Through the CLIMAMOB project, we have studied the interlocking of current travel behaviour in light of weather variations and the possible climate variations and its effect on travel behaviour. These mechanisms have been outlined in different work-packages with the following thematic orientations: 1) Understanding the impact of weather on everyday travel behaviour, 2) Weather perceptions and tolerances, and 3) Projections of climate indicators relevant for travel behaviour, 4) Social trends and driving forces and 5) The future of mobility and mitigation and adaptation strategies.
Effects of weather on everyday travel behaviour was examined for Oslo and Stavanger using data from the National Travel Survey NTS 2013-14. We also undertook a comparative approach to study the topic in Utrecht, Netherlands and Stockholm, Sweden. We found that the effects of weather on other types of travel behaviour are not universal across all study regions. Differences in the statistical significance, magnitude and occasionally even the direction of effects, highlight the importance of geographical context with regard to transport and land use, climate conditions, cultures, habits and adaptations.
Through focus groups and questionnaire surveys conducted in Oslo and Stavanger, we further investigated the role which attitudes, habits and preferences play in adapting travel behaviour in different weather conditions. The analyses explored the extent to which weather tolerance in terms of travel behaviour is related to socio-demographic factors, environmental attitudes, transport habits as well as the climate conditions (coastal/inland) of where people live. The study found that environmental attitudes and travel habits are the factors most strongly related to weather tolerance, independent on how it is measured, when other factors are controlled for. The findings suggest that policy measures to change attitudes/ increase environmental awareness as well as promoting outdoor activity in general can be effective in terms of making people choose active transportation even in poor weather conditions. This might be important steps to reduce the likelihood of car use in the future.
To understand how climate change and resulting weather impacts will affect daily mobility patterns up to the mid of this century, WP1 identified five climate indicators important for present and future weather conditions. The indicators are: Number of 1) Hot days, 2) Very hot days, 3) Wet days, 4) Windy days and 5) Days with snow on the ground. These climate indicators have been elaborated for two selected Norwegian city areas experiencing different climate conditions: Stavanger and Oslo. The present-day weather conditions are based on the historical climate data archives at MET Norway, while projections for future climate development are based on downscaled results from regional climate models produced in the EUROCORDEX initiative.
In the next step, we mapped the driving forces and trends that affect daily mobility in urban areas up to 2050, especially on car ownership and use. An overview and discussion of overall structural, demographic, technological and social trends towards 2050 is presented with a retrospect on the last 30-40 years. The conceptual framework of this discussion is further used to create future scenarios. The methodology adopted in this project, from the linking of travel survey data to weather variable to the last step of creating scenarios, provides a step-wise framework for studying the topic of ?Daily travel behaviour in light of climate change?.
The presentations for the policy-makers, planners and stakeholders have sensitised them to switch from Mitigation to Adaptation strategies. The methodologies developed in the project has been well received by the Research community and takes the field forward in an innovative manner.
We also plan to take the knowledge generated in this project to the Global South. With this is mind, we have submitted a proposal to NORGLOBAL2, which looks at the same problematic in the GS.
Further, the knowledge generated in this project aided in winning the following:
PLATON: PLATform for Open and Nationally accessible climate policy knowledge. A flagship-project financed by the NFR. Tanu Priya Uteng leads the work package titled - Emissions from transport and remaining non-ETS sources.
DIGMOB: Digitalisation and mobility: Smart and sustainable transport in urban agglomerations, financed by NFR. Tanu Priya Uteng leads the work package titled - Mapping and analyses of urban passenger mobility.
The recent report from IPCC verifies previous projections of temperature increases and increased precipitation in Northern Europe. At the same time, Norwegian Travel Surveys and international studies demonstrate large variations in transport mode choice and mobility pattern across seasons and weather conditions. Climate change is likely to have a major impact on daily travel behaviour, and this needs to be considered in strategic planning and policies.
In the Norwegian National Transport Plan it is stated that the projected growth in passenger transport in large urban areas should be carried by increased use of public transport, walking and cycling. This calls for a change in peoples' travel behaviour. In order to realize this goal, the government need to implement a variety of measures to stimulate environmentally friendly transport. However, this plan and the general debate on how to obtain zero growth in passenger car travel leaves out one important aspect: the potential impact of climate change on peoples' mode preferences and mobility patterns.
This project is motivated by the need for increased knowledge of how climate change will affect daily mobility patterns, and in particular mode choice, up to 2050. Based on analyses of survey data, climate change projections, and scenario techniques, the project will assess measures and policy instruments to adjust/correct the trajectory of travel behaviour.
The project is organized in six work packages. The project has a comparatively perspective and the geographical context is two of the largest cities of Norway. A comparison will be done with Utrecht (the Netherlands) and Tallinn (Estonia). A multi-method approach will be use and several disciplines will work in the project. Results will be published as articles in refereed journals, research reports and a synthesis report, together with presentations in popular publications, at seminars and conferences. The project will be conducted in dialogue with stakeholders.
