#71049 European perceptions of climate change: Scepticism, energy preferences and societal transformation

What is required to create a Europe with low greenhouse gas emissions and that is ready to address the effects of climate change? How worried about climate change are people in the UK, Germany, France and Norway and how do they view its impacts? When, if at all, do they expect to feel the impacts of climate change in their country: now or in 50 years? Do people perceive a strong scientific consensus on anthropogenic climate change? Do these Europeans support a shift towards cleaner forms of energy, and what political strategies for addressing climate change do they also support? One important aspect for the societal changes needed to reach a low-carbon future is public understanding and support for climate policies. Scientists already know relatively well what the publics of individual European countries think about climate change, but the designs of such studies have rarely been coordinated. The European Perceptions of Climate Change (EPCC) study surveyed for the very first time the in-depth, nationally representative opinions on climate change, climate policy and future energy options of over 4,000 members of the public in four countries that are central to the efforts in Europe to construct a low carbon energy system of the future. A key finding was that majorities in all four participating countries believe that climate change is happening, and there is broad support for a range of different policy measures to address it. In particular, the study found that the majority (over 80% in all 4 countries) believe that the world's climate is changing, and a similar proportion think that it is at least partly caused by human activity. Furthermore, six in ten (60%) believe that we are already feeling the effects of climate change, and associate the main effects with disruption to weather in their country (more storms and floods, unpredictable weather, and hotter/dryer spells). At the same time, only minority percentages (24% in Germany, 30% UK, 33% France, and 35% in Norway) believe that there is a strong scientific consensus on climate change. As regards support for key policy measures, at least two thirds support their country being part of the 2015 Paris international climate change agreement. Majorities in all four countries support spending public money to prepare now for the impacts of climate change, and to help developing nations cope with extreme weather. Renewable energy (solar, offshore and onshore wind, and hydropower) remain the most popular energy sources in all countries, and majorities of 69% or over support using public money to subsidise renewable energy sources. For the very first time the survey probed beliefs about climate change and migration, a topic that had attracted some media comment during 2016 in the light of the European refugee crisis. We found that a clear majority in all four countries dispute that climate change is one of the causes of the high number of refugees coming to Europe. However, 30% (in the UK), 37% (France), 39% (Germany) and 57% (in Norway) did think that climate change will lead to more migration to their country in the future. In sum, most people in this large study recognise that climate change is happening, and support for the need to tackle it remains high among respondents. There were only low levels of climate scepticism present in any of our four nations. Still, the findings suggest that while the public's awareness of climate change is fairly well developed, more work needs to be done by governments, the scientific community and the media to communicate climate science in a way that is accurate and engaging. The survey was informed by an initial study to map the different societal, economic and cultural contexts found in each country. Each country has a different profile of emissions, notably in the electricity sector. For example, the UK and Germany have numerous coal- and gas-fired power plants whereas France has mostly nuclear power and Norway mostly hydropower. The choice of four countries -- the UK, Germany, Norway and France -- was made with a particular view on differences with respect to the countries´ electricity sectors. Throughout the project, we have engaged with stakeholders such as central and local governments, businesses and NGOs who have an interest in the topic of climate change and energy. These stakeholders formed an international panel that guided our research questions and helped us bring our findings back to the public. The study was co-ordinated by Cardiff University in collaboration with the University of Stuttgart in Germany, Institut Symlog in France, the University of Bergen and the Uni Research Rokkan Centre in Norway, and Climate Outreach in the UK. The research was funded primarily by the national research councils of the four participating countries under the JPI-Climate programme, with fieldwork undertaken in all four countries during June 2016 by Ipsos MORI.

Public engagement with climate change, and support for policies to tackle it, is critical in creating a climate-proof Europe. While attitudes to climate change have been well documented in individual European countries, their designs have never been coordinated. Also, each nation has its own unique sociopolitical context and energy infrastructure that need to be taken into account to make meaningful comparisons. There is an urgent need to connect the within-country knowledge that does exist, conduct rigorous cross-national research, and synthesis public perceptions at a European level. In a two year project involving an inter-disciplinary team from the UK, Germany, Norway and France, we will address this need through: directly comparable and nationally representative surveys of public opinion; an in-depth analyses of the sociopolitical context in each participating nation; and an innovative international stakeholder panel for co-constructing the sociopolitical analyses and disseminating findings. Whilst there have been some ad-hoc surveys of European public opinion, no theoretically well-justified cross-national analysis of climate change and energy perceptions has ever been conducted. The project will ground the survey findings in sociopolitical factors relevant to public perceptions, allowing robust international comparisons, and producing a detailed and rich source of knowledge for policy-makers. Outputs will include cross-national data on climate change and energy preferences and a series of recommendations for enhancing public engagement with climate change. We will take an innovative approach to stakeholder engagement.An international panel will co-construct the socio-political analysis that informs the survey design, and will then play a central role in a coordinated programme of dissemination and outreach. This will ensure that the project has the maximum possible impact and contributes essential knowledge in the transition towards a climate-proof Europe.