Potential of bio-energy with carbon capture and storage to limit warming to 1.5°C

The realised threat of the many damaging aspects of climate change has prompted research into ways of reducing and reversing the recent man-made increase in the amount of carbon in the atmosphere. Most IPCC emission scenarios stabilising climate at low levels, such as 1.5°C, require large scale deployment of Bio-Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS). The concept of BECCS is to grow bioenergy crops to produce energy and sequester carbon. Crops absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere through photosynthesis. When subsequently the bioenergy crop is combusted for energy, the resultant carbon emissions are then captured and stored in geological reservoirs. This therefore results in negative emissions and removal of carbon from the atmosphere. The negative emission potential is reliant on: the amount of carbon emissions from any land use change required to grow the bioenergy crop; the amount of carbon uptake by the biocrop; and the efficiency with which that biocrop carbon is captured and stored. This project will use state-of-the-art Earth system model NorESM with interactive carbon cycle to assess the possibilities of using large-scale BECCS deployment in addition to mitigation to reach the 1.5°C global mean warming target. Key hypothesis to be tested; is it feasible to produce this level of bioenergy over the course of the 21st Century? What would the climate impacts of such large-scale deployment be? Land use competition aspects will also be addressed.

The increasing awareness of the many damaging aspects of climate change over this century and beyond has prompted research into ways of reducing and reversing the recent man-made increase in the amount of carbon in the atmosphere. Most IPCC emission scenarios stabilising climate at low levels like 1.5°C, require large scale deployment of Bio-Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS). The concept of BECCS is to grow bioenergy crops to produce energy and sequester carbon. The crop takes in carbon dioxide from the atmosphere through photosynthesis. When the bioenergy crop is combusted for energy, the resultant carbon emissions are then captured and stored. This therefore results in negative emissions - removal of carbon from the atmosphere. The potential for negative emissions is dependent on three aspects: the amount of carbon taken in by the bioenergy crop; the efficiency with which that biocrop carbon is captured and stored; and amount of carbon emissions from the land use change necessary to grow the bioenergy crop. This project will use state-of-the-art Earth system model NorESM with interactive carbon cycle to assess the possibilities of using large-scale BECCS deployment in addition to mitigation to reach the 1.5°C global mean warming target. We will try aim test a key hypothesis; is it feasible to produce this level of bioenergy over the course of the 21st Century? What would the climate impacts be?