Modelling dynamics of a microbe-vector-host triad: plague in Kazakhstan as an example

Plague is caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis and is transmitted from rodent to rodent by a flea (vector). The abundance of the main host (being the habitat of the fleas and the plague bacteria) fluctuates in both space and time, posing some particula rly interesting constraints on the plague and flea dynamics. The main objective of our study will be to develop and analyse dynamic models of plague with the potential to increase our understanding of the spatio-temporal dynamics of the microbe-vector-hos t triad. At present, there is a clear scarcity of such plague modelling studies. We will take a pluralistic approach, applying Bayesian statistical modelling, nonlinear time-series approaches, as well as partially mech anistic modelling. Model development and evaluation are facilitated by the extensive spatio-temporal data set available on density and prevalence of plague for the main host and vector in Kazakhstan. An understanding of the spatio-temporal ecological dyna mics will provide a good basis for further evolutionary studies relating to the evolution of virulence which might be related to the spatio-temporal dynamics of the primary hosts), as well as further studies in applied issues, such as predicting or preven ting outbreaks of plague.