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MILJØ2015-Norsk miljøforskning mot 2015

TVERS: Watershed EUTROphication management through system oriented process modelling of Pressures, Impacts and Abatement actions.

Awarded: NOK 9.0 mill.

Impact Assessment of changes in environmental pressures requires improved system and process understanding to reach the knowledge level needed for sustainable water resource management as well as meeting future demands from the EU Water Framework Directiv e (WFD). Both conventional and WFD resource management require a catchment-oriented approach to integrate processes. The Morsa site is thoroughly studied with long data records. Using a DPSIR approach on its eutrophication problem we set out to achieve co nceptual geochemical process understanding of fluxes of bio-available nutrient fractions. This is used to adapt, parameterize and optimize existing catchment and lake models to simulate environmental response to changes in pressures. These models are inte grated with stakeholders compliment to abatement actions by means of Bayesian network in order conduct an integrated uncertainty analysis and provide a decision-support tool. In concluding, the societal response to how local and provincial government deal with eutrophication is studied using the Bayes model. The project thereby compile research and monitoring projects at Morsa, build on conclusions and identified knowledge gaps, and bring the science another step towards more policy relevant knowledge. The aims are first to increase our ability to monitor nutrient fractions enabling us to obtain a better understanding of the catchment processes governing variation in levels and fluxes of nutrient. Thereby we will achieve a more accurate parameterisation of conceptually based impact of and response prediction models. The next aim is to facilitate development of sustainable management practices by estimating the integrated uncertainties linked to simulated environmental impacts as well as to societal resp onses to the implied abatement strategies by means of Bayesian network. Finally the aim is by means of the Bayes studies to achieve a better understanding of societal response to implied abatement strategies.

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MILJØ2015-Norsk miljøforskning mot 2015