China in Indian Strategic thinking

The project studies contemporary developments in India's security policy within the larger framework of geopolitical developments affecting South Asia, more particularly the rise of China. India's geographic location, size, population and resources have ensured the country a leading position in South Asia. This position is presently being challenged by China. A main question is how China's rise influences Indian security policy. Today's Sino-Indian relationship is complex. While economic co-operation is increasing, the countries also have a history of conflict and disagreement. China and India's recent growth has changed the geopolitical dynamics, and will continue to do so in the foreseeable future. The project includes two main aspects. The first pertains to how China's expansion influences India's relations with its immediate neighbours. Two topics, in particular, stand out. The first is how Indian approaches to Pakistan and the Kashmir issue are influenced by the China-Pakistan axis. The second is concerned with how India approaches its neighbours in the north and east: Nepal, Bangladesh and Myanmar. In recent years, India has prioritized its so-called "neighbourhood first" strategy, under which India seeks to improve its standing among its South Asian neighbours. To a large extent, this strategy is a response to China's growing influence in India's neighbourhood. The second main aspect is concerned with how India seeks to balance the expansion of China by entering strategic partnerships with countries outside the South Asian region, most prominently with Japan and the USA. This latter aspect also has to be understood within the framework of India's so-called Act East-strategy. This strategy emphasizes stronger cooperation with countries in South East Asia and East Asia, both economically and strategically. The main challenge to India is that it needs to balance its security needs with economic considerations. China is India's main trading partner, and India does not seem ready for entering alliances that may antagonize China. The recent years have seen several changes with regard to India's approach to alignments. India seems to prefer entering partnerships with selected countries and to work through multilateral channels. In the spring of 2018, Indian Prime Minister, Narenda Modi, stated that India would continue to engage with China, expand existing partnerships with ASEAN, at the same time as he warned against great power rivalry in Asia.

Insights developed during the project period are visible in the form of three lectures in international conferences and four articles: two currently under review, two to be published in April 2019. Insights developed during the project period have been conveyed to the general public (interviews and articles in the media), to business communities (3 events) and policy briefings (2 events) with the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The project's impact may thus lead to better informed political decisions as well as up-to-date knowledge for business communities operating in the region. Two more long-term outcomes of the project are the establishment of two research networks: The Network for Indo-Pacific Analysis and a research collaboration concerned with India's maritime ambitions. Thus, the insights generated under this project will hopefully lead to the establishment of new research projects that can generate new insights concerning Indian strategic thinking.

This project will study recent and contemporary developments in India's securtiy policy within the larger framework of geopolitical developments affecting South Asia, and especially the rise of China. More specifically, the Project looks at Indian security policy in light of India's relations with China and increased Chinese influence in what has traditionally been India's sphere of interest. To what extent and how does the Sino-Indian relation, as well as China's growth, affect Indian security policy?