Integrated Realtime Environmental Monitoring and Oil spill forecasting System (IREMOS)

Oil spills in offshore and nearshore environments can have catastrophic environmental impacts and socioeconomic ramifications. As offshore oil exploration and development continue, future severe oil spills are likely and even expected. In the case of a spill, the response time for containment and clean-up is critical to limit the spreading of oil and associated consequences. However, to our knowledge, there is no system currently in operation enabling real-time oil spill dispersion and advection forecasts immediately following a spill. Such system would have the ability to facilitate critical tactical decision-making and a rapid response. An operational system would also have the potential to significantly lower the environmental risk of offshore resource development and other maritime activities such as shipping. This would in turn potentially enable a more long-term sustainable offshore oil and gas sector. Through the Integrated Realtime Environmental Monitoring and Oil spill forecasting System (IREMOS) project, we have taken important steps towards the development of a real-time oil spill modeling and prediction service. The end goal is an oil spill forecasting system that will run operationally for predefined locations and scenarios with the aim to optimize operational response time in the case of a spill. In a joint effort by the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Climatempo, and StormGeo we developed the Coupled Model for Oil spill Prediction (CMOP) model. We thoroughly validated the CMOP model against observation data gathered in the aftermath of a historic offshore oil spill. We also compared CMOP with the Oil Spill Contingency And Response (OSCAR) model in a collaboration with SINTEF. The validation and comparison process helped demonstrate the performance of CMOP in modelling all stages of a deep-water oil spill. We found that CMOP successfully simulates processes, including plume propagation and surface slick advection and weathering, comparable to current industry leading models. The value of the CMOP model was demonstrated when used to support the Brazilian Navy to investigate the cause and ramifications of the catastrophic 2019 oil spill offshore Brazil. The recent expansion of oil and gas exploration and development in Brazil also emphasize the relevance and application for an oil-spill response solution in this region. We conducted a thorough investigation into optimal ocean current forecast products that would be optimal for modeling oil spill scenarios in Southeast Brazil. We found global models to be suboptimal in simulating ocean currents at the appropriate scale and fully capturing the complexity of near-shore currents in the region. We therefore configured a regional model for Southeast Brazil and optimized the model performance based on available observation data in the region. The IREMOS project was an important step towards developing oil spill modeling capabilities in particular in the region of Southeast Brazil. The work is submitted for publication in the Marine Pollution Bulletin to create awareness of the new model and its capabilities throughout the scientific community. We here propose such system in Southeast Brazil to augment existing oil spill contingency solutions with the potential to lower risk and ensure more sustainable oil and gas development which can help protect fragile marine ecosystems in Brazil as well as globally.

Offshore oil exploration continue, and future severe oil spills are likely to occur. The IREMOS project has taken important steps towards the development of a real-time oil spill prediction service through the development and validation of the Coupled Model for Oil spill Prediction (CMOP). An operational system has the potential to significantly lower the environmental risk of offshore activities. For StormGeo, the oil spill prediction service will augment current services to enhance decision making capabilities and safety of operations. It will further give StormGeo an advantage in the industry by being able to offer a unique and valuable solution that can be incorporated into risk management for existing and new clients. The relevance of the CMOP model was demonstrated when used to support the Brazilian Navy for the catastrophic 2019 oil spill offshore Brazil. This creates an opportunity for Climatempo to enhance its services and help strengthen the protection of marine ecosystems.

Oil released at sea can spread for hundreds of nautical miles and can have great environmental impact for marine ecosystems and local populations. Even a relatively small spill at the wrong time/season and in a sensitive environment can be catastrophic and may be much more harmful than a larger spill at another time of year or in another environment. There is thus a need to develop and further improve systems which can (1) track the spreading of an oil spill after it has occurred to provide tactical support to aid critical recovery efforts and (2) help estimate the environmental impacts of oil spills in different geographical regions and during different times of the year to provide strategic guidance for project and response planning. Several modeling systems exist that can be used to estimate risk and plan for potential incidences. However, unless the system is operational, they cannot directly be used to provide tactical support based on current met-ocean conditions in the event of a spill. Up to date, there is no system in place for such real time forecasting of oil spills. Through the IREMOS project, StormGeo aims to work towards the development of such an operational system through the following efforts: 1) Contribute towards development of a state-of-the-art oil spill model, the Coupled Model for Oil spill Prediction (CMOP), led by Climatempo, Brazil. 2) Test, validate, and improve the model using observation data of an historic oil spill at Helland Hansen, Norway. 3) Investigate optimal forcing data by assessing different scenarios and model configurations relying on current observation data from the Peregrino Field, southeast Brazil. The expected outcome of the project is a complete CMOP model which is thoroughly tested and evaluated using real oil spill data. We aim to publish a peer-reviewed validation study relying on comparison with observations and existing models to demonstrate the application of CMOP. We will further demonstrate the utility and accuracy of available met-ocean forcing data in southeast Brazil through an extensive report. The published results and findings from this work will have external validity, hence will be transferable to other basins such as the Norwegian continental shelf. The model and information gained will lay a solid foundation for the potential implementation of an operational system.