Geohazards, Climatic Change, and Extreme Weather Events

Geohazards are events related to geological features and processes that cause loss of life and severe damage to property and the natural and built environment. The most common in Norway are snow avalanches, clay-, debris- and rock slides, which together c aused more than 2000 deaths during the last 150 years. Statistically, about 10 large slides and avalanches are expected to occur in Norway the next 50-100 years, each with possibly 20-100 deaths and a large impact on infrastructure unless preventive plann ing and actions are made. A possible increase of extreme weather events in the next 50 years may lead to an increased slide frequency. The project involves five different institutions, which also includes two of the Norwegian Centres of Excellence in R esearch, covering a wide range of natural and social sciences. The proposed research will define the relationships between meteorological conditions and geohazards based on historical records and numeric simulations. We will produce high resolution climat e and weather scenarios for the next 50 years, and use these in assessing the frequency and character of future geohazards events. This will be done partly in selected case regions, covering a range of geohazards types, geographic setting and degree of so cietal preparedness, but results will also be extrapolated for Norway as a whole. The project involves assessment of the socioeconomic consequences of geohazards in Norway, both in the past, and under the predicted future climate. Important parameters are cost related to damage as well as to mitigation measures, learning by experience, preparedness, and impact on policy makers. Bridging gaps between natural and social sciences is an important aspect of the project. As geohazards are an important part of Norwegian daily life and receive significant public interest, we aim at reporting project results in frequent newspaper articles and popular science magazines, in addition to scientific journals.