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JPIFACCE-Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change

Mobilizing and Monitoring Climate Positive Efforts in Forests and Forestry

Alternative title: Mobilisering og overvåking av klimapositive tiltak i skog og skogbruk

Awarded: NOK 2.8 mill.

Forest potential in the climate policy framework remains underutilized and significantly under-mobilized. Questions about the relative uncertainty surrounding the assessment of carbon content in soils and trees have been one problem. The introduction of strategies for encouraging climate-friendly efforts on the part of landowners and other users of wood-based products represents another side of the problem. And finally, how forest carbon is accounted, and thus incentivized or not, in national, regional and international frameworks, represents a third problem. In FORCLIMIT we address each of these at depth. First, we have analyzed and grouped national-level strategies emerging in the context of the 2015 Paris Agreement and analyzed how these strategies contribute to incentivize carbon-friendly actions among forest owners and users of harvested wood products. We found that the European Union, in contrast to some other countries and regions in the world, has set important restrictions on the potential for forests and forest-based resources to play a more significant role in climate change mitigation strategies of EU Member states. The reason is that EU has elected to sequester the forest role behind a Pillar, a cap, and a Forest Reference Level, all of which set important restrictions on the potential for forests and forest-based resources to play a more significant role in the emission reduction and climate change mitigation strategies of EU Member states. This, of course, does not stop EU Member states from placing more emphasis on the forest role. Nevertheless, it eliminates a large part of the incentive for doing so. Other countries, on the other hand, have opted to accelerate the forest role in climate change mitigation and have proposed strategies, many of which could provide real and meaningful incentives for mobilizing forests and forest-based resources. Second, we consider new technologies and methods for the more accurate estimation of soil and tree carbon, from the national all the way down to the landowner level. We have improved the modelling of soil carbon by developing cost-effective methods that combine local measurements with the current Yasso15 soil carbon model and the Yasso database. This was achieved by linking a forest model (PREBAS) with our soil model (Yasso15). Furthermore, we developed a methodology for calibrating the Yasso15 model using various data sets to obtain local level soil carbon estimates. Third, to improve the estimation of soil and tree carbon, which is an essential part of a monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) system required for efficient carbon mitigation strategies, we have developed methods to provide consistent estimates at different geographical scales, ranging from the stand level to property and landscape levels. We propose a stochastic optimization method to ensure consistency between the estimates provided on the three levels. Furthermore, we have developed methods to classify changes in forests using bi-temporal airborne laser scanning (ALS) data, methods that may be applied automatically over large tracts of forest. Detection of forest changes are connected to the potential of mapping mitigation actions and further to estimate their effects on carbon stocks. Thus, this may be an important monitoring methodology for climate-smart forestry at the local level. Finally, the MRV system enables estimation of carbon changes over a certain time period (for example 15 yrs as demonstrated in a case study) at forest stand, property, and landscape levels with consistency in estimates across geographical levels and with associated uncertainties. The Yasso15 soil model is used with a set of field measurements and ALS data to obtain cost-efficient estimates of soil carbon change at stand level. The results show that it is possible to use ALS to estimate changes in carbon stocks in different carbon pools, i.e., forest biomass, decomposing litter, and humus with errors associated. Likewise, we investigated the potential mitigation scenarios at the national and local levels in three case studies (Netherlands, Romania and Sweden), analyzing forest owners' responses to economic and policy incentives. The results of the survey were integrated into the EFISCEN model and used to calculate the GHG balance in forests. The soil carbon model (Yasso) was integrated with a improved EFISCEN model and used to analyze how international and regional climate change mitigation strategies can be better linked to subnational incentive systems. With the help of EFISCEN, the effects of the proposed climate-smart measures for forests, from more protection of forests to more intensive management of forests, can be better appreciated. The results from the project are communicated through the project's webpage http://forclimit.forestinventory.no/ and the twitter account @forclimit

Impact: - Improved policy expertise on forests and forest-based resources' potential to play a more significant role in climate change mitigation strategies. - Improved knowledge regarding the potential goals of forest management for climate-smart forestry. - Improved soil modelling using the Yasso15 model in estimating the carbon balance of soils at local level. - Improved Monitoring Reporting and Verification (MRV) for estimation of changes in carbon pools and new methods for accurate estimation of soil and tree carbon in forests, from stand level to the national level consistently over large areas. Outcomes: - Increased research capacity and improved scientific evidence base. - Increased interdisciplinary and international research collaboration. - FORCLIMIT harmonized databases for several models (CBM-CFS, Yasso15, EFISCEN space, EFISCEN, Prebas). - FORCLIMIT results have been implemented by stakeholders/end-users.

Forest potential in the climate policy framework remains underutilized and significantly under-mobilized. Questions about the relative uncertainty surrounding the assessment of carbon content in soils and trees have been one problem. The introduction of strategies for encouraging climate friendly efforts on the part of landowners and other users of wood-based products represents another side of the problem. And finally, how forest carbon is accounted, and thus incentivized or not, in national, regional and international frameworks, represents a third problem. We address each of these at depth. We analyze national level strategies emerging in the context of the 2015 Paris Agreement and how these incentivize the role of forests and forest-based resources in the climate policy framework. Further, we analyze national level incentive systems for encouraging carbon friendly actions on the part of forest owners and consumers of harvested wood products. With this knowledge in hand, we consider new technologies and methods for the more accurate estimation of soil and tree carbon, from the national all the way down to the landowner level. Likewise, we investigate potential mitigation scenarios at the national and local level in three case studies (Netherlands, Romania and Sweden), analyzing response curves to economic and policy incentives. Finally, we analyze how international and regional climate change mitigation strategies can be better linked to subnational incentive systems. The goal is to promote methodologies that will provide a more accurate accounting of forest carbon, and permit the greater mobilization of forests and forest-based resources in national, regional and international climate policy frameworks.

Funding scheme:

JPIFACCE-Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change