Methods for Transparent Energy Planning of Urban Building Stocks - ExPOSe

The aim of the project is to develop methods for long-term energy planning of urban building stocks, because there is no a transparent tool or method to develop requirements for building energy performance at the moment. Currently, many energy policies and national energy requirements are developed as a result of lobbing and monopolistic point of view, without a transparent proof that the global emission requirements would be reached at the national or urban level. Energy planning of urban building stocks is highly relevant for energy policy, requirements, and standards development. Different tools have been developed, but they have only partially succeeded due to divergent interests when developing them. There are several reasons for this such as a fragmented building industry, complex building ownership, divergent interests regarding energy use and supply. Therefore, policy developers, energy planners, energy supply companies, and city planners need transparent methods to provide clear evidence that their ideas would contribute to a renewable society. To work on the ExPOSe project, the following methods have been included: extensive data collection from different energy monitoring systems and building databases, definition of data framework, building energy simulations together with dynamic building stock model, modeling of energy supply systems, and different advanced analytic approaches. To enable reliable energy pathways, the project also considered energy flexibility, smart solutions, energy supply, and user behavior. The developed work on building energy pathways within the ExPOSe project can be classified as the following: building energy analysis at the scale and building energy analysis and prediction for building groups and cohorts. Within the work related to building energy analysis at the scale, Built Stock Explorer database has been developed by using data from the Norwegian energy performance certificates (EPC) dataset. The link for the database to check or explore building energy use national data is publicly available here: https://buildingstockexplorer.indecol.no/. By using the same database and the parsimonious top-down probabilistic modelling, geospatial energy mapping and analysis for a city was enabled. Further, by utilizing the probability density function as the means to convey the statistical properties of populations with distinct configurations of attributes, building attributes contributing significantly to differ building energy use at the scale were identified. Within the work related to building energy analysis and prediction for building groups and cohorts, in collaboration with Trondheim municipality, we have been analyzing energy use data. Typical duration curves for different building types have been identified. Further, typical indicators of energy use were identified. Different building types were classified, and their thermal properties were identified. For example, the results showed clear difference between heat demand properties of different building types. Finally, thanks to the data from the Trondheim municipality, and high amount of data about building energy use, during the COVID-19 lockdown, we were able to make analyses and show the prediction in energy use before and during the COVID-19 lockdown. We were among the first researcher internationally to publish work on energy use in educational building before and during the COVID-19 lockdown. Finally, we made a study to show how the COVID-19 lockdown may influence the total energy and power demand of different area types. Finally, these data on building energy use were analyzed by using traditional methods such as energy signature curve, moving average, and artificial neural network methods to analyze issues in components sizing for energy supply and operational cost. When comparing different prediction methods, the most important results showed that for a proper prediction of the peak load, historical hourly data are necessary. Due to our research work and developed methods in ExPOSe project, we have been involved in the project on energy planning of Gløshaugen campus at NTNU. Three master students were working on this topic. Our models and the results have been used in the decisions for planning the campus and as a part of the feasibility study for campus development. One of the most important conclusions from the study on the Gløshaugen campus is that small and cost-effective energy efficiency measures such as improvement in ventilation and changes in the temperature level may decrease energy use significantly and thereby contribute to sustainability of the campus. Internationally, we have joined two projects under International Energy Agency with Energy in Buildings and Communities, Annex 70 and Annex 73. Annex 70 deals with real energy use of building masses, while Annex 73 is about energy planning of communities.

Built Stock Explorer database has been developed by using data from based on the Norwegian energy performance certificates (EPC) dataset. The link for the database to check or explore building energy use national data is publicly available here: https://buildingstockexplorer.indecol.no/. Due to our research work and developed methods in ExPOSe project, we have been involved in the project on energy planning of Gløshaugen campus at NTNU. Three master students were working on this topic. Our models and the results have been used in the decisions for planning the campus and as a part of the feasibility study for campus development. One of the most important conclusions from the study on the Gløshaugen campus is that small energy efficiency measures such as improvement in ventilation and changes in the temperature level may decrease energy use significantly. Due to this work, Asplan Viak has started to use our methods. Based on our work in the ExPOPSe project, Professor Natasa Nord is involved in an internally funded project by Faculty of Engineering at NTNU with the focus are sustainability, Optimal Utilization of Resources towards Neutral Climate Built Environments in Europe by 2030-2050 (LIFELINE-2050). The focus of this project is to achieve resource efficient and climate neutral built environment with the NTNU campus as a case. Within this project, Professor Natasa Nord will be a work package leader and a PhD supervisor. Internationally, we have joined two projects under International Energy Agency with Energy in Buildings and Communities, Annex 70 and Annex 73. Annex 70 deals with real energy use of building masses, while Annex 73 is about energy planning of communities. Both projects are highly relevant for the ExPOSe project and we contributed and shared our competence. In collaboration with Trondheim municipality, we have been analyzing energy use data. Due to high amount of data about building energy use, during the COVID-19 lockdown, we were able to make analyses and show the prediction in energy use before and during the COVID-19 lockdown. We were among the first researcher internationally to publish work on energy use in educational building before and during the COVID-19 lockdown. Finally, we made a study to show how the COVID-19 lockdown may influence the total energy and power demand of different area types. Finally, from Spring 2022, we were contacted by Oppdal municipality and one area developer in Hønefoss to help their energy and sustainability plan development. Due to our competences, models, and methods developed within the ExPOSe project, we could suggest three master theses. The biggest impact considering education and the ExPOSe topic is that many students got interested in the topic and currently eight master students will work on the development of the mentioned areas.

The aim of the project is to develop methods, data framework and analysis approaches to support long-term energy planning and develop reliable energy pathways for urban building stocks, taking into account structural changes, flexibility, smart solutions, energy supply, and user behavior. Currently, many energy policies and national energy requirements are developed as a result of lobbing and monopolistic point of view, without a transparent proof that the global emission requirements would be reached at the national or urban level. The reason is that there is no a transparent tool and usually there is not enough knowledge to make good decisions. Energy planning of urban building stocks is highly relevant for energy policy, requirements, and standards development. Regardless of its importance, this research topic is still in its infancy. Different tools have been developed, but they have only partially succeeded due to divergent interests when developing them. There are several reasons for this such as a fragmented building industry, complex building ownership, divergent interests regarding energy use and supply. Therefore, policy developers, energy planners, energy supply companies, and city planners need transparent methods for use in scenario analysis to provide a clear evidence that their requirements and ideas would contribute to a renewable society. Within this project methods and reliable energy pathways for urban building stocks will be developed. Big databases for different building typologies and urban building stocks including different structural changes will be developed. The building database will be input for a dynamic segmented model of the building stock over time, for use in scenarios and energy planning. Combining energy supply analysis and building stock models, an energy pathway database for the regulation and planning of urban building stocks will be developed.