Urban passenger mode shift and cross modal demand effects

Mode shift is at the core of sustainable transport in all world cities; yet we know comparatively little about it. The Crossmodal project has sought to shed light onto this knowledge gap. Crossmodal studies cross-modal demand effects in urban passenger transport, that is, the demand effect on one transport mode of an alteration to another mode., e.g. how petrol prices affect bus demand. Such knowledge is crucial for policy makers who want to change the transport system towards a more sustainable modal mix. Methodologically, the project has focused on cross-elasticities of demand, diversion factors, mode choice and suppressed/induced demand. These are central concepts in economics, modelling/engineering and mathematics. The project has developed a database of cross-elasticity evidence from around the world, which, as the project comes to its end, consists of some 1200 observations. This database has enabled an overview article, "Triggers of Urban Passenger Mode Shift - State of the Art and Model Evidence" and a meta-analysis, "Competition and substitution between public transport modes". A third major meta-study is currently under publication in Transportation Research Part A. These studies have provided numerous insights that were not systematically documented before. A general finding relates to the fact that there are strong limits as to how much the quality of one mode can affect the demand for another mode - e.g. the impact on car use of reducing public transport fares. That said, we find travel time elements to have the strongest impact across transport modes. If the aim is to reduce car use, it is more effective to improve public transport travel times than to reduce their fares. The project has also analysed mode choice behavior (diversion factors) in the Greater Oslo region in the article, "What factors affect cross modal substitution - Evidences from the Oslo Area" and performed a survey among the Norwegian Automotive Association"s members as documented in the paper, "Modal substitution in urban transport: a stated preference approach". Evidence from this survey is further analysed in forthcoming papers about 'not travel' as behavioural response, and about symmetry in diversion factors. These analyses show that public transport passengers react more strongly to changes in car attributes than car users react to public transport improvements. We also find that different attributes (travel time and travel cost) affect different passenger segments and impact mode choice differently. For example, increased car travel time induces more people to shift to public transport than increased car costs do. As the Crossmodal project comes to its end in August 2018, the project has published five approved scientific articles (according to the Norwegian system) and one approved report, with one-two further manuscripts the making. Results have been presented to five international conferences and a further paper may be accepted for a 2019 World Conference. Results are also presented in various popular science channels, and the entire project will be summarised in a TØI report this autumn. The project has maintained focus on stakeholders throughout, with an active user group which has followed the project. The project has been an international cooperation between TØI (Norway) and Leeds ITS (UK). An expert panel has overseen the scientific quality of the project.

Prosjektet har opplevd stor interesse for arbeidene og funnene, både i inn- og utland. I tillegg har vi fått flere henvendelser om dataene som prosjektet har generert, som forskerkollegaer i utlandet har brukt, og ønsker å bruke, i sin forskning. Interessen for prosjektresultatene fordeler seg nokså jevnt mellom brukere (myndigheter, aktører, tilbydere) og akademia. Vi har åpenbart bidratt tiil å kaste lys på et område som i stor grad har vært kunnskapshull til nå.

Mode shift is at the core of sustainable transport in all world cities; yet we know comparatively little about it. Crossmodal studies cross-modal demand effects in urban passenger transport. While there is ample evidence of within-mode demand effects, e.g. the patronage growth following 10% bus fare reduction, we know very little about where these new passengers came from. The answer to this is crucial for policy makers who want to change the transport system towards a more sustainable modal mix, and can be the difference between success and failure. Knowledge and evidence of demand effects across transport modes are important, yet generally lacking. Crossmodal fills this gap. A main focus is on the substitution between transport modes, i.e. the diversion factor. Crossmodal scrutinises the diversion factor both theoretically and empirically to better understand mode-switching behaviour. The project develops and enhances the theoretical understanding of these issues, and establishes new empiricism based on local data. This enables informed policy design for the achievement of real improvements in urban passenger transport. Methodologically, the study focuses on cross-elasticities of demand, diversion factors and mode choice. These are central concepts in economics, modelling/engineering and mathematics. We bring in elements of political science for formulation and implementation of policies and goals. The project has strong focus on stakeholders and has already established a group of organisations and people with strong interest in this project. This forum is the hub for external communication. Communication will also happen through scientific and popular science publications. The project is an international cooperation between TØI (Norway) and Leeds ITS (UK). An expert panel oversees the scientific quality of the project. It brings in the global expertise in this field and is a great asset to the project and gives Norway access to the global state of art.