Strengthening the adaptive capacity of institutions in fisheries

Marine ecosystems around the world are threatened by high fishing pressure and climatic changes, posing major challenges to ensure long-term productivity of resource stocks, without jeopardizing the livelihood of coastal communities and food security. There is a pressing need to analyze how climate change alters marine ecosystem functioning, and the potential of institutions to adapt to those challenges. ADCAP has contributed to this in at least three ways. First, this project has analyzed the adaptive capacity of informal institutions, in particular user arrangements or social norms of resource cooperation with the goal to sustainably harvest the resource. With theoretical models, we have shown that social norms may suddenly collapse if climatic changes occur. With economic experiments we have shown that the potential of social norms to work depends heavily on who benefits from restraining harvesting use, but also on more subtle aspects, including whether the problem is framed positively or negatively. Second, the project has contributed towards an increased understanding how to evaluate the causal effect of environmental policy. Typically, environmental policy is not implemented at random, but in response to environmental changes, making effects and impacts less clear. We have contributed to our understanding regarding how to identify the impacts of environmental policy that are helping towards an evidence based environmental policy. Third, our work has contributed to our understanding of how the fisheries system of the Barents Sea should be managed, in particular Northeast Arctic cod, by building bioeconomic models. We have provided policy advice taking into account that the fish stock may genetically adapt over time, but also that the fleet structure may change over time.

Globally, marine ecosystems are under pressure from high exploitation and climatic changes. Some regions in the world are especially vulnerable, because ecosystem resilience is low, or their institutions are ill-equipped to adapt to a changing climate, fo r example because communities rely largely on fishing as a source of income. Thus, there is a pressing need to analyze how climate change alters marine ecosystem functioning, the fishing sector, and communities in areas that are particular at risk, such a s the Arctic regions of Norway. Our main international partner, the Fisheries Centre of the University of British Columbia, has expertise on global and regional analysis on climate change effects on marine biodiversity and fisheries and hosts a database comprising distribution maps, and ecosystem and catch data for more than 1,000 species. Thus, this project combines global insights from fisheries around the world with valuable Nordic expertise to meet challenges posed by a changing climate, with an emp hasis on the fisheries in the Barents Sea / Lofoten area. We will achieve our research goals by using a unique mix of theoretical modeling and empirical analysis, and benefiting from extensive experience with developing interdisciplinary bioeconomic mode ls among all partners. In particular, instrumental variables will be used to disentangle the causal relationship between environmental conditions, institutions, and economic performance of a fishery. The proposed project will disentangle the various asp ects of adaptation to climate change by analyzing the multiple feedbacks between climate, formal and informal institutions, and ecological complexity, to strengthen the adaptive capacity of institutions that govern marine ecosystems. It will thus clarify the role of risk and uncertainty of climate change, both for managers and stakeholders, and will reveal how management could affect coastal communities, including important equity considerations.