Geohazards and the transport sector under climate change

This project is based on the ongoing work in the Geoextreme project, funded by NORKLIMA, and aims at extending the usage of Geoextreme results by deriving consequences of a change in the frequencies of geohazards for the transport sector. The transport al ong key roads and for railway within two of the case areas highlighted in Geoextreme, Stryn and Otta, will be further assessed and analysed. Avalanches, in particular, often leads to closure of the road between Otta and Stryn, a key connection between the north-western part of Norway and the rest of the country. A change in the frequency of avalanches and slides caused by climate change will affect the regularity of goods transport and safety in general. The estimation of potential costs includes direct c osts of damages, injuries and delays as well as indirect costs for the region due to irregularities in the deliveries of goods to and from the region. In addition, slides may affect tourism in the area. Otta is a dry place with steep hillsides, vulnerable to landslides under a more humid climate. It is also a transport node for the southern part of Norway, connecting the East, the North West and the Mid/North not only for road transport, but also for railway transport. The potential costs to the transport of more frequent land slides are similar to those of avalanches in Stryn, but the it affects more regions. A range of possible measures to mititage the risks related to the geohazards, or to adapt will be evaluated. Lessons from these case studies will p rovide important insights to more general knowledge about the relationship between transport and climate change, and generalizations will be highlighted towards the end of the project.