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KLIMAFORSK-Stort program klima

Quantifying climate Impacts of Future Forest management strategies in Norway

Alternative title: Klimaeffekter av fremtidige forvaltningsstrategier for norsk skog

Awarded: NOK 10.0 mill.

Project Number:

254966

Application Type:

Project Period:

2016 - 2022

Funding received from:

The role of boreal forests in climate mitigation Conserving and increasing the carbon uptake and stock in forests is a key mitigation measure to limit global warming in line with the ambitions of the Paris Agreement. Global emission pathways consistent with limiting the global temperature increase below 1.5°C and 2°C rely heavily on land-based measures through varying degrees of afforestation/reforestation, reduced deforestation, and bioenergy. This in turn implies significant changes to the terrestrial ecosystems. Alternative management models and land cover changes can result in different changes in the detailed characteristics of the forest, such as structure and extent. In addition to the update and release of CO2, such changes in vegetation will in turn affect climate through a range of mechanisms, including through increased or decreased surface albedo, or reflectivity. These need to be considered for a comprehensive picture of the interaction between vegetation and climate and net effects of land-based climate measures. Through the project «Quantifying climate Impacts of Future Forest management strategies in Norway (QUIFFiN)», scientists from CICERO, NTNU and NIBIO have worked to strengthen the knowledge about how vegetation changes following forest management can affect climate when considering a broad set of relevant mechanisms. Such knowledge is needed to understand the potential role of Norwegian forests for meeting the 2°C target. Several different approaches and modeling tools of varying complexity have been used, including environmental systems analysis, empirical and semi-empirical approaches, and high-resolution climate modeling. Results from the project show that large-scale vegetation changes across Europe, including Fennoscandia, can influence local temperature and precipitation, and that these effects are typically regional-specific. Analyses also highlight remaining scientific challenges, such as improved representation of snow in regional climate models for reduced uncertainty in the climate response to vegetation changes. Another study suggests that large-scale changes in forest cover can increase or decrease the amount of so-called secondary organic particles in the atmosphere, particles which affects the Earth’s energy balance. The albedo effect can be particularly important at high, northern latitudes, affecting the net climate effect of vegetation changes. However, through a critical review of existing approaches, it is demonstrated that weighting the effect of albedo changes against that due to CO2 fluxes is challenging due to spatiotemporal differences. Furthermore, calculations suggest a wide range in future scenarios for wood outtake volumes in Norway, depending on underlying assumptions about socio-economic development and climate and energy polices. Different management strategies, such as more intensive harvest and species change, can be used to meet increased demand for wood and higher outtakes. Including detailed information about forest characteristics, structure, and extent is important for quantification of subsequent climate effects. Moreover, assessing the local climate impacts of vegetation changes requires confidence in the models' ability to represent local conditions. Sustainable land management is critical in light of the many demands for terrestrial ecosystem resources, not only for climate mitigation, but also for bioeconomy, recreation, and biodiversity conservation. The outcomes from QUIFFiN contribute with knowledge of relevance for sustainable forestry in Norway.

Advancement of the research frontier: QUIFFiN researchers have conducted excellence-driven research and analysis documented in international peer-reviewed journals of good visibility. Methods and datasets developed within the project have potential for use in further studies. New scientific networks: QUIFFiN participants have through the project established connections with the LUCAS (Land Use and Climate Across Scales) initiative on coordinated regional climate model experiments, which is a part of the Cordinated Downscaling Experiments (CORDEX). This is expected to open new research opportunities and provide an important network in the field of land modeling. Shaping the research agenda: While the project has led to important findings, it has also identified remaining uncertainties, as well as provided methods and frameworks that can be applied in further studies. Members of the project are already involved in a new EU project on related topics (PathFinder - Nibio) and we expect the project to further contribute to shaping the research agenda. Strengthening the scientific knowledge basis: QUIFFiN has produced knowledge of relevance for assessing the net climate effects of changes in vegetation and land cover, hence delivering information of relevance to e.g. decision makers and other stakeholders, and policy processes related to land management or climate mitigation strategies. Results can also be expected to be taken up in future international assessments (e.g. seventh IPCC cycle or more topical assessments of land use/land management). Enhanced awareness in the broader public: Through undertaken and planned dissemination of the project topic and results, QUIFFiN is expected to contribute to enhanced awareness among the broader public of the complex role of forests for climate, environment, and society.

The international community has agreed to limit the global temperature increase to 2°C above the pre-industrial levels. This will require a large-scale shift away from the fossil economy towards one based on renewable materials and energy, such as biomass. Forests can play multiple roles in climate mitigation, such as sequestering carbon or provision of energy. Changes in forest management can alter the distribution, structure, and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, which in turn affect climate. Whether a certain type of land use or management change will result in a net cooling or warming contribution for the regional and global climate is highly dependent on site specific conditions and vegetation. As a consequence detailed data about vegetation characteristics is essential. Moreover, the quantification of regional and global climate responses requires both high resolution modeling and inclusion of a broad set of the mechanisms which affect climate on different time scales. Currently, little or no information exist about the regional climate response to changes in forest cover and structure following future forest management strategies. This limits our ability to confidently determine which management options lead to climate benefits. By combining environmental systems analysis and detailed ecosystem modeling with high-resolution climate modeling, QUIFFiN will: - Provide detailed data for vegetation changes under various future strategies for management of the Norwegian forest - Improve our holistic understanding and quantify climate impacts from the regional to global scale following vegetation changes in a Norway - Identify possible win-win solutions of forest management practices for simultaneous provision of bio-resources and mitigation of climate change QUIFFiN aims to provide robust scientific knowledge of relevance for designing policies for climate mitigation and sustainable management of Norwegian forest resources.

Publications from Cristin

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Funding scheme:

KLIMAFORSK-Stort program klima