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Tjenesterettet FoU

Climate change presents one of the most complex challenges of our time. Governments worldwide are adopting ambitious goals for net-zero emissions by mid-century. However, these goals demand more than individual policy measures like carbon taxes; they require comprehensive "policy portfolios"- carefully combined measures to ensure effectiveness, fairness, and public support.

The FairZero project focuses on understanding how to design these portfolios. By studying the public’s attitudes using a range of scientific methods, the project aims to uncover strategies for maximizing support while achieving climate goals in an efficient manner. The project work will proceed within three key areas: behavioral insights, household energy use, and transportation.

Using focus groups, lab experiments, and survey experiments, the team will investigate how combining incentives (e.g., subsidies for clean energy) with restrictions (e.g., fossil fuel taxes) can address public concerns about fairness and effectiveness. For example, can pairing stricter building codes with targeted subsidies make policies more acceptable across diverse social groups?

The outcomes will provide actionable insights for policymakers, helping them craft strategies that are not only efficient but also equitable. FairZero's findings will directly inform efforts to reduce emissions in Norway and provide useful insights that can be applied also in other countries.

Governments are struggling to implement effective policies to combat climate change. There is increasing
recognition, including by economists, that a single instrument such as carbon pricing will not suffice as climate
change has the characteristics of a “super wicked problem”, requiring a combination of multiple policies and
measure to form an effective policy response.

As governments increasingly turn to policy portfolios to address climate change, research on policy portfolios is
emerging. Existing research has come some way in understanding how policy portfolios can improve effectiveness,
but in terms of understanding public support a substantial research gap remains. The lack of knowledge on public
support for policy portfolios (as opposed to individual policies) means there have been few attempts to quantify
relevant trade-offs between public support on one hand and effectiveness and efficiency on the other.
The primary objective for this project is to provide a better understanding of how to create combinations of policies
that balance effectiveness, efficiency and support. With more existing knowledge to build on regarding effectiveness and efficiency, we will primarily generate new insights on public support – with an emphasis on considerations of
distributional fairness and heterogeneity of beliefs, and on understanding and quantifying the trade-offs when the
three concerns do not pull in the same direction.
We will use well established empirical findings, to identify and test policy portfolio designs that may achieve a better balance between effectiveness, efficiency, and public support. The project will be structured to facilitate a feedback loop between explorative (focus group) and carefully controlled (lab experiment) methods and methods (survey experiments) analyzing the topic in a context rich setting to more effectively arrive at policy relevant insights based on theoretical and behavioural underpinnings.

Designing policy portfolios to ensure a fair and efficient transition to zero emissions

The aviation industry must cut more than CO2 to meet climate targets
International aviation has set ambitious goals to cut CO2 emissions. Through efficiency improvements, sustainable aviation fuels, and technological advances, the industry – via the UN body ICAO – believes it can reach net zero CO2 emissions by 2050. But even if these plans succeed, a new 2025 study from Aviate shows that aviation will still contribute to increased global warming by 2070.
The reason is that aircraft emit much more than CO2. The exhaust also contains water vapor, nitrogen oxides, and particles that form contrails and clouds high in the atmosphere. These can contribute more to warming than CO2 itself. The overall climate impact from aviation could double by 2070 – even if the industry manages to phase out fossil fuels within the next 15 years.
Electric aircraft could tackle all of these issues at once, since they do not create contrails or particles. But the technology is far from ready to replace today’s aircraft on longer routes. Truly climate-friendly aviation therefore requires that non-CO2 effects are also taken into account when future climate measures are designed.
These are exactly the issues at the heart of the Aviate project. Today, aviation accounts for 2.6 percent of global CO2 emissions, and emissions are expected to grow rapidly. Such trends are incompatible with the deep cuts needed to stay within the 1.5–2°C targets. At the same time, reducing aviation emissions has proven difficult due to international competition, a lack of effective global agreements, and resistance from both the industry and the public.
Aviate examines how the full climate impact of aviation can be reduced. We study what drives demand for air travel, how different climate policies are perceived, and what motivates industry and governments to adopt new solutions. For the first time, the project will provide independent estimates of the climate impact of contrails from flights in Norway and develop new scenarios where aviation is fully represented in emission pathways consistent with the goals of the Paris Agreement.

Aviation makes up 2.6% of global CO2 emissions, but the overall climate impact is larger, and the projected emissions growth is inconsistent with the steep emissions reductions needed to reach the Paris Agreement temperature goal. Identifying effective and realistic mitigation options is essential if the sector is to play its part in achieving a low-emissions society.

It has been difficult to reduce aviation emissions because of high exposure to international competition, the lack of an effective international policy response, and public and industry opposition. We will explore the drivers and future demand for aviation transport in the consumer as well as the business market, and analyse attitudes to a comprehensive range of potential demand-side policies to mitigate the climate impact of aviation.

The Paris Agreement provides an umbrella under which a range of different actors search for effective policy responses. We will study this search mode of governance to understand how it works, which factors motivate firms and government to find and deploy solutions, and how effective governance can emerge.

Aviation affects the climate through several mechanisms in addition to via CO2 emissions. The warming impact through formation of contrail-cirrus is estimated to provide a larger individual contribution to climate forcing than that from CO2. Accounting for non-CO2 emissions is essential in the assessment of the total climate impact from aviation - and in understand the effectiveness of mitigation options. We will provide the first estimates of aviation-induced cloudiness from Norwegian emissions and its subsequent climate impact.
The aviation sector has been poorly represented in global emission scenarios. Based on our policy and climate impact results we will revise and adapt existing scenarios from the industry and other sources to develop a more detailed representation of aviation, and include the sector in the 1.5 °C and 2 °C narratives used by the IPCC.

Aviation in a low-carbon society

Green Transition: How to get people and businesses on board?

Climate change requires major transitions in our society, especially in energy and transport. But such changes often face opposition. How can we make the transition to a low-emission society both effective and acceptable to the population? This was the main question for the ENABLE research project.

ENABLE researchers looked closer at three important areas:
1.	Offshore wind
2.	Sustainable transport
3.	Flexibility in the power system

What did we find? ;

EU sets the course - Norway must keep up. The EU's ambitious climate policy is increasingly influencing Norway. Through broader and better-coordinated policy packages, the EU is also challenging the sector principle in Norwegian administration to strengthen the coordination of climate and energy policy between directorates and ministries.

Offshore wind - new opportunities, new challenges? The project has contributed entirely new insights into what happens when we shift focus from building wind power on land to building wind power along the coast and offshore. Our studies show that it's not just the location and size of wind power installations that matter for people's perceptions, but that it also plays a big role what the power will be used for and who owns it. The studies also showed that there are challenges related to coexistence with other industries and interests at sea.

Self-driving public transport - are people ready? Researchers examined people's attitudes towards self-driving public transport. They found that many are positive, but there's still skepticism to overcome.

Car-sharing in the city - part of the future? A survey in Oslo and seven other cities showed interest in increased use of shared and self-driving cars in residential areas, but there is also significant resistance to radical changes in personal transport habits. This can be linked to lifestyle and existing mobility patterns. Involving the appropriate user groups - todays drivers who are willing to change habits, combined with restrictive measures on private car use, such as congestion charges and increased parking fees, is necessary to avoid self-driving technology having undesirable effects on transport systems such as more vehicles on the roads and fewer people who choose to walk or cycle. In addition, the systems must have a high degree of accessibility and ease of use.

Flexible electricity consumption becomes more important. Model studies show that we need more flexibility in electricity consumption towards 2050. Especially if people don't accept more onshore wind power or more international power cables.
Surprising findings about policy packages. 

It has often been believed that a combination of taxes and subsidies would increase people's acceptance of climate policies. ENABLE researchers found that this is not necessarily true. In some cases, it can even have a negative effect.

What does this mean? ;

The ENABLE project provides valuable insights for decision-makers shaping climate and energy policy. The main message is that social acceptance is crucial for succeeding with the green transition. We need to understand people's needs and concerns to create good solutions.

The researchers particularly point to the importance of:
•	Involving people in the transition
•	Understanding how new technologies affect people's daily lives
•	Considering how climate measures affect different groups in society

Norway has ambitious targets to cut greenhouse gas emissions while at the same time provide a secure supply of energy and meet other societal goals. Norway’s first contribution to the Paris Agreement is to reduce emissions by 40% by 2030 (vis-à-vis 1990). Achieving this - and later - target will require a massive green transition of the energy and transport sectors.

However, implementation of technologies and policies to cut emissions has over the last few years been characterized by repeated conflicts between advocates of rapid upscaling and individuals and organisations that are concerned with possible side-effects. Despite strong political intentions to promote a transition to renewable energy and significant industrial commitments, the transition has often met strong opposition. For new energy and transport technologies to contribute effectively to the green transition in Norway, there is a need for sufficient acceptance for them and to manage the resistance that they may create. This requires deep insights into the premises for social acceptance on multiple societal levels in order to design appropriate policy packages that can simultaneously address multiple objectives.

ENABLE asks the question whether and how different policy packages or mixes of technologies and measures can contribute to build social acceptance for the green transition in Norway? Through in-depth studies and active user involvement, the project will promote opportunities for efficient upscaling of technologies in the transport and energy sectors. We will address these issues from the user, local community, national, EU and system levels with application to three technology areas: Wind power, sustainable transport, and flexibility and grid.

Enabling the green transition in Norway

The international UN climate agreements under cover all greenhouse gases, with a few exceptions. However, most of the focus has been on addressing emissions of CO2, the principal greenhouse gas. Because progress in addressing CO2 has been slow, the so-cal led short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) have been placed high on the political agenda in recent years. The SLCFs include black carbon (soot), tropospheric ozone, methane and hydrofluorocarbons 

This project has investigated the potential of reducing emissions of SLCFs within the global effort to address climate change. While there is a large academic literature on the incentives to reduce CO2 emissions and on what is required to ensure effective cooperation, the literature on the potential of reducing SL CF emissions is much more limited, in particular in the social sciences. Because reducing emissions of CO2 and of SLCFs differs quite substantially in terms of sources, opportunities, costs and benefits, lessons learnt from analyzing the former do not nec essarily translate to the latter. The project has collected and generated new knowledge about the physical, economic and political potential of reducing SLCF emissions. This formed the basis for a systematic assessment of the incentives for mitigation both within countries and of how incentives interact between countries under different conditions. 

The project has also analysed how reducing SLCF emissions might contribute to limiting climate change more broadly. Specifically, how might incentives to reduce emissions of SLCFS and CO2 interact, and how might actions to reduce SLCF emissions affect prospects for effective cooperation on reducing emissions of CO2? We have also contributed substantially to the field of emission metrics, suggesting new ways to address the different nature of the climate impacts of CO2 and short-lived components. 

In addition to a global focus, the project also had a partiular focus on the Arctic - a region particularly vulnerable to SLCF emisisons, and where incentives to act are therefore greater.

Project results have been presented to the Norwegian Ministry of Climate and Environment, the science advisory panel of the Climate and Clean Air Coalition, the Norwegian Environment Agency, and at COP side events

Populærvitenskaplig framstilling - Norsk

De internasjonale FN-baserte klimaavtalene omfatter alle klimagasser, med noen få unntak. Det meste av innsatsen har imidlertid dreid seg om å kutte utslippene av CO2, den viktigste klimagassen. Fordi framdriften i dette arbeidet har vært dårlig, har de såkalte "kortlevde klimadriverne" blitt satt høyere på den politiske agendaen de siste årene. De kortlevde klimadriverne inkluderer svart karbon (sot), troposfærisk ozon, metan og hydrofluorkarboner. 

Dette prosjektet skal undersøke potensialet for å redusere utslippene av kortlevde klimadriverne innenfor det globale rammeverket av klimaavtaler. Mens det finnes en omfattende vitenskapelig litteratur om incentivene for å kutte utslipp av CO2, og om hva som kreves for å sikre effektivt samarbeid, er litteraturen om potensialet for å kutte utslippene av kortlevde klimadrivere langt mindre, spesielt innenfor samfunnsvitenskapene. Det vi har lært av å analysere utslippskutt av CO2 lar seg ikke uten videre overføre til å kutte utslipp av kortlevde klimadrivere på grunn av betydelige forskjeller med tanke på utslippskilder, muligheter for utslippskutt, samt kostnader og gevinster.

Prosjektet kommer til samle inn og generere ny kunnskap om det fysiske, økonomiske og politiske potensialet for å kutte utslipp av kortlevde klimadrivere. Dette vil så danne utgangspunktet for en systematisk analyse av incentivene for å kutte disse utslippene både innenfor enkeltland og i samspillet mellom ulike land.

I en artikkel publisert i Nature Climate Change bruker vi en innovativ tverrfaglig tilnærming for å kvantifisere gevinstene fra klubbsamarbeid for å kutte utslippene av kortlevde klimadrivere. Studien viser at det er i landenes økonomiske egeninteresser å kutte utslipp tilsvarende nesten 90% av det tekniske potensialet for svart karbon, mens for metan kreves det mer strategisk samarbeid mellom land. Studien viser også at klubber med så få som fire medlemsland kan oppnå nesten 80% av potensialet for utslippskutt som finnes blant medlemmene og observatørene til Arktisk Råd. Resultatene har blitt presentert for klima- og miljødepartementet, Miljødirektoratet, og på to internasjonale konferanser. 

Et annet arbeid fra prosjektet viser hvordan GWP100 kan brukes på en ny måte for å sammenligne CO2 med kortlevde klimadrivere. Studien, som er publisert i Nature Climate Change, viser at GWP100 kan brukes til å sammenligne et enkeltstående utslipp av CO2 (en puls) med en permanent opprettholdt utslippsreduksjon for kortlevde klimadrivere.

Populærvitenskaplig framstilling - Engelsk
he international UN climate agreements under cover all greenhouse gases, with a few exceptions. However, most of the focus has been on addressing emissions of CO2, the principal greenhouse gas. Because progress in addressing CO2 has been slow, the so-cal led short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) have been placed high on the political agenda in recent years. The SLCFs include black carbon (soot), tropospheric ozone, methane and hydrofluorocarbons 

This project will investigate the potential of reducing emis sions of SLCFs within the global effort to address climate change. While there is a large academic literature on the incentives to reduce CO2 emissions and on what is required to ensure effective cooperation, the literature on the potential of reducing SL CF emissions is much more limited, in particular in the social sciences. Because reducing emissions of CO2 and of SLCFs differs quite substantially in terms of sources, opportunities, costs and benefits, lessons learnt from analyzing the former do not nec essarily translate to the latter. The project will collect and produce new knowledge about the physical, economic and political potential of reducing SLCF emissions. This will form the basis for a systematic assessment of the incentives for mitigation bot h within countries and of how incentives interact between countries under different conditions. 

In a paper published in Nature Climate Change we use a novel interdisciplinary approach to quantify the gains from club cooperation on mitigating SLCFs. We find that almost 90% of the technical potential for black carbon mitigation can be reached by countries acting in self-interest alone, whereas methane mitigation requires more strategic cooperation. We also show that clubs with as few as four members can realize almost 80% of the cooperation potential for reducing SLCFs among Arctic Council member and observer states. The work has been presented to the Ministry of Climate and Environment, the Environment Agency, and at two international conferences. 

Another study from the project shows how GWP can be used in a new way to compare CO2 with SLPFs. The study, which was published in Nature Climate Change, shows that GWP100 can be used to compare a one-time (pulse) emission of CO2 with a sustained change in emissions of SLCFs.

The Role of Short-Lived Climate Forcers in the Global Climate Regime

The visit by Stephan Kroll to CICERO in the summer of 2012 will serve up to four purposes:

1) In the spring 2011, Dr. Kroll conducted experiments at Colorado State University. Tthey will be followed by additional sessions in the fall of 2011. These exper iments are part of a larger research agenda on the acceptability and feasibility of environmental policies such as the environmental tax. The unique twist of this particular set of experiments is that we examine if people with a certain worldview are more  or less likely to vote in a certain way. The final analysis and write-up and submission of a paper will be done in Oslo in the summer of 2012

2) The same team will also conduct a new set of experiments. The basic idea is that in a public good experiment , the prime tool for experimental researchers of social dilemma situations, one often observes relative high contribution rates (40-60%). However, in the market experiments with externalities, which are fundamentally very similar, we noticed that subjects  very rarely contribute by cutting down on their purchases. We have set up an experimental design, which makes the equivalency between the public good scenario and the market with externalities even more similar, and will write up the paper in summer 2012 .

3) The team is part of a RENERGI proposal. The proposal contains an experiment on potential spillover effects of pro-environmental behaviors. If this project is funded, we will use Dr. Kroll?s visit at CICERO to finalize the specific design of this exp eriment, for which a paper in a peer-reviewed journal can be expected.

4) Currently Dr. Kroll and his collaborators have two papers under submission; one at the European Economic Review (since April 2011) and one at Ecological Economics (since August 201 1). If past experience is a guide, then we optimistically expect to be working on at least one revise-and-resubmit for these papers over the summer of 2012.

Acceptability and Feasibility of Environmental Policies

The main objectives of CICEP were to identify international policy options and strategies that can drive the transition towards low-carbon energy systems, and to determine consequences of plausible international policy options for major Norwegian industries, and for government strategies. Our work has been divided into four academic work packages (WPs). 

WP1 has analyzed the climate policy trajectories of key actors in international climate cooperation, with a particular focus on national climate policy development in the United States, India, Brazil, China, EU, Russia and Japan. Accepting that climate change mitigation requires policy change followed by policy durability, researchers have employed theoretical insights from comparative politics, political science and international relations with the aim to explore how and why combinations of interest-based, institutional, and cognitive factors strongly influence climate policy development in the countries we studied. After the adoption of the Paris Agreement, our research focused increasingly on emerging conflicts over fulfilling the Agreement's ambitions and actual climate policy developments at the domestic level. We have analyzed issues like U.S. decreasing climate policy ambitions in the Trump era, EU climate policies in the shadow of internal policy ambition divergence and events like Brexit, and China's potential for international climate leadership.

WP2 analyzed which international climate agreements hold the most promise for mitigating climate change. We closely followed the climate negotiations under the UN. Research has focused particularly on equity, with a view to identifying politically feasible options for dealing with this contentious issue. We argued that searching for a single ?fairness-optimizing? formula is likely to fail and that a more promising approach would conceive of fairness as a multidimensional construct and foster accommodation through mutual recognition of a limited range of legitimate norm interpretations. This approach has been credited with influencing the Paris Agreement. After 2015, we have analyzed the prospects for increasing the ambition level under the Paris Agreement. We have also analyzed the prospects for cooperation processes that would be supplementary or alternative to the UN process, focusing in particular on cooperation starting with a small club of large countries, as well as carbon pricing.

WP3 studied effects of climate and energy policies on international energy markets and emissions, mitigation costs and distributional impacts, accounting for indirect effects through markets. Based on a global, multi-region economic model we developed scenarios reflecting the pledges of international agreements, policy impacts on fossil and renewable energy, emissions, and the costs to major emitters. We also engaged in analyses on emissions embodied in trade, shifting territorial emissions from developed countries to China and other industrializing countries. We have been heavily involved in the annual releases of the Global Carbon Budget. 

WP4 has examined the making and consequences of EU climate, energy and technology policies from different angles. How has the EU managed to agree on ambitious and binding goals and policies? One key finding is that linking different policies and issues in packages has proved effective. First, issues valued differently by policymakers were combined. Second, distributional obstacles were overcome by sharing the burden through differentiated obligations and by adding issues as side-payments. Finally, package policies were framed in a synergistic way. The examination of consequences has focused on industry, EU member-states and Norway: To what extent and how have policy packages that promote EU-level agreement been implemented domestically and in different industry sectors? In-depth studies of Germany, the Netherland, Poland and Norway show that they have responded very differently to the EU policies. Poland has reluctantly implemented required policies and opposed more ambitions policies for the future. Germany has responded more offensively, particularly in the renewable energy policy, but it has also faced challenges. The Netherlands and Norway can be placed somewhere in between these extremes. A key finding concerning industries is that most sectors have stepped-up efforts, but electric power producers have been most ambitious in exploiting new opportunities for electrifying Europe.

CICEP has placed great emphasis on training a new generation of researchers to study international climate and energy policy. With funding from the FME scheme, external projects and directly from the partner we have supported 10 PhD students, seven of whom enrolled in the PhD program at the Department of Political Science at the University of Oslo.

This proposal responds to theme five in the call - international climate and energy policy - but will address questions under theme six as well. We have two primary objectives for CICEP. First, to help identify and design international policy options and  strategies that can drive the transition to low-carbon energy systems. In particular, CICEP will help determine which of the policy options that meet basic requirements of effectiveness can be adopted and successfully implemented. Second, to better unders tand the consequences of plausible policy options and trajectories for international and European energy and energy technology markets, for major Norwegian industries, and for government strategies. Our research shall meet high scientific standards, be pr oblem-driven and solution-oriented, and yield new and important knowledge. To achieve these goals, CICERO, FNI, and the UiO Department of Political Science will build a strong interdisciplinary team with political science and economics at the core, and wi th links to natural science, technology and law. CICEP will collaborate with leading international research partners at University of California San Diego, Fudan University, Lund University, and Basque Centre for Climate Change, and make good use of estab lished research networks. CICEP will work in close contact with a select group of user partners from government (the Climate and Pollution Agency, Klif; the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, NVE), major companies (Hydro, Statoil, Statnett,  and Veritas), and organisations (the Confederation of Norwegian Enterprise, NHO, with three of its branch organisations; and the Norwegian Confederation of Trade Unions, LO). The work will be organised in five work packages - two focusing on policy devel opment (objective one), two on policy effects (objective two), while the third highlights the priority given to synthesis and outreach.

CICEP-Strategic Challenges in International Climate and Energy Policy

No policy can be implemented or sustained for any length of time without public support. Several important examples of failures to implement new Piougivan tax schemes bear testimony to this. In order to design Pigouvian taxes that are both efficient and f easible we need to understand why it is so difficult to implement policies that could potentially increase overall welfare.

A limited number of studies on public perceptions of environmental taxes and green tax reform help provide an answer to this puzzl e. They show that Pigouian taxes are viewed solely as a means or raising revenue, rather than in terms of their incentive effects, there is great distrust that governments willl do as promised with the revenues, and that there is a strong preference for e armarking the revenues to environmental projects.

The relatively few studies in this field leave many important questions unaddressed:
- There is very little systematic knowledge about the Norwegian general public?s perceptions of environmental policy in struments.
- Emissions trading schemes and personal carbon offsets have not been afforded the same attention as environmental taxes.
- There has been no systematic comparison of the efficiency of policy options when there are constraints on what is politi cally feasible due to public perceptions of the policy.

The project will address this knowledge gap through 3 work packages:
WP1: Public attitudes to climate change policies in Norway: A focus group study of public attitudes will be used to design a repr esentative telephone survey of the Norwegian general public's attitidues to the issue.
WP2: An experimental investigation of the acceptability of environmental policy instruments: A lab experiment will be designed to test the acceptability of alternative policy instruments.
WP3: Implications for designing feasible and efficient mitigation policies: This WP will bring together the findings from the first two WPs to provide policy recommendations.

Designing feasible and efficient climate policies

7 projects

FRIPROSJEKT-FRIPROSJEKT

Designing policy portfolios to ensure a fair and efficient transition to zero emissions

Awarded: NOK 12.0 mill.

Project Period: 2025-2030

Location: Oslo - Oslove

KLIMAFORSKNING-KLIMAFORSKNING

Aviation in a low-carbon society

Awarded: NOK 15.2 mill.

Project Period: 2020-2026

Location: Oslo - Oslove

ENERGIX-Stort program energi

Enabling the green transition in Norway

Awarded: NOK 16.8 mill.

Project Period: 2020-2024

Location: Oslo - Oslove

KLIMAFORSK-Stort program klima

The Role of Short-Lived Climate Forcers in the Global Climate Regime

Awarded: NOK 15.5 mill.

Project Period: 2014-2018

Location: Oslo - Oslove

IS-BILAT-Mobilitet Norge-USA /Canada

Acceptability and Feasibility of Environmental Policies

Awarded: NOK 89,985

Project Period: 2012-2014

Location: Oslo - Oslove

FMESAMFUNN-FME samfunn

CICEP-Strategic Challenges in International Climate and Energy Policy

Awarded: NOK 64.0 mill.

Project Period: 2011-2020

Location: Oslo - Oslove

NORKLIMA-Klimaendringer og konsekvenser for Norge

Designing feasible and efficient climate policies

Awarded: NOK 3.7 mill.

Project Period: 2009-2011

Location: Oslo - Oslove