The overall objective of this project is the development of a cutting-edge methodology for performing real-time, quantitative risk maps indicating probability of acquiring infectious agents in farmed animals. This method will subsequently be used for pred icting occurrences of outbreaks using pandemic influenza A (H1N1) pdm09 in swine population and salmon pancreas disease subtype 3 in marine fish farms of Norway. These two diseases have been selected as a model for diseases of terrestrial and aquatic anim als, respectively, given their importance regarding livestock economics and public health.
The real-time, quantitative risk maps will provide a precise prediction accounting for characteristics of diseases of interest together with current and historical situations at the specific location as well as surrounding environment and evolutions of background susceptible population in a timely manner. Norway will directly benefit from the research findings. Methods developed in this project will also be applied to animal diseases present in France.
The research exchange will enable physical meetings between the Section for Epidemiology, Norwegian Veterinary Institute and the National Veterinary School (UMR ENVT-INRA 1225) of Toulouse, France. During the first p hysical meeting (one week), data sources and current methods for performing the real-time, quantitative risk map will be reviewed and discussed. Then, the pathway of data-flow and the structure for developing the map will be established. Expected outcomes include innovative methods for real-time quantitative risk mapping of infectious diseases, and dissemination of the findings though scientific conferences and peer-reviewed journals.
A successful application for the Aurora mobility programme will enable the initial development of the project, and strengthen the continuing collaboration between Norwegian and French research teams. Norway and France will both benefit from the findings and the knowledge exchange.