Sustainable management of renewable resources in a changing environment: an integrated approach across ecosystems

In this project, three of the leading Norwegian research groups in ecology and evolution (CEES at the University of Oslo, CBD at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology in Trondheim -NTNU-, and the Department of Arctic and Marine Biology at the University of Tromsø) collaborate to study how climate change affects how species can be harvested in a sustainable way from an ecosystem perspective. The project focused on 7 study systems from terrestrial (1. domestic reindeer, 2. reindeer and mountain fox on Svalbard, 3. ptarmigan in mountains and tundra, 4. invasive red fox populations in the north, 5. moose and small game in boreal forest), freshwater (6. Lake Mjøsa), and marine ecosystems (7. Barents Sea). SUSTAIN aims to improve management strategies to ensure sustainable exploitation, while avoiding negative changes, of ecosystems. To achieve this, SUSTAIN follows the framework of a "strategic foresight protocol": a structured process in which scientific results are used to explore possible future scenarios, as well as their implications for management measures that promote a better future. The project is developed in collaboration with a panel of end users consisting of industries, administration, and voluntary organizations, to ensure that the project results can be applied directly to relevant issues. In addition to establishing a new national network, this project contributes to educating a new generation of biologists and research leaders. The many produced results have been presented in conferences and published in both scientific journals and popular science media. Here we present a summary: (1) Some results show population status of fish in the Barents Sea, moose, reindeer, and ptarmigan, in continental Norway and Svalbard. Here, mathematical models were produced to understand harvesting in varying environments, and in populations with individuals of different ages or sizes. (2) Other studies developed theoretical models to explore different harvesting strategies and tested them with data from reindeer or fish. (3) Some of the results are about space- and time-related interactions between species, and how this affects harvesting, especially in the Barents Sea. (4) Some studies have researched climate effects on food chains, for example, changes in ground and sea ice patterns, the effect of extreme weather conditions on population dynamics, and synchronization of population dynamics at different scales. (5) The combined effects of climate, harvesting and management were also investigated in several systems. The results emphasized the importance of evidence-based population management, as well as the need for ecosystem-based monitoring to keep up with climate change. The final period of SUSTAIN focuses on completing the various doctoral degrees and continuing to publish and disseminate the results. In addition, the most relevant findings of the project are collected in the form of a special issue in the journal Climate Research. A few months after the end of the project, a joint conference will be organized with end users to present and discuss further use of the results of SUSTAIN.

SUSTAIN has resulted in a large body of scientific publications and other outputs that provide information guiding management decisions for harvested populations in Norway. While stakeholder engagement during the process varied between study systems, the science has been produced and is available to managers. Outcomes and impacts of this are: 1. guidance to improve decision making on managing harvested populations in Norway; 2. a new generation of young researchers with experience directing their scientific interests at issues of public interest/need; 3. the production of a collection of papers by SUSTAIN scientists that can be given to policy makers and managers; 4. SUSTAIN support for a final seminar, organized by NFR, to bring together scientists and managers (roughly scheduled for winter / spring 2021).

In this project, three of the strongest Norwegian scientific groups within ecology and evolution are joining forces to study combined impacts of climate change across marine, freshwater, and terrestrial ecosystems. These ecosystems are currently all affected by major anthropogenic stressors in addition to climate change, such as harvesting. Yet, the interactive effects of these stressors remain poorly understood, and they are generally studied separately within each system. Such interactions may alter ecosystem functions and processes in previously unexpected ways, also impacting the ability to provide ecosystem services. This project aims to increase our knowledge of these important issues, and develop improved frameworks for management strategies to ensure sustainable exploitation and promote ecosystem resilience and functioning. To achieve this general goal we will follow the general framework of a strategic foresight protocol, and employ a joint effort of theoretical development and empirical analyses of high quality data from three empirical case studies, one terrestrial, one marine, and one freshwater ecosystem. This project will establish a new national network including the strongest environmental research groups in Norway. A new generation of environmental biologists and research leaders will achieve a broad training by working on different aspects of the project within different ecosystems, in close interaction with researchers at all the partner institutions. The end users of the project are environmental policy and decision makers. These will be involved in the strategic foresight process by the establishment of a user panel composed by key management and Norwegian policy bodies.