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POLARPROG-Polarforskningsprogram

STOCKSHIFT - Spatial shifts of marine stocks and the resilience of polar resource management

Alternative title: STOCKSHIFT - Forskyvninger av marine bestander og motstandsdyktigheten i polar ressursforvaltning

Awarded: NOK 10.0 mill.

Three questions have guided this project: How does climate change affect abundance and spatial distribution of Polar fish stocks? What are the impacts on the effectiveness of regional fisheries regimes? And how does continued effectiveness require adaptation within or among such institutions? On the first question we have reviewed existing science on climate changes in the project's ocean areas, contributed to tools development by the map clients/data bases BarMar and NorMar, and used a downscaled climate model to study effects of changes in physical parameters, like temperature, salinity, ice- and light conditions on growth rates and distribution of important commercial stocks. Our results support expectations of a future northward shift of Northeast Arctic cod with a larger share in Russian waters but indicate that spawning conditions will remain far better on the Norwegian side. Our actor-based modeling of Norwegian spring-spawning herring indicates considerable future fluctuations in zonal attachment, also the share available in areas that are demanding management-wise, such as Smutthavet and waters around Svalbard. In the Southern Ocean higher sea temperatures, acidification and UV radiation and less sea ice are expected to reinforce the reported poleward shift of the krill stock, most probably implying significant reduction of habitats suitable for spawning, hatching, larvae survival and juvenile growth. Our work on the second question, the effects on management, differentiates among scientific advice, regulation, and enforcement. In all three ocean areas advisory bodies are asked to integrate knowledge on the effects of climate change but actual advances are limited. The management implications of observed and modeled changes have been controversial. In the Norwegian Sea that is due to the zonal attachment principle, which implies that the effects on quota allocations depend on whether changes are expected to be durable or transitory. In the Southern Ocean regime the controversy is embedded in the tension between preservation and harvesting interests, with Norway in a bridge-building role. A general answer to the third question is that the adaptability of regional management regimes has been modest so far. A mix of vague international rules on participation and allocation, extensive consensual decision making, and restrictive practices towards newcomers often create allocative deadlocks and unilateral quotas in excess of scientific advice. Obvious cases are the herring and mackerel agreements in the Norwegian Sea, with outcomes reflecting variation in coastal-state offers and vulnerability to sanctions rather than international norms. Similarly for the EU-Norway dispute over snow crab: the issue was initiated by narrow industry interests backed by a few Baltic states; that narrowness facilitates Commission efforts to prevent escalation to levels that might endanger heavy EU interests in the bilateral quota swaps. Firm common interests and longstanding institutions are important in the Barents Sea too. Our studies of Russian official documents, media reports and expert commentaries reveal no signs that the northward shifts of cod and haddock generate domestic pressure for claiming more of the quotas. The new findings on the scarcity of good spawning grounds in Russian waters will point in the same direction. The adaptability of regional regimes is shaped also by private certification schemes, notably the Marine Stewardship Council (MSC). Since around 2010, all the major commercial stocks in Polar waters have obtained MSC certification, on conditions to be met within the 5-year period of the certificate's validity, with annual audits. Especially in the Southern Ocean, the effect has been significant: the toothfish and the krill fisheries had many conditions attached to them concerning data on stock size, uncertainty of ecosystem effects and IUU fishing. In the Barents Sea, main issues have been the effects of trawls on bottom habitats. To achieve and retain MSC labels, Russian fishing companies have pledged to not enter new fishing areas in northern parts of the Barents Sea until an appropriate scientific basis is in place. In the Norwegian Sea, the key MSC issue has been lack of coastal state agreements on total quotas of mackerel in line with scientific advice. The coastal-state fishing industries have therefore become firm pushers for compromise ? but with variable success. The complex of institutions important to fisheries regulation and enforcement is expanding and so is the need for good interplay among them. Marine area protection involves environmental commissions, port-state measures require adaptation to trade rules, and efforts to combat IUU fishing now includes bodies responsible for countering drugs, trafficking and money laundering. Often one-sided adaptation, less demanding than coordination, proves adequate for managing such regime interplay.

Prosjektet har bidratt til å styrke av de tverrfaglige forbindelsene mellom de norske partnerne og våre utenlandske; dette har skjedd primært gjennom samskriving av en rekke fagfellevurderte arbeider, felles presentasjoner på internasjonale konferanser, en rekke prosjektmøter og samordning rundt den felles prosjektboken. Virkningene av prosjektresultatene på fagfeller, brukere og den bredere offentlighet er styrket ved at vi fortløpende har kommunisert prosjektfunn og verktøy vi har videreutviklet til brukere gjennom våre roller i rådgivningsprosesser, private sertifiseringesprosesser, observatører og delegater i internasjonale forhandlinger, uformell deltaker i særlig arktiske styringsprosesser og gjennom såkalte stakeholder-møter med representanter for norske myndigheter og næring.

Climate change and other environmental factors are currently causing variability in the spatial distribution of fish stocks in polar waters. In the Barents Sea, cod is expanding northeastwards, while in the Norwegian Sea significant changes in abundance, distribution and migration patterns can be observed in pelagic species such as mackerel. In the Southern Ocean, the combined effect of increasing temperatures with associated declines in sea ice, ocean acidification and changes in circulation is likely to affect the geographical distribution of krill. These developments put established management regimes under pressure. In this truly interdisciplinary research endeavour, world-leading marine biologists, international lawyers and political scientists join efforts to study the resilience of Arctic and Antarctic marine resource management institutions to large-scale shifts of major marine stocks. How is climate change affecting distributional shifts of polar fish stocks - are there any general patterns of movement, adaptability and recruitment? To what extent do shifts in migratory patterns influence the fit between the spatial scope of existing national and international management regimes and the fishing activities they seek to govern - and how will they influence the effectiveness of the regimes? How does continued effectiveness require adaptation within the complexes of institutions that co-govern commercial activities in polar marine ecosystems? Based on case studies from the Barents Sea, the Norwegian Sea and the Southern Ocean, a meta-analysis will be performed to synthesize the overall impact of climate, fisheries and species interaction. Finally, the project will explore how comparative case study analysis and agent-based modelling (ABM) can be combined to examine institutional responses to plausible ecosystem development trajectories.

Publications from Cristin

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Funding scheme:

POLARPROG-Polarforskningsprogram