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KLIMAFORSK-Stort program klima

High Impact Weather Events in EurAsia Selected, Simulated and Storified

Awarded: NOK 2.6 mill.

Project Number:

260404

Application Type:

Project Period:

2016 - 2020

Funding received from:

In the period 1992-2009, as many as 85 percent of the world's nations had a low self-sufficiency or only a marginal grain surplus and are thus vulnerable to a global reduction in grain production. A few countries dominate the international trade in grain, such as the US for corn and wheat and Thailand for rice. Whether they can maintain their surplus production is important for global food supply, but at the same time there is a political risk associated with low self-sufficiency. For China, with 7 percent of the world's food soil and 18 percent of the world's population, future food production under a changing climate is an urgent issue. Several studies show that climate change can significantly reduce grain production over the next few decades. We have looked at the impact of climate change on 140 countries in 3 different climate scenarios -RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. These scenarios were developed during the work of the International Climate Panel's 5th report and reflect trajectories where global mean temperatures are expected to remain within the limits of 1.0, 1.4 and 2.0 degrees of warming around 2050, respectively, compared with the period 1986-2005. Globally, grain production is down 6 percent in 2050, even in the lowest climate scenario, where emissions keep global warming well below 2 degrees. In the highest emission scenario, it decreases as much as 10 percent. To understand what this may mean for food security, it is important to take into account that the societal effects do not directly reflect the physical effects on plant growth and food production. Based on the global economic model GRACE we traced the effect of decline in grain production productivity on socio-economic conditions. In this way, we capture the effects of measures that manufacturers and consumers take to maintain their standard of living despite reduced grain crops. When grain production is reduced, grain prices will increase. Farmers are encouraged by increased prices to stem the loss of crops by investing more resources such as labor, inputs and investments. It is also possible for farmers to place more emphasis on cereals and other agricultural products that are more robust to warmer climates. Consumers can replace or supplement cereals with other foods. Such adjustments caused a global crop loss of 6-10% in 2050 to be reduced to 1-2%). The individual countries' degree of self-sufficiency is affected to varying degrees, but relatively moderately (-5 to +5 percentage points). Adaptation among farmers in response to higher prices offsets a significant part of the negative effects on crops. Although farmers generally increase their incomes, many countries will find that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is declining due to increased food prices that drive up wage and cost levels. In North America, Western Europe Brazil, South Africa and Australia, GDP increases with rising prices of grain exports to Russia, East Asia, Pakistan, Southeast Asia and Latin America. For small farmers without access to markets and who produce for their own consumption, climate change will directly affect the food supply. Poor people in the cities will often face higher food prices without compensation in the form of increased wages. Consequently, it is important to secure vulnerable groups and areas purchasing power to meet the impact of climate change on the productivity of food production. Accordingly, economic growth and income equalization stand out as some of the most important measures against the effects of climate change.

The Project has obtained new knowledge on socioeceonomic effects of climate change on grain production, showing that adjustments through markets by farmers and consumers modify the effect on grain supply caused by reduced productivity in grain production. However, subsistence farmers and poor people in cities are not in the position to adapt. This requires governments to keep a careful watch on income levels and distributional issues to prevent exposure to food shortage.

HIWAVES3 facilitates a dialogue between climate modelers, impact modelers and partners in different geographical regions with knowledge of local societal relevant meteorological events to construct stories of selected high-impact extreme events, simulated for present-day and future climate conditions. The story includes the origin of the extreme event from a meteorological perspective, its inter-regional linkages, its predictability, its societal impact and how climate change affects its magnitude and probability. Such stories are effective communication means, more so than bare numbers about the expected mean temperature increase, precipitation changes in percentage and such. Based on surveys, extreme summer events with large societal impacts, like droughts and floods, will be selected from the recent past for China, India and Europe. Similar events will be identified in large ensembles of global climate simulations. Using empirical methods and process-based models, the impact on crop yields and economy will be estimated as well as the number of premature deaths. Using large ensembles under projected 2050 conditions the effect of climate change on these extremes and their impacts will be analysed. This research material is translated into powerful stories about concrete events that illustrate how climate affects man, man affects climate, how different geographical regions are connected and how extreme the weather might get. The meteorological data of these events will be made available for further impact studies.

Publications from Cristin

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Funding scheme:

KLIMAFORSK-Stort program klima