Nutrients in a Circular Bioeconomy: Barriers and Opportunities for Mineral Phosphorus Independence in Norway

Phosphorus (P) use in Norway is highly inefficient, resulting in large imports of primary fertilizer and animal feed and accumulations in soil and water systems. The imports of P contribute to resource depletion and geopolitical challenges such as the occupation of Western Sahara by Morocco, and it exposes Norway to risks of supply chain disruptions. The accumulation of P in soil and water systems can contribute to toxic conditions for fish and other aquatic animals through eutrophication. A more circular and resource efficient P economy could simultaneously address both challenges, import dependence and emissions. MIND-P explored the options for Norway to develop a more circular P economy by recycling its largest emissions, animal manure and fish sludge. We mapped stocks and flows of P in every agricultural and aquaculture farm in Norway in order to understand the areas with the largest P surpluses and the areas with a P deficit, and to determine the theoretical potential for P recycling. We identified the most important barriers and opportunities for a circular P economy, including the fertilization effects of different recycled P products, the potential to use the nutrients accumulated in the water to grow marine products such as algae for human consumption or fish feed, the acceptance of recycled fertilisers by farmers, and the costs and benefits of these new fertilisers. Using the knowledge gained from the mapping of the P use and the barriers and opportunities and with the help of external experts from industry and government, we explored how P could be used more effectively in the future and developed a roadmap that describes options for Norway to develop a circular P economy. The results show that Norway has a potential to eliminate the use of primary P fertiliser by using manure more efficiently. However, this would entail the need to collect and process the manure to a high-quality recycled fertiliser that can easily be transported over larger distances and that meets the requirements of the farmers that today use primary fertilisers. If fish sludge is collected in addition, Norway would have a surplus of P that cannot be absorbed by the Norwegian agriculture alone. It is therefore important to consider alternative uses of recycled P, including producing high-quality recycled fertiliser products that can be exported to other countries with a need for P and organic matter. The MIND-P project resulted in a prototype for a digital infrastructure for the bioeconomy in Norway related to agriculture and aquaculture. This digital infrastructure has a potential to become a backbone for further refined studies on nutrient use, but also for identifying and testing alternative strategies for a circular bioeconomy at farm, municipality, county, or national level.

The project has created new knowledge to inform the discussion on national strategy for nutrient management in a circular bioeconomy, and specific regulations concerning phosphorus use and emissions by the agriculture and aquaculture sectors. It has also contributed to the industry by providing regional potentials of upscaling of technologies for manure and fish management. It has developed a new network of stakeholders from different sectors in government, industry, research and civil society to further the efforts on sustainable P management in Norway. The following effects were generated in different stakeholders through the project: a) Government authorities (from community to national): Important government actors such as The Directorate for Land Use, The Directorate for Environment, Mattilsynet, SSB and Norsk Landbruks Rådgiving have been involved in the analysis of the project’s results. MIND-P used of data from various authorities and place them into a systems context. The workshops conducted in MIND-P at The Directorate for Environment helped facilitate efforts of these authorities to develop a shared understanding of (i) problems, (ii) key potentials that may be used more effectively, (iii) relevant barriers, (iv) promising intervention options and (v) their trade-offs and costs, as well as (vi) key data gaps and uncertainties. b) Industrial stakeholders (farmers, fish farmers, IMTA operators, food and by-product processing companies, biogas plant operators, and fertilizer consultants): MIND-P has produced a map of the Norwegian P cycle, which shows these stakeholders the P context in which they are operating. This allows them to recognize the magnitude of problems they may contribute to, but also the size of new potential business opportunities related to a more effective P utilization, and potential barriers and costs. c) Researchers: The project has developed a methodological innovation within bottom-up modelling in substance flow analysis and helped in developing new experiments to study fertilizer effects of recycled products. It contributed to several research fields including industrial ecology, agricultural sciences, aquaculture and IMTA-related sciences, including disciplines such as biology, engineering, economics, and other social sciences. While several of these disciplines traditionally operate in different specialized communities, this project allows the participants to work towards an integration of these complementary competencies. d) Teaching: The results of MIND-P have been implemented in the NTNU course TEP4285 – Material Flow analysis. A new lecture was developed based on the P management in Norway, and a new exercise was developed using the results of MIND-P. This course is attended by about 60 students per year.

Previous research has shown that the P resources in by-products from agriculture (dominated by manure) and aquaculture (dominated by fish sludge) generated in Norway are more than four times as large as the P demand for fertilization, and that this secondary resource surplus may increase to a factor of 12 by 2050. Nevertheless, Norway is currently still dependent on large amounts of mineral P fertilizers produced from phosphate rock imported mainly from Morocco, while accumulating unused P resources in soils and aquatic systems. The MIND-P project analyses the barriers and opportunities for transforming the Norwegian bio-economy to reach (direct) mineral phosphorus independence by 2030, focusing on manure and fish sludge. The barriers and opportunities to be investigated include (i) the spatial distribution of secondary P generation and options to use them locally (e.g., IMTA) or to collect and transport them to places where they are needed (manure and fish sludge), (ii) quality issues related to plant availability, (iii) quality issues related to toxicity (e.g., sources of heavy metal concentration in fish sludge), (iv) economic barriers related to costs of alternative systems and technologies, and (v) concerns of producers and consumers related to the acceptance of alternative systems and products. The bottom-up studies on barriers and opportunities will inform the development of scenarios for analyzing alternative transformation pathways towards mineral P independence and to identify potential tradeoffs and business opportunities at a large scale. The project is conducted in close co-operation with key stakeholders from government, industry, and research, and supports the development of a P-platform in Norway. The findings will be synthesized into a proposal for a Phosphorus Roadmap in Norway.