Strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emission in Norwegian agriculture

The basis for analysis in this project is the sector model Jordmod, which is the only economic model for the agricultural sector in Norway. As a part of the project, Jordmod has been improved. First, the soil classification has been significantly expanded in collaboration with Bioforsk. Second, emission coefficients have been linked to the main agricultural productions. Consequently, it can be used to compute emissions both from current agriculture and alternative farming methods. We can therefore analyse the greenhouse gas impact of a shift in agricultural policy. Cicero has been working specifically to develop and establish a module for biochar, and to integrate this into Jordmod. SNF has had the overall responsibility for integrating new modules and approaches in Jordmod. Several articles have been published. In an article published in Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, we look at effective ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture while keeping agricultural production as high as possible. There are two factors that drive the adaptation to a low carbon agriculture. At the farm level, a shift towards less carbon intensive production techniques takes place. But more important is it that consumers are provided with incentives to consume relatively more agricultural products with a low carbon footprint, i.e. a shift from red meat to vegetables and white meat. In a working paper we have compared the relationship between carbon emissions and trade with particular focus on carbon sequestration. The main result of that paper is that it may be efficient to intensify agricultural producing to release land that can be used for carbon sequestration (afforestation). This point is also elaborated in an article published in EuroChoices: If agriculture is to meet the needs of an expanding world population while simultaneously contributing to mitigation of GHG emissions, this will require the intensification of production - higher output per unit of land with higher emissions per unit of land area, but with lower emissions per unit of agricultural production.

Agricultural activity is a significant contributor to GHG emissions, being responsible for about 9 percent of the total Norwegian GHG emissions. The Norwegian emissions are closely associated with ruminant animals which are important in Norwegian agricult ure, high intensity in the use of fertilizer, and cultivation of peat soils. The main objective is to assess cost efficient ways to reduce GHG emissions from Norwegian agriculture while ensuring important objectives attached to agricultural activity, like food security, rural viability and land amenity values. A major challenge will be to balance multiple and often conflicting objectives, involving both agricultural policy and climate policy. As an analysing tool we will elaborate and apply a sophisticate d economic model for the Norwegian agriculture enabling us to identify trade-offs between social, economic and environmental interest in this resource based sector of the economy. First, we will establish the status of knowledge with respect to how emissi ons depend on a wide area of parameters, e.g., crops, animal type, feeding practice, fertilizer use, and land tillage practice. Based on this survey, national adapted GHG emission coefficients will be identified and attached to farming activities and land use included in the model. Furthermore, the model's spectrum of land use technologies and farm practices will be extended. Emphasize will be put on land use and practices that contributes to lower GHG emissions or even sequester carbon. The elaborated mo del will be used to analyze cost efficient ways to reduce emissions under alternative agricultural policy objectives, taking into consideration adaptation both at the farm level and between farms and regions. We will consider economic incentive structures that might facilitate the adoption of low emission and sequestration technologies. These measures will be analyzed in terms of their capacity to enhance other objectives related to agriculture.