Can cooperative Russian and Western Arctic policies survive the current crisis in Russian-Western relations?

The project was to test whether the tensions in relations between Russia and its Western partners caused by Russia?s actions in Ukraine in 2014 could have negative impact on the level and content of cooperation between Russia and the Western partners in the Arctic. The project team was involved in several studies on various domestic and international aspects of Russian policy towards the Arctic. The main assumption tested in the project was that Russia?s Arctic policy and approach towards cooperation with other Arctic actors was a function of the policy choices made by Russia on the domestic front, as well as Russia?s responses to Arctic actions undertaken by other Arctic actors. The project team focused on the study of Russian Arctic governance and policy-making process which has resulted in several articles on these questions. The project examined also how interactions between Russia and other Arctic actors have shaped all actors policy choices and their understandings and interpretations of approaches to cooperation in the Arctic. The main conclusions from the project are as follows: ? Russian Arctic governance should be understood as a result of interaction of various formal and informal networks involving actors with various Arctic stakes and interests. The Arctic governance should be interpreted within the broader framework describing specific traits of the Russian policy-making environment. Due to the high level of centralization of policymaking in Russia the main goals of Arctic policy are set in Moscow and then implemented in the Arctic regions. The level of foreign actors? involvement in Arctic policy in Russia is a function of Russia?s state priorities in foreign and security policy, but there are also instances where foreign actors are allowed to play a role in the Russian Arctic for pragmatic reasons, for instance when external funding and expertise is needed for development of Arctic resources, like in the case of Yamal LNG. ? Russia?s cooperation with other actors in the Arctic has been negatively influenced by Russia?s actions towards Ukraine in 2014 and by following tensions in relations with the West. Russia is increasingly viewed as a security challenge, also in the Arctic context. Other Arctic states take measures to mitigate Russia-related risks, also in the Arctic. This in turn fuels Russia?s suspicion and makes Russia implement other measures to address what Russia views as growing security concerns, releasing negative security dilemma dynamics in the region. The hope that cooperation in the Arctic could be ?sheltered? from negative developments in Russian relations with West has not materialized. The 2014 crisis has dealt a blow to Arctic cooperation and resulted in the lack of mutual trust in relations between Russia and its Western partners in the Arctic. Rebuilding trust and returning to ?business as usual? cooperation between Russia and the West in the Arctic will take time and will be a function of the developments in relations between Russia and the West in other arenas. By producing new knowledge on Russian Arctic policymaking and the impact of the 2014 crisis on Russia?s relations with the West the project provides a better understanding of priorities in Russia?s foreign and security policy in general and in this specific geographical and institutional context. In addition, the project examined the role and the interaction of domestic and international factors in the process of formulation and implementation of Russian Arctic policy. Although the project has focused on Russian Arctic policy, its main findings improve our ? and the Western policymakers ? ability to better understand and predict Russia?s actions in the field of foreign and security policy in more general terms, which may in turn improve our ability to reduce the risk of an unintended and dangerous conflict in relations between Russia and the West. The main outputs of the project are published and planned publications authored or co-authored by members of the project team, seminars and conferences where the findings of the project were presented. The main outcome of the project is a better understanding of the Russian policymaking environment and priorities in Russian foreign and security policy in the Arctic and in general, which is important in the broader policymaking context. Realization of the CANARCT project has strengthened cooperation between Norwegian and Russian academic communities and the project team plans to develop new joint projects to continue this important and fruitful research cooperation on topics of mutual interest.

Project achieved its primary and secondary objectives by conducting planned research and activities, making results of the research available through publishing and presentation of preliminary and final findings at the planned seminars and conferences. The main project outcome is a better understanding of drivers of Russian policy in the Arctic and the role of interactions in the Arctic policy of Russia and other Arctic states. Russian Arctic governance should be understood as a result of interaction of various formal and informal networks involving actors with various Arctic stakes and interests. Russia's cooperation with other actors in the Arctic has been negatively influenced by Russia's actions towards Ukraine in 2014. Russia is increasingly viewed as a security challenge, also in the Arctic context. The main conclusion is that Arctic cooperation could not be sheltered from negative impacts Russia's actions in 2014 have had on relations between Russia and the West.

Is Russia's Arctic policy developing in a more confrontational direction? Or will it remain conducive to constructive cooperation with other states in the region, thus preserving the Arctic as a distinct policy field? We hypothesize three potential and distinct modes of policy-making that may result in different Russian approaches to the Arctic: a "realist mode" centred on security and distribution of power, an "institutionalist mode" centred on preserving cooperation within established institutional regimes, and a "diplomatic management mode" also centred on security interests, but characterized by cautious adjustment of courses of action within different policy and geographical areas. This project traces the changing weight of these modes in the Russian debate on the Arctic, as well as how these modes condition Russian policies in and on the region. Our analytical point of departure is that Russian Arctic policy must be understood as a product of a dynamic "two-level game" between domestic and international factors. On the one hand, official policies are shaped by domestic actors and institutions that protect and project various views and interests, and are therefore subject to negotiation on the domestic arena. On the other hand, a state's security policies and relations are not formulated in isolation from the policies of other states. If the Arctic comes to be viewed also by Western Arctic powers as primarily an arena for state-contestation and security, that will play into and shape Russian policies. In line with these assumptions, the project will complement the study of how Russian Arctic policy is produced with supplementary case studies of the Arctic policies of two of Russia's Western Arctic partners, Norway and the USA. With its double focus, the project offers an original approach to the formulation and implementation of Russian Arctic policy, with new insights into the kind of interaction to expect in the Arctic in the years to come.