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KLIMAFORSK-Stort program klima

Climate change and Chinese agriculture: Effects on food production and options for adaptation

Awarded: NOK 6.5 mill.

Project Number:

209671

Application Type:

Project Period:

2012 - 2015

Funding received from:

Location:

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Previous studies share a common feature of using data at provincial or regional level to study the impact of climate change on crop production in China. However, extreme weather events usually occur in smaller areas and their effects might easily cancel out in the larger regional data. As part of this project we therefore studied the crop exposure to extreme weather events based on a survey of maize yield at household level in Shanxi province. Village climate data were extrapolated based on China Meteorological Administration observational points, covering the growing season. Extreme weather was defined in terms of extreme drought, heat waves and cold days. Maize turns out as particularly sensitive to increase in the number of days with extreme heat, i.e. temperatures above 29 degrees as frequently used in the literature. The study used both climate variables and farm input variables to explain the development of maize yield. Farm input data at crop level are not available from the regular rural surveys of agricultural households in China, but were collected as part of an earlier study of household farming and energy use and available for a subset of households in Shanxi. The results confirm negative effects of extreme heat on maize yield. One additional day of extreme heat can result in 0.5 ? 1.2 per cent decrease in maize yield. An additional consecutive dry day lowers maize yield by 0.36 per cent, whereas 4 mm rainfall raise maize yield by 0.17 per cent. The study further indicates that after 2003 maize is more sensitive to heat than before, masked by an overall increase in yield of 20 per cent as use of agrochemicals has increased markedly during the last decades. The ability to sustain the rise in yield in the future is more limited, possibly making climate change impacts on food supply more visible. In terms of contribution to the knowledge base, it is particularly interesting that out study tested various levels of setting the high temperatures level defining the extreme heat occurrence. Our study including both climate data and farm input variables finds 27 degrees the best estimate for maize after 2003, rather than 29 degrees used in earlier studies.

Climate change has already had a substantial impact on Chinese agriculture. There is considerable concern about future food security and a stated demand for policies for adaptation to natural constraints imposed by escalating climate change. The project will identify major climate stresses on Chinese agriculture and analyze the potential future consequences of an even warmer future as outlined by recent climate scenarios. Climate effects on yields will be subject to statistical analysis, based on histori c and spatial records, taking development in agricultural resource use and technology into account. A model for analysis of future climate impacts and the effects of adaptation will be developed. Important adaptation measures considered are investments in irrigation infrastructure, changing cropping patterns and introduction of new crop varieties. The results of the statistical study will be combined with additional knowledge from agro-ecological research into a more detailed partial model with emphasis on economic incentives for farming, allowing for a more holistic approach to assess the role of production costs and government interventions. Further, the role of agriculture and climate change in the national economy will be studied by means of a comput able general equilibrium model (CGE). Effects on the national economy occur via prices on food and raw materials, rural-urban migration and external trade. The CGE for China is developed in the project to specifically cover agriculture and the indirect ef fects on the national economy.

Publications from Cristin

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Funding scheme:

KLIMAFORSK-Stort program klima