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KLIMAFORSK-Stort program klima

Mitigation of particles and black carbon: Problem or potential for future climate evolution. Assessment through an AeroCom phase III

Alternative title: null

Awarded: NOK 6.5 mill.

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2013 - 2017

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AeroCom-P3 will contribute to reducing the uncertainty in estimates of aerosol radiative forcing (RF), and thus improve our understanding of natural and anthropogenic drivers of climate change. The relationship between human influence and natural variabi lity in the climate system and quantification of uncertainties in global simulations will be addressed. If anthropogenic aerosols are reduced in the future, e.g. as a result of efficient air quality measures, resulting weakened cooling effects may be prob lematic for achieving climate targets. Black carbon (BC) containing particles, on the other hand, have been suggested to warm climate and their reduction could be part of efforts to mitigate present warming. AeroCom-P3 aims to improve, through internation al cooperation and modelling, our understanding of aerosols, aerosol RF and its associated uncertainty as part of the climate system. Our principal questions are: - How can we assemble and use the most essential data to refine aerosol forcing estimates? - Do we understand aerosol abundances in the past and at present with sufficient detail? - Can bulk aerosol optical properties be linked to specific anthropogenic perturbations? - What is the role of aerosols for climate evolution today and in the futur e? The existing AeroCom database will be complemented with new observational data, as well as providing a better multi-model reference for an extended set of aerosol parameters. To provide a new best estimate of aerosol RF, we will analyse aerosol lifetim e and trends including characterization of the regional differences, the BC vertical distribution and absorption, the effect of relative humidity on aerosol RF, and indirect RF. Results will be fed into more reliable future climate scenarios in the existi ng multi-model ensemble associated with AeroCom. Emission scenarios of aerosols will be linked to the different emission pathways for climate stabilization under discussion in international air quality assessments.

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KLIMAFORSK-Stort program klima