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FRIHUMSAM-Fri prosj.st. hum og sam

Attitudes for peace: Postconflict public opinion

Alternative title: Holdninger for fred: opinionen etter borgerkrig

Awarded: NOK 7.0 mill.

What do people think about the institutions adopted to build peace after civil war? This is the key question that the research project 'Attitudes for peace: Post-Conflict Public Opinion' sought to address by conducting public opinion surveys in three postconflict countries (Guatemala, Nepal, and Northern Ireland), asking about ordinary citizens' thoughts and feelings about different peacebuilding strategies. Focusing on the interplay between institutions, violent conflict and individual attitudes, the project offers insight into the micro-dynamics of violent conflict and individual level determinants of postwar peace. Better knowledge of ordinary people's support for postconflict political institutions, strategies implemented to end war, and political violence, provides useful guidance to policy makers, NGOs, and others on how to adapt peacebuilding strategies to local needs and attitudes, ultimately increasing the chances of building stable peace in postconflict societies. This project investigates two key relationships: (1) How do different peacebuilding strategies influence institutional trust in postwar societies? (2) What is the relation between support for postwar institutions and peace? Central to both questions is the dynamics between the institutions engineered to build peace - the peacebuilding strategies - and citizens' support for these. We argue ? and find ? that variations in peacebuilding strategies affect how people perceive these institutions, and that these perceptions, in turn, are closely related to whether people will support or participate in violent opposition against the government in the future.

A key outcome of the project has been a dataset mapping people's attitudes towards three different peace processes, peacebuilding mechanisms, and post-conflict institutions. The findings have been of interest for the Norwegian government (Ministry of Foreign Affairs) as well as the Police Service of Northern Ireland, among others. The survey tool for mapping these types of attitudes in post-conflict societies have already been adapted in other settings, notably, the monitoring of the Colombian peace process. We expect findings from the project to be useful for scholars and practitioners alike, particularly in designing and implementing different types of peacebuilding and transitional justice mechanisms. We expect insights from the project to be useful for other peace and conflict scholars who consider using survey data in their research design. We also anticipate a series of academic articles to be published in the next couple of years.

Through surveys in three postwar countries (Burundi, Guatemala, and Nepal) we will map individuals' war experiences, perceptions of the previous conflict, trust in political institutions, support for peacebuilding strategies, and support for the use of violence. We claim that stable peace after civil war is more likely when citizens support the peacebuilding strategies, have confidence in the political institutions and perceive them as legitimate, and reject the use of violence as a means to gain political influence. Current theories about stable peace emphasize how e.g power sharing increases rebels' and supporters' perceptions of security and trust in postwar government, reducing the risk of conflict recurrence, yet seldom measure these perceptions directly. We take theories about postconflict peace one step further by explaining the relationship between peacebuilding strategies, including postwar institutions, people's support for these institutions, and postwar peace: How are different peacebuilding strategies perceived by the citizens, and how do these perceptions influence postwar peace? Are people who support the postwar institutions also less likely to reject the use of violence as a means to gain political influence? This project offers insights on the microdynamics of armed conflict, in particular the interplay between institutions, public opinion, and postconflict peace. The project will map attitudes that are conducive to violence, and identify policy strategies, e.g. power sharing, that can mitigate the negative effect of war on public opinion in order to reduce the risk of resuming violence. Better knowledge of ordinary people's support for war and political violence, and the strategies implemented to terminate war provides useful guidance to policy makers, NGOs and others on how to adapt various peacebuilding strategies to local needs and attitudes, ultimately increasing the chances of building stable peace in postconflict societies.

Publications from Cristin

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FRIHUMSAM-Fri prosj.st. hum og sam