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NORRUSS-Nordområdene og Russland

CLIMate variability and change in the Eurasian ARCtic in the 21st century

Awarded: NOK 4.0 mill.

Global warming is enhanced in the Arctic regions and its surface air temperature has increased to nearly the double of the global average over the last 100 years. Sea ice retreat is increasing during the summer and the total ice volume is diminishing. Sta te of-the-art global climate models are not capable to fully resolve these processes. Errors in these CMIP5 model projections are most pronounced in the Arctic region -specifically in those of joint Russian-Norwegian interest. Assessing the degree of unce rtainty of future Arctic climate projections, particularly caused by natural variability, is a challenging task not fully resolved. CLIMARC will expand the Norwegian-Russian strategic scientific cooperation in the High North on integrative climate researc h. This will be done through (i) collecting and analyze major climate data records for the Arctic region, using these (ii) to analyse, validate and assess the reliability of the climate variability and change in the 20th century generated by global climat e models for the Eurasian Arctic, and (iii) select the "best" models for regional down-scaling of climate projections. Use (iv) Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) and other models to down-scale and perform climate process studies, in order to (v) produce improved regional climate projections for the 21st century for the Eurasian Arctic, with focus on the Barents Sea and Northern Sea Route. CLIMARC will also improve the bilateral Russian-Norwegian cooperation in climate research, through exchange of data, methodology and scientific results, as well as visiting scientists and students. CLIMARC will contribute to the education of the climate scientists of the future through mutual exchange and teaching of young Russian and Norwegian PhD students. Disseminat ion of the CLIMARC scientific results will be prepared for practical applications to the benefit of the society, with focus on the bilateral Russian-Norwegian interests in the Barents Sea and the Northern Sea Route.

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NORRUSS-Nordområdene og Russland