Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics (CBD)

A key challenge for understanding of the ecological consequences of the expected changes in climate is to identify new trends at an early stage as possible. A study by Gamelon and collaborators published in Nature Climate Change used a well-known concept from climate research, Time of Emergence (ToE) which describes the timing of changes in a climate variable so large that a trend cab be considered to have been established. This study used this conceptual approach to analyse how warming of the spring will affect the future trends in the dynamics of a population of great tits in the Netherlands. A surprising result that emerged was that the effects of trends in climate was impossible to detect when single demographic traits such as reproductive rate or survival or individual variation in fitness-related traits were included in the analyses. Only when changes in total population size were analyses such trends were apparent. This implies that simple early warning signals of negative ecological effects of climate change can be difficult to detect and illustrate the importance of availability of good long-term time series of population fluctuations

The Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics (CBD) has developed new theories, statistical tools and mathematical models to predict impacts of natural and anthropogenic changes in the environment on the dynamics of biological diversity at different organismic levels. The central idea was to apply the theoretical framework based on analyses of dynamics of populations of single species in fluctuating environments to also include temporal and spatial variation in genetic composition within populations at a lower organismic level and in structure of communities at a higher level. The project results have been far more extensive than anticipated, resulting in formation of what has been termed the Trondheim School of Quantitative Biology. In particular, the importance of including stochastic effects caused by environmental fluctuations as well as due to random individual differences in reproduction and survival have dramatically changed our understanding of drivers for spatio-temporal dynamics in natural ecosystems.

English version The work of the group of researchers at NTNU in population biology has produced tools to predict future development of single populations, which have contributed to the practical management of endangered or threatened species. It has now become increasingly clear that for two reasons the focus on demography of single species limits a comprehensive understanding of the impact of human activities on biological diversity. First, ecological interactions among species are well known to exert a dramatic influence on community dynamics, although interspecific interactions are largely absent in the prevailing neutral theory of community dynamics1. Second, it has more recently become widely appreciated that adaptive phenotypic evolution by natural selection and developmental plasticity produce potentially important impacts on population persistence and change of geographic range in response to climate change Thus, a new programme of research that integrates demographic and genetic mechanisms affect ing population and community dynamics, is now needed. An integrative effort is necessary because the fields of ecology and evolution are currently pursued largely independently by different researchers, each field only occasionally using the quantitative theoretical framework from the other. Such a programme operating at different organismic levels within a common theoretical framework will contribute to the development of population and conservation biology to become a predictive science. The rationale o f Centre for Dynamics of Biological Diversity (CDBD) is to develop new theories, statistical tools and mathematical models to predict impacts of natural and anthropogenic changes in the environment on the dynamics of biological diversity at different orga nismic (genetic, population and community) levels. This will provide a strong scientific foundation for new methods of conservation, management, and sustainable utilization of biodiversity. Norwegian version Formålet med senteret (Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics (CBD) er å foreta grensesprengende forskning i populasjonsbiologi hvor analyser av dynamikken i tid og rom til ulike biologiske system på ulikt organismenivå (gener, bestand og samfunn) analyseres innenfor et felles stokastisk teoretisk rammever k. Vår målsetning er å identifisere generelle prinsipper og mønster som kan brukes til å forutsi variasjoner i biodiversitet fra relativt enkle karaktertrekk ved systemene. Slike sammenhenger vil gjøre oss i stand til å forstå bedre hvordan ulike former for menneskelig diversitet vil påvirke det biologiske mangfoldet på ulike organismenivåer. Dette vil bli oppnådd gjennom et nært tverrfaglig samarbeid mellom biologer og matematikere. Senteret vil bidra til å forbedre det vitenskapelige grunnlaget knyttet til spørsmål som hvilke faktorer påvirker minimumsstørrelsen av levedyktige bestander, hvordan ulike typer arter kan forventes å respondere til variasjoner i miljøet forårsaket for eksempel av endringer i klima og hvordan bestander skal beskattes på en måte som sikrer ressursen også for framtidige generasjoner. Resultatene som forventes oppnådd ved senteret vil derfor bidra til forbedring av metoder for bevaring, forvaltning og bærekraftig utnytting av det biologiske mangfoldet.