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ENERGIX-Stort program energi

Assessment of the Value of Flexibility Services from the Norwegian Energy System

Alternative title: Verdien av fleksibilitetstjenester fra det norske energysystemet

Awarded: NOK 10.2 mill.

Project Number:

268097

Application Type:

Project Period:

2017 - 2022

Funding received from:

The project "Assessment of the Value of Flexibility Services from the Norwegian Energy System" (ASSETS) is a research project that was carried out in the period 2017 to 2022. The motivation for the project is that the costs for new renewable electricity generation have been decreasing over the last decade and this trend appears to continue. This has resulted in new investments in renewable electricity production, which is weather dependent, where electricity is produced when the sun shines or the wind blows. More uncontrollable wind and solar power generation can challenge our ability to make sure that the electricity demand is met. However, flexible consumption, including the use of storage, and flexible electricity generation, are solutions that can ensure that demand can always be met, also in a future decarbonized system. The ASSETS project has investigated how we can maximize the value of Norwegian energy resources when energy is becoming cheaper and flexibility and power more valuable. The advantage of the Norwegian system is the flexibility in hydropower production, while Europe has an increasingly shortage of flexibility The energy system model IFE-TIMES-Norway and the power market model EMPIRE are further developed in the project, and are used address the following research questions: 1) To what extent can the Norwegian hydropower system support and balance the increasing amount of intermittent wind and PV power entering the European power system? 2) How can load shifting, peak shaving and fuel switch in industries contribute to a more flexible demand side? 3) To what extent can the Norwegian energy resources contribute to increased security of supply in Europe? 4) What is the role of flexible demand technologies and the role of energy storage technologies in the future energy system The PhD candidate, Mohammadreza Ahang, started on 01.11.17, and has focused on modelling of demand side flexibility in energy system models, development of stochastic scenarios to represent the weather-dependent uncertainty of intermittent generation and on linking the Norwegian energy system model, IFE-TIMES-Norway, with the European power market model, EMPIRE. He has published an article, "Stable stochastic capacity expansion with variable renewables: Comparing moment matching and stratified scenario generation sampling" and submitted a paper on "The impact of Demand Response on the Norwegian energy system". In 2018 the project focus was on demand response (DR), energy storage and on exploring possible futures for the Norwegian and European energy system. This includes a literature study on demand response, and addressing methodological aspects on how energy storage, such as stationary batteries, Vehicle 2 Grid and hydrogen storage, should be modelled in the energy system model. The project has also investigated how insights from battery degradation models can be considered in the models of the project. The focus of 2019 and 2020 has primarily been related to how intermittent electricity generation should be represented in the models to capture the need for flexibility in an adequate manner. First, the satellite-based dataset that described the weather dependency if electricity generation, Renewables.ninja, has been compared and adjusted according to actual historical electricity generation production data of wind and solar in Norway. Second, the project has analysed how this improved data set can be used to set to represent weather-dependent renewable power production in the models of the project, by evaluating the quality and properties of various stochastic scenario generation methods. This work is currently finalized and documented through three scientific papers (in addition to the publications of the PhD candidate) with the following titles: -"Evaluation of open photovoltaic and wind production time series for Norwegian locations? -"Comparison of PV and Wind Input Data: Renewables ninja comparison with real PV and Wind data" - "Stochastic modelling of variable renewables in long-term energy models: Dataset, scenario generation & quality of results" In 2021, and partly 2022, the project has utilized the improved data and methods developed in the project to analyse the future value of flexibility from a Norwegian energy system perspective. Project results show that there is a need for both end-use flexibility, e.g. demand response, hydrogen storage and stationary batteries, in addition to a flexible energy supply, as hydro reservoirs and grid expansion, to achieve a cost-efficient low-carbon transition. The role and value of flexibility depends, on the other hand, on many external factors, such as the development of the European power market, technology development and energy behavior. Furthermore, the project shows that it is crucial to use an appropriate method to quantify the value and the need for flexibility in a future energy system.

Virkninger: Prosjektet har: - etablert et fungerende tverrfaglig samarbeid mellom energisystemmiljøet på IFE og operasjonsanalysemiljøet hos SINTEF. Samarbeidet har økt kvaliteten til metodene som er utviklet i prosjektet samtidig som relevansen til metodisk arbeid er ivaretatt. - økt kompetansen i prosjektgruppen og flyttet forskningsfronten knyttet til: o håndtering og modellering av vær-avhengige parametere og fleksibilitetsløsninger i energisystemanalyser. o verdi og rollen til ulike fleksibilitetsløsninger ved avkarboniseringen av Norge og Nord Europa Effekter: Prosjektet: - har ved internasjonale publikasjoner og presentasjoner flyttet internasjonal forskningsfront. - demonstrert at tverrfaglig samarbeid mellom energisystemanalyse og operasjonsanalyse øker kvaliteten til analyser av overgangsstrategier til et lavutslippssamfunn. - har bidratt til å øke kvaliteten til energisystemanalyser, som videre bidrar til å gi bedre råd til beslutningstagere.

ASSETS will investigate how to maximize the value of Norwegian energy resources in a world where energy is becoming cheaper and flexibility and power more valuable. It is crucial to understand how the Norwegian energy resources and development of the Norwegian energy system will affect our ability to be a flexibility provider. Similarly, the same developments affect Europe´s need for flexibility. It is the hypothesis of this project that the economies of scale in the Norwegian hydropower and natural gas will make them an attractive source of flexibility. But the need for flexibility depends on European energy policy and market design. It will have major effect also on Norwegian policy. If Norway implements technologies like demand response in buildings and industry as well as Zero Emission Neighborhoods, one main reason must be the additional values that arise from the resulting increased capacity in the hydro power system to serve European needs for flexibility. That again will induce a need for cables, used both for importing cheap energy and for exporting valuable power and flexibility. Before implementing such dramatic changes in the Norwegian system, we need more knowledge about the European need for the mentioned services in different market and system design situations. We will further develop the power market model EMPIRE and the energy system model TIMES in the project. The models will be expanded to include demand-response technologies (short-term),and uncertainties in prices(long-term) to have a more thorough modeling of the North-European energy system and market.

Publications from Cristin

No publications found

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Funding scheme:

ENERGIX-Stort program energi

Thematic Areas and Topics

LTP3 Muliggjørende og industrielle teknologierIKTDigitalisering og bruk av IKTPrivat sektorDigitalisering og bruk av IKTGlobale utfordringerIKTIKT - Bruk og anvendelser i andre fagBransjer og næringerEnergi - NæringsområdeLTP3 IKT og digital transformasjonKutt i utslipp av klimagasserPolitikk- og forvaltningsområderMiljø, klima og naturforvaltningKlimaRammebetingelser og virkemidler for utslippsreduksjon og karbonopptakBransjer og næringerBygg, anlegg og eiendomLTP3 Et kunnskapsintensivt næringsliv i hele landetPortefølje Muliggjørende teknologierMiljøteknologiBransjer og næringerProsess- og foredlingsindustriLTP3 Klima, polar og miljøInternasjonaliseringInternasjonalt prosjektsamarbeidPolitikk- og forvaltningsområderEnergi - Politikk og forvaltningDelportefølje InternasjonaliseringLTP3 Styrket konkurransekraft og innovasjonsevneBransjer og næringerPortefølje ForskningssystemetInternasjonaliseringNaturmangfold og miljøDelportefølje KvalitetPortefølje InnovasjonDelportefølje Et velfungerende forskningssystemNaturmangfold og miljøBærekraftig energiEnergiPortefølje Klima og miljøGrunnforskningNaturmangfold og miljøMiljøteknologiEnergiEnergipolitikk, økonomi og samfunnsspørsmålLTP3 Fagmiljøer og talenterPolitikk- og forvaltningsområderKlimaLTP3 Miljøvennlig energi og lavutslippsløsningerKlimarelevant forskningPortefølje Banebrytende forskningLTP3 Høy kvalitet og tilgjengelighetPortefølje Energi og transportLTP3 Klima, miljø og energiMiljøteknologiAnnen miljøteknologiNaturmangfold og miljøKlimaMiljøvennlig energiEnergipolitikk, økonomi og samfunnsspørsmål