Mobile Animal Ranging Assessment Model Barents Sea

Oil and gas exploration and production can affect the marine life in the Barents Sea. By predicting movement patterns of marine animals, the MARAMBS model assists the industry in planning activities in the Arctic region in an environmentally sustainable way. Risk assessments are necessary in the planning of oil and gas activities. Such assessments commonly involve impact evaluation of underwater sounds from seismic surveys, oil spills or other impacts on marine life. A special challenge for the impact analysis are free ranging animals such as whales and seabirds. They move in complex patterns that depend on a large number of external factors, such as oceanic currents and fronts. Different from conventional assessments, MARAMBS takes into account a more dynamic animal mode by evaluating how movement patterns of marine animals relate to oceanographic variables and human impacts. Decision makers and other non-experts can readily understand the visual MARAMBS results that are available on a web platform. MARAMBS combines dynamic habitat and animal movement modelling, evaluating the relationship between the whereabouts of the animals and external environmental variables. The dynamic habitat modelling correlates observations of animals with ocean parameters to identify areas of high habitat suitability. The movement modelling, commonly named Agent Based Modeling, simulates the animals' movement based on real observations. MARAMBS succeeded in identifying the available data for known distribution of key species in the Barents Sea. This was done together with the collaboration partners of the project, The Norwegian Institute for Nature Research and the Institute of Marine Research. As the study progressed, we included more data from ongoing studies, which has enabled us to get a better validation of the results. After an intense development and testing phase, the web platform is now available for users. It includes an easy to use interface to visualize the results of the habitat modelling and the agent based modelling. There are routines for downloading data for risk assessments. It is also possible to perform noise and oil spill impact assessments using the tool. A very detailed user guide and full documentation provides background with a special focus on validation of the results.

Ecosystem-based management of human activities depends on knowledge of the distribution of vulnerable species on the one hand and on information of effects of stressors on marine life on the other. However, in many cases, knowledge of the distribution is not readily available for free ranging animals, such as seabirds and marine mammals. Better spatial and timely resolution of animal movement is vital to undertake specific and tailor made mitigation. Through this project, a software tool (MARAMBS) has been developed to describe and explain the presence, movement patterns and response to stresses for the most vulnerable marine species (marine mammals and seabirds) in the Barents Sea. The tool is delivered as an online software application for the industry to use when planning activities in the Barents Sea. It is based on cutting edge technology such as dynamic habitat models that are describing the relationship between occurrence of marine life and environmental variables.

Ecosystem based management of human activities depends on knowledge onof the distribution of vulnerable species on the one hand and information on effects of stressors on marine life on the other. Yet, in many cases, this information is not readily available for animals that are free-ranging, such as seabirds and marine mammals. This uncertainty makes it difficult for the Oil and Gas industry to plan their activities in an environmentally sound manner. This project will develop a software tool (MARAMBS) to describe and explain the presence and movement patterns of the most vulnerable marine species (mammals and birds) in the Barents Sea. It is based on cutting edge technology such as dynamic habitat models that are describing the relationship between occurrence of marine life and environmental variables. Furthermore, we will use agent based modelling to investigate species movements. The area of focus for this project is the Barents Sea with special attention to the ice edge. The project will make use of available information gained by several Norwegian academic institutes but will analyse it in innovative ways in a model that is ideally suited for de-risking Norwegian O&G industry. The MARAMBS model will help close a gap of knowledge on the movement and presence of relevant species of concern in the Barents Sea and how they react to oil spills and underwater noise. This increased knowledge can be used to contribute to environmentally sound exploration and production activities in the Barents Sea and is thus anchored in national strategies and other framework directives (EU) for the protection of the Arctic. These strategies are also at the heart of the PETROMAKS2 program which aims at the development of environmentally sustainable technologies.