Back to search

VAM-Velferd, arbeid og migrasjon

Changing Health And Skills Requirements in the Labour Market

Alternative title: Endrede jobb-krav i arbeidsmarkedet

Awarded: NOK 10.0 mill.

Our project studies changes in skills and health requirements in the labor market because of technological change and globalization. We make use of register data mainly from Norway, but also from the US where we collaborate with Harvard University and NBER. From the 1990s to the middle of the 2000s, labour markets in western countries have been polarized, to a large degree from the automation of middle-class occupations. This process has previously been documented in Norway, and our current update shows increasing demand at the top of the occupational distribution, continued decline in the middle, but not an increase in demand at the bottom. This upgrade and increased demand at the top is dampened by a growth in relative wages. These trends are most likely due to both impulses from globalization and technological change. Gender segregation across occupations is pervasive. Emphasising the transitional role played by the monetisation of domestic tasks, we identify a ‘gender equality hurdle’ that countries with the highest levels of female labour force participation have already passed. Above this level, gender segregation declines with labour force participation. The results show that occupational gender segregation is currently lower in countries with high female labour force participation, regardless of public sector size. Hence, it appears that more equality in participation begets more equality in the labour market, as well as in gendered tasks in society overall. The impact of globalization varies with wage setting institution. We explored within-country variation in exposure to competition from China in Europe. In countries with uncoordinated wage setting, regions with higher import exposure experienced a marked fall in employment, while countries with wage coordination experienced no such employment effects. Using the 2004 EU enlargement to Eastern European countries we studied how increased immigration affected employment, earnings, and the sharing of home production among workers? Non-licensed building and construction workers experienced a fall in labor earnings relative to licensed workers after the EU enlargement. Increased labor supply and earnings of the spouse compensated for almost 40 percent of the loss, without any similar change in the division of labor in home production. Technological changes have had differential effects on the earnings of different groups. We use novel data with firm-level information on the introduction of industrial robots, to analyze the impact of robots on the wages of workers. The results show that industrial robots increase wages for high-skilled workers relative to low-skilled workers. We find that employees in managerial positions benefit more from robotization than those in STEM or professional occupations. Overall, the results suggest that the introduction of industrial robots has a positive effect on the average wages of manufacturing workers in Norway. Workers of different age are differentially affected by the digital revolution. With a focus on older workers, we have explored the relationship between rising business investment in software and earnings for workers of different ages. Using a large panel of linked firm and worker data from the U.S. Census Bureau, we find a positive effect of software capital on earnings. This premium declines however, almost linearly after the age of 50 to about zero after the age of 65. Overall, we find that software investments increase wage differentials across firms. With a focus on jobs for youth, we analyzed the development of job postings in Norway during the COVID-19 pandemic. Job postings in the top 20 occupations for youths took a larger hit than other jobs. Separate analyses by education reveal that entry jobs for young people with lower education declined the most during the pandemic. During re-opening phases in the economy, job-posting rates improved, but did not reach the levels comparable to those in 2018 and 2019. The rising numbers of young people with disability pension is a concern. We compare policies between Norway and Sweden. Despite differences in program composition, there are small country differences in impacts. We find lock-in effects of both types of programs. After participation, workplace related programs about doubles the likelihood of entering regular employment or education. We have also studied how the impact of Norway’s vocational rehabilitation programs for unemployed youths aged 18–23 varies with earlier mental health status. Our results indicate that the impact vary with mental health in adolescence. Youth are more likely to pursue further education after program participation. Those that have experience earlier mental health disorders benefit from work related programs, while those with no record of mental health problems in adolescence benefit from classroom courses. There are no significant employment effects.

Prosjektet har tatt for seg endringer i kompetanse og helse krav i arbeidsmarkedet som følge av globalisering og teknologisk endring. Vi har dokumentert nye trender i etterspørselen etter arbeidskraft, vist effekter på lønn, sysselsetting og ulikhet av digitalisering, robotisering, innvandring og økt internasjonal handel, og studert sammenhengen mellom yrkesdeltakelse og kjønnssegregering over tid mellom land. Vi har også tatt for oss virkninger av politikk, både med hensyn til ansettelsestyper, tiltak for uføretrygdede og arbeidsmarkedstiltak for unge med mentale lidelser. Hovedresultater fra forskningen er oppsummert i den populærvitenskapelige framstillingen. Metoder og resultater er presentert og diskutert i internasjonale forskningsseminarer og konferanser og flere av studiene er publisert eller under vurdering i velrennomerte internasjonale forskningstidsskrifter. Publiserte arbeider er listet opp i prosjektbanken. Forskningsresultatene er videre formidlet til viktige brukergrupper i Norge, særlig innenfor politikkområder knyttet til arbeidsliv og utdanning, blant annet gjennom foredrag og kronikker. Vi har ikke mål på effekter av forskningen, men har opplevd stor interesse for resultatene fra media, forvaltning og politikere, noe vi ser på som en klar indikasjon på at forskningen oppfattes som nyttig. Prosjektet har bidratt til å øke kompetansen i prosjektgruppen, både metodisk og substansielt i forhold til forskningsfeltet. Særlig har vi fått økt innsikt i pågående digitaliserings- og automatiseringstendenser, og de virkninger dette har fått for kompetansekrav i arbeidslivet. Vi vil arbeide videre med disse problemstillingene i andre pågående og framtidige prosjekter. Covid-pandemien hadde to følger for vårt arbeid. For det første førte den til en vridning i forskningsarbeidet i retning av også å studere effekter av pandemien på etterspørselen etter ulike typer arbeidskraft. For det andre førte den til utsettelser og forstyrrelser i forbindelse med det internasjonale samarbeidet. Samarbeidet med forskere fra utlandet er imidlertid blitt styrket på sikt, særlig gjennom tilpasningen til nye kommunikasjonsformer som Zoom etc. og samarbeidet som er gjennomført i dette prosjektet vil bli videreført inn i nye prosjekter.

The goal of this project is to identify ongoing changes in the demand for labour along two dimensions: Skills and competency requirements, together with health and ability requirements. We will quantify and isolate the effects of structural change, technological change, organizational change, and globalization on the composition of jobs in terms of skills and health. The focus is on marginal workers, i.e. worker with low formal skills and/or with health challenges. Which of these underlying forces work for, and which work against, the inclusion of marginal workers, and who are more vulnerable to change, workers with disabilities, weak health or workers with low skills? For instance; while restructuring from globalization may affect workers with low skills and health challenges negatively, the robot revolution may change job requirements to the advantage of workers with certain health challenges positively. At the same time, and partly as a response to the same underlying forces, institutional aspects of the labour market are changing. Non-typical labour contracts appear to be on the rise. Domestic outsourcing creates several layers of organisational units between the worker and the employer or principal, self-employed workers may do tasks that were previously undertaken by employed workers, and various forms of temporary contracts are employed to limit the contractual obligations of the employer. On the one hand, these forms of contracts may be seen as promoting flexibility and innovation, and as providing stepping stones for marginal workers. On the other hand, they may stimulate segregation into a two-tier labour market. Who are impacted by the changes in contractual arrangements, - and how is the sorting in and out of non-typical contracts for workers with low skills or health and disability challenges?

Publications from Cristin

No publications found

No publications found

Funding scheme:

VAM-Velferd, arbeid og migrasjon