Back to search

KLIMAFORSK-Stort program klima

Visiting Researcher Grant for Assoc Prof Frank Jotzo

Alternative title: Veier til Kinas grønne omstilling

Awarded: NOK 0.10 mill.

As carbon emissions continue strong global growth, the most imminent climate challenge for society is a "long-term, large scale" transformation to a low carbon pathway consistent with keeping temperatures below 2°C. Chinese emissions represented 60% of the growth in global emissions in the last ten years, and now China emits as much as the EU on a per-capita basis. Given that China plans continued strong economic growth, it is clear that China's future development pathway will be a pivotal determinant in whether global temperature rise can be kept below 2°C. The objective of this project is to investigate feasible pathways of a Chinese transformation to a low carbon pathway, but importantly, to use alternative methods to ensure robust and verifiable results. The project is separated into four work packages, each addressing specific challenges. First, the accuracy of Chinese emissions statistics is widely debated, and this may bias emission projections. We use independent methods and proxies to verify the trends in Chinese emissions and use this knowledge to reduce uncertainty in Chinese emission estimates. Second, China is an integral and growing part of the global value chain created by international trade. We analyse results from different datasets on how Chinese provinces and multinational firms are integrated into the global value chain, and the consequences this has on emissions. Third, just as the relationship between countries changes over time, so does the relationship between Chinese provinces. There is much debate on whether Chinese coastal provinces reduce emissions by outsourcing production to the central and western provinces keen for economic growth. We seek to settle that debate. And finally, incorporating information on drivers of Chinese national and provincial emissions, we develop independent projections of Chinese emissions leading to a peak and decline, to evaluate the potential Chinese mitigation challenge in the coming decade.

This project is for a one-month research visit to CICERO by Associate Professor Frank Jotzo of the Australian National University. During the visit, there will be two areas of work. The first area is supply-side climate change policy, especially taxes on the production and export of coal and oil. There are several parallel projects at ANU, CICERO, and UiO on supply-side policies. The visit will allow ANU, CICERO, and UiO to explore methodological approaches to compare Norway as an oil-rich country and Australia as a coal-rich country. The second area is China's emissions trends and drivers, specifically short-term trends leading to a peak in China's carbon dioxide emissions. This is an area where both ANU and CICERO are actively working. During the visit, Dr Jotzo will collaborate on CICERO's ongoing activity exploring multiple approaches at estimating the short-term trends and potential peak in Chinese carbon dioxide emissions. In both areas, possibilities for joint papers and funding applications will be pursued.

Funding scheme:

KLIMAFORSK-Stort program klima