Impacts of climate change on Norwegian nature based tourism

The Climtour project has studied the effects of climate change on Norwegian nature-based tourism. The overall aim of the project has been to bring new knowledge about the conditions for a sustainable adaptation to climate change in nature-based tourism in Norway. The project has studied both coastal and alpine tourism in Lofoten, hiking and cabin tourism in Jotunheimen, infrastructure related to sightseeing in the Flåm/Nærøyfjorden world heritage destination, glacier-related tourism on Folgefonna and peak summer and winter tourism in Sogn. In each of the cases, local actors within nature-based tourism have been identified who have participated in knowledge development throughout the project. In dialogue between the users in the study area and the researchers, a number of climate indicators have been selected which are used to create climate projections with the greatest possible local resolution in order to outline possible local consequences for tourism. These projections show that the ski season will be shorter and higher in the mountains than today in both southern and northern Norway, precipitation will increase both in quantity and in the form of more intense precipitation. The researchers have had an ongoing dialogue with the users in the project about how the industry itself will respond to these changes. We find that it small-scale tourism has a greater ability to adapt to climate change in its activity than the part of tourism that is linked to heavy physical infrastructure that "locks" the industry to a given ecosystem service and a given geographical location. Small-scale nature-based tourism has a greater ability to adapt because they can relatively easily switch over to other nature-based tourism products should climate change lead to a significant negative impact on the ecosystem services on which a given tourism product is initially based. Other results from the project are that nature-based tourism can be more vulnerable to the effects of climate measures than climate change, for example in the form of increasing prices for flights as a result of climate taxes. Here, too, the vulnerability is affected by whether the industry is "locked" into a dependence on a particular carbon-intensive form of transport, for example cruise-based tourism where it is difficult to transport tourists in in an alternative and less carbon-intensive way. A separate analysis of how climate change affects the spread of forests shows that there will be one raising the forest limit until 2050, but mainly below the current climatic forest limit, and i mainly as a result of cessation/reduction in grazing and not as a result of climate change. This will could affect the tourists' experience of the landscape, but most prominently and extensively in the cultural landscape is the overgrowth that occurs due to reduced grazing and firewood cutting. The vegetation's vulnerability to tread wear, for example along hiking trails, will be affected by climate changes. This is because the climate is expected to become wetter, and vegetation becomes more vulnerable the more humid it is. The consequences for nature-based tourism will probably primarily be increased demand for the preparation of walking paths, with stone laying and clopping over bogs and other wet, weak footing vegetation, as well as areas prone to erosion. This will probably be a significant factor, but still not particularly large or important for nature-based tourism. Increased intense rainfall will also make it more demanding to ford fords, and increased supervision and maintenance of bridges over rivers will be necessary. The most important findings in the report are nevertheless that it is the overall burden on ecosystems, from land consumption, harvesting of species, climate change, pollution and alien species, which will constitute the most important threat to functioning ecosystem services. One cannot see the effect of climate change alone to understand what challenges the future will bring. The project has launched tourism's climate emission figures (both to and from Norway). This stimulated NHO tourism to prepare a separate climate account for Norwegian tourism which for the first time included emissions from foreigners' flights to Norway. This account showed slightly lower emission figures than the account presented by Vestlandsforsking, i.a. because NHO reiseliv had only chosen to include emissions from flights to and not from Norway. The project has also launched a new service at www.klimaservicesenter.no which shows how climate change will affect precipitation (rain, sleet and snow) and temperature towards the turn of the century in the selection of tourism regions.

Prosjektet har for reiselivsnæringen vist hvilke konsekvenser klimaendringene vil få for norsk naturbasert reiseliv ved å: - Identifisere relevante kategorier av klimaendringer i dialog med brukerpartnerne - Identifisererelevante klimamodeller og klimaindekser - Vurdere den isolerte effekten av klimaendringer på utvalgte aktiviteter og produkter fra reiselivet - Utvikle en klimaservicemodulen formidlet på www.klimaservicesenter.no for reiselivet Prosjektet har for reiselivsnæringen beskrevet de viktigste klimaendringene på økosystemtjenester som er kritiske for den naturbaserte reiselivsnæringen ved å: - Identifisere relevante kategorier av klimaendringer i dialog med brukerpartnerne - Identifisere relevante klimamodeller og klimaindekser - Vurdering av den isolerte effekten av klimaendringer på utvalgt økosystemtjenester Prosjektet har for reiselivsnæringen identifisert de viktigste klimaendringene for fysisk infrastruktur som er kritiske for den naturbaserte reiselivsnæringen ved å: - Identifisere relevante kategorier av klimaendringer i dialog med brukerpartnerne - Identifisere relevante klimamodeller og klimaindekser - Vurdere den isolerte effekten av klimaendringer på valgt fysisk infrastruktur Prosjektet har for reiselivsnæringen vurdert de kombinerte virkningene av klima- og samfunnsendringer på den naturbaserte reiselivsnæringen ved å: - utvikle og demonstrere klimaspillet - vurdere og formidle de kombinerte virkningene av klima- og samfunnsendringer på den naturbaserte reiselivsnæringen Prosjektet har for reiselivsnæringen vurdert motstandskraften til reiselivssektoren ved å: - Undersøke turisters oppfatning av forventede endringer i klima - Vurdere motstandskraften til tilbudssiden av reiselivssystemet. - Gjennomføre arbeidsseminarer med brukerne for å få innspill om klimaendringers innvirkning og motstandsdyktighetsvurderinger

Development of tourism, one of the worlds fastest growing industries, has become an important strategy for regional economic development in Norway. At the same time, climate change is altering the conditions on which tourism is based. Ski-tourism is already being affected by a lack of snow in multiple destinations across the globe, recently also identified to be the case for some of the Norwegian destinations. Tourism, and nature based tourism in particular, is dependent on ecosystem and climate services such as snow, aesthetic landscapes and wildlife, as well as being dependent of well-functioning physical infrastructure such as roads, harbors and telecommunications; all of which is subject to impacts from climate change. Still, little is known about how the Norwegian tourism industry will be affected, or its ability to cope with potential challenges and stress caused by climate change. The tourism industry has responded very positively on this project initiative, seeing a need for better knowledge on these issues. The participating stakeholders will take active part in the knowledge production, in line with the concept of co-production of knowledge. This approach will ensure the quality of the knowledge output, secure ownership to it among tourism stakeholders, and promote the practical use of the knowledge in adapting to climate change. The project consists of five case studies: Mountain hiking, physical infrastructure, fishing and hunting, winter tourism, and coast- and alpine based tourism. Furthermore, the project will benefit by getting input from some of the highest ranking international researchers on tourism and climate change in the world. The two user-oriented outputs from the project will be a climate services module tailormade for tourism on www.klimaservicesenter.no, and an interactive climate game designed to promote reflections on climate change impacts and adaptation options for tourism.