Macro- to Micro-climate: An empirical validation of a novel multifaceted climate downscaling framework using Norwegian climate data.

Changes in climate impact upon vegetation dependent ecosystem functioning (structure and dynamics) and in-turn on the ecosystem services on which human societies depend. The scale at which climate impacts upon plant species interactions and functional processes is relatively fine-scaled (ca. <100m). Improving our understanding of how ecosystem functions respond to changing climate requires therefore fine-scaled and moreover reliable climate data which reflect accurately the prevailing environmental conditions. This project will develop a novel climate downscaling procedure applied specifically to Norwegian climate data. The model aims to improve the environmental realism of current climatic downscaling procedures, through extending considerations beyond elevation gradients to include land-use classes, slope, aspect, oceanicity and solar radiation. It is anticipated the novel methodology, which will be based on Geographical Weighted Regression, to have particular value applied across highly heterogeneous landscapes, i.e. those with strong gradients in elevation, aspect, solar radiation and land-use across relatively small spatial extents (e.g Norway). The project also explicitly incorporates a model validation procedure. This will be achieved using a unique network of climate data loggers taken from co-operating schools, companies, universities and private individually across Norway. The model parameterization and validation phase of this project will result in an accurate fine-scale national climate dataset that can be used for accurate species distribution and forecast modelling. The data will be cross-tested with standard climate downscaling approaches via a mechanistic species distribution model, with a focus on several alpine plant species for which extensive demographic data has been already collated as part of the SeedClim project (an ongoing experimental field study investigating impacts of warming and precipitation on Norwegian alpine vegetation).