daily fieldwork until mid-July. Arthropods will be monitored with pitfall traps, emptied every 4th day between June 10th – August 18th. Collected arthropods will be identified to group-level and their dry weight estimated to investigate seasonal variation in arthropod abundance.

Breeding phenology of Svalbard snow buntings in relation to arthropod abundance

Warming temperatures and a reduction of sea-ice scour opens the Arctic intertidal as habitat for colonization by both seaweeds and marine invertebrates. Indeed, large increases in the biomass of seaweeds and invertebrates on Arctic coasts have already been documented in the past decades and are predicted to continue. To understand the ramifications of this widespread ecological change in the Arctic intertidal, one needs to examine species-specific responses and how these drive inter-species interactions and ecosystem dynamics. Information about Arctic intertidal communities across environmental gradients are few, and even more scarce are studies on: species adaptability, biotic interactions, and regional variability in population and community structure, all of which contribute to ecosystem stability.

We propose to examine the stability of components of the Arctic intertidal ecosystem along an environmental gradient (low wave & sea-ice stress -> high wave & sea-ice stress). Specific objectives are to study the effects of abiotic forcing on i) seaweed morphology ii) the colonization of the intertidal by seaweeds and invertebrates iii) the genetic constitution of intertidal seaweed and invertebrate populations. 

During a field expedition to Svalbard in the summer of 2024, we will perform quadrat and transect surveys of intertidal biota, as well as collect samples for further morphological, taxonomical, and genetic analyses. 

The main challenge is to collect samples at sites that present a broad enough environmental gradient for an impactful study. We can reach a variety of exposed and sheltered sites in Kongsfjorden to achieve the stated objectives. Collaboration with other researchers to obtain freshly collected or preserved material for genetic analysis from Svalbard outside of Kongsfjorden will be desirable to broaden the scientific impact of this study.

Intertidal ecosystem response to an increasingly ice-free Arctic

SASCHA har som mål å utvikle praktiske verktøy og metoder for å vurdere og håndtere kulturminner når klimaendringer utgjør en risikofaktor. Prosjektet ledes av University College London (UCL), og har Norsk institutt for kulturminneforskning (NIKU), Arizona State University (USA), NHAZCA (Italia) og North Carolina State University (USA) med som partnere. ICCROM (International Centre for the Study of the Preservation and Restoration of Cultural Property), English Heritage Trust (Storbritannia) og Ventotene kommune (Italia) deltar i prosjektet som samarbeidspartnere. 

 Hovedmål for prosjektet:  
- Utvikling av indikatorer og målemetoder for måling av klimaendringers virkning på kulturarv. 
- Etablere metoder for å involvere relevante aktører i identifiseringen og målingen av disse virkningene. Metodene skal kunne tilpasses lokale forhold og kulturell kontekst. 
- Utvikle verktøy for å hjelpe beslutningstakere til å vurdere og anvende målinger på ulike nivåer. 
- Utforske utfordringer og muligheter knyttet til bruk av nye metoder for vurdering klimarelaterte risikofaktorer for kulturminner. 

Ved å oppnå disse målene skal SASCHA ruste lokalsamfunn og kulturminneforvaltningen til å bedre forstå og håndtere klimarisiko. I tillegg, gjennom samarbeid med organisasjoner som UNESCO og ICCROM, skal SASCHA bidra til globale diskusjoner om hvordan klimaproblematikken kan integreres i kulturminneforvaltningens praksis. Alt i alt vil SASCHA legge til rette for politikkutvikling og styrke kulturminneforvaltningen ved å tilby verktøy og metoder for å effektivt vurdere, tolke og formidle klimarisiko for kulturarvsteder over hele verden.

SASCHA proposes operationalisation for transferable risk assessment and a value-based decision support tool. Supported by this approach, the overarching aim of SASCHA is therefore to develop innovative methods for understanding risks of climate change for heritage that allow for multiscale analysis and scalable approaches, bridging the gaps between local knowledge and global data, and from local vulnerability to global risks. To this end, SASCHA will: a) develop a set of operationalised indicators/metrics for relevant determinants of climate change; b) develop a locally adaptable protocol for stakeholders' engagement in the identification of relevant determinants of climate impacts that acknowledge and celebrate diversity in cultural contexts; c) develop a climate adaptation decision support tool to evaluate relevance of assessment approaches for different spatial scales; d) explore the challenges and opportunities of an operationalisation approach to climate change--heritage risk. Addressing a complex, wide and research-intensive subject, SASCHA unfolds several organisational, scientific, technical, technological and cultural heritage-oriented elements. SASCHA includes four research partners, together bringing significant experience in climate change and heritage and requisite expertise in physical sciences (UCL), social sciences and humanities (NIKU, NCSU/ASU) and technology (NHAZCA). The consortium can significantly contribute to safeguarding and protecting their region's coastal heritage but also to the global discussion of the integration of climate impacts assessment on cultural heritage through the close collaboration with UNESCO's Advisory body, ICCROM and case study stakeholders. SASCHA will develop methods for assessing, interpreting, and communicating climate change risks for heritage, while also supporting effective policy development and heritage management.

Multiscale approaches and scalability within climate change-heritage risk assessments

Midlene fra ENERGIX-Stort program energi fordelt på år

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Seniorforsker

This project is to support the Operating Agent in IEA Hydro Annex IX in the work planned for 2022-2024. Planned and proposed activities within the Annex is listed below. The Operating Agent will coordinate these activities:

•	Annex IX online meetings normally four times per year
•	Participate in IEA Hydro ExCo meetings, normally two times per year
•	Disseminate White Paper and Report "Valuing Flexibility in Evolving Energy Markets: Current Status and Future Outlook for Hydropower" 
•	Participate in Hydro 2022, Hydro 2023 and Hydro 2024 conferences, where there are also both TCP and Annex meetings
•	Finalise and publish factsheets (se deliverables plan) 
•	Disseminate report "Role and Challenges of Pumped Storage Hydropower Under Mass Integration of Variable Renewable Energy"
•	Edit and publish a report "Hydropower providing flood control and drought management: Case studies (common task with Annex XII)"
•	Write a White Paper as a summary of the report "Hydropower providing flood control and drought management: Case studies" together with Annex XII. 
•	Write White Papers and Reports according to deliverables plan
•	Organise workshops, webinars and seminars 
•	Discuss common work and publications with other TCP (Wind, Solar PV). It is planned to organize back-to-back meetings with TCP Wind. The Operating Agents of TCP Wind Task 25 and TCP Hydro Annex IX will also participate in each others' meetings.
•	Discuss further collaboration with IEA 	
•	Discuss further collaboration with IRENA, IHA, the World Bank, the EU, Eurelectric
•	Update webpages
•	Collaboration with IEA Hydro Annex XII
•	Inform Norwegian interested partners about IEA Hydro activities.

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POLRES-Polarforskning POLRES

Snow distributiion modelling in Artic climate using digital camera observations for data assimilation

Awarded: NOK 76,519

Project Period: 2012-2012

Location: Oslo