Integrated Risk Assessment Framework for Evaluating the Combined Impacts of Multiple Pressures on Arctic Ecosystems

Arctic ecosystems are subject to multiple pressures, including climate change and exposure to long-range transported, persistent, bioaccumulative, and toxic contaminants, and there is a need to enhance the understanding of combined impacts of multiple pressures and their interactions on Arctic ecosystem state and health. This calls for better integration of research within and across disciplines in a comprehensive research initiative. The primary objective of this project is to develop, explore, and evaluate a novel integrated risk assessment framework for assessing combined impacts of multiple pressures on the state of Arctic ecosystems. The main focus is on interacting effects of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and climate change on top-predators of a coastal and an offshore Arctic marine ecosystem (seabirds as black-legged kittiwakes, glaucous gulls and common eiders in Kongsfjorden, Svalbard, and mammals as polar bears in the Barents Sea). A key activity in the project has been to develop the framework, including development of modelling tools. One of the key models is the Nested Exposure Model (NEM). The model consists of a global temporally and spatially resolved module for contaminant fate in the physical environment, and a bioaccumulation module for organic contaminants in food webs typical for the Norwegian Arctic areas. The overall aim is to simulate the whole link between global emissions of organic contaminants and Arctic ecosystem exposure in the context of climate change, also including variation in space and time. A scientific paper describing the bioaccumulation module in NEM, evaluating it for PCB-153 in Norwegian fish and in the Kongsfjorden ecosystem, and applying it to identify the sources of PCB-153 to Norwegian marine areas was recently submitted for publication. The model is currently being evaluated in more detail for the selected top-predators studied in COPE. Complementary modelling efforts have focused on polar bears as our initial case-study. At the moment the model is static (not spatiotemporally resolved) but successfully links interactions between climate conditions (e.g. sea ice extent, water temperature, …), polar bear physio-ecology (body condition, dietary tracers, …) and observed PCB exposure, as such evolving from a retrospective to a prospective risk assessment tool that will allow interactive as well as visual communication with stakeholders and policy makers. A conceptual framework has now been developed to consider impacts. This is based on a “state of the art” multi-layered network approach merging the ecosystem information, ecological network perspectives and dynamic Bayesian modelling for key Arctic species. Field work, partly funded by COPE, was carried out in 2020, 2021 and 2022 in the Svalbard area. Samples from the three bird species from Kongsfjorden and summer food items for the polar bear (seabird eggs) were collected and analysed for POPs. Samples from polar bears, and from species that are part of the polar bear’s diet, have been collected for analysis of contaminants as well as auxiliary biological data. Analysis of POPs and dietary tracers in polar bears and their 12 dietary species have been completed, resulting in a complete biogeochemical prey database, which will allow us to complete analyses of temporal (over time and season) diet composition in 2023. These outcomes will be further used in the above-described DBNA-based decision tool. One result so far shows that since 2007 the air temperature in Kongsfjorden has increased linearly, and that these climate changes have influenced the breeding conditions of common eiders. How this influences POP exposure in eiders will be a focus in the continued data analysis. For the other two bird species, i.e. black-legged kittiwake and glaucous gull, a manuscript on each is close to submission, investigating non-linear trends in the interactions between climate change and POP exposure. To ensure good communication with relevant environmental authorities, dialogue with the Norwegian Environment Agency was established early in the project, and they have participated in COPEs annual meetings. In addition, results from COPE have been presented at both national and international conferences. An Arctic Frontiers side-event was arranged in May 2022 with the topic “Turning science into policy for a sustainable Arctic – How to cope with an Arctic ecosystem under multiple pressures.” In addition, a scientific session on “Adaptive management of rapidly changing Arctic ecosystems using interdisciplinary and system-science approaches" has been organized and will be held in Jan 2023 at the Arctic Frontiers conference, further strengthening the interface between scientists, stakeholders and policy makers.

Arctic ecosystems are subject to multiple pressures, of which two of the major challenges are climate change and exposure to long-range transported, persistent, bioaccumulative, and toxic contaminants. These issues have largely been addressed individually, yet there is a critical need to enhance the understanding of combined impacts of multiple pressures and their interactions on Arctic ecosystem state and health. This calls for better integration of research both within and across disciplines in a comprehensive research initiative. The primary objective of this proposal is to develop, explore, and evaluate a novel integrated risk assessment framework for assessing combined impacts of multiple pressures on the state of Arctic ecosystems. The focus herein will be upon data-rich pressures and ecosystems to enable development and a thorough evaluation of the framework. Hence, the initial focus will be on interacting effects of environmental organic contaminants and climate change on top-predators of a coastal and an offshore Arctic marine ecosystem in the Svalbard and Barents Sea areas. Important sub-goals include research to (1) develop the framework through evaluating existing knowledge of the most relevant pressures and their interactions, (2) explore the utility of the framework to assess interactions of contaminants and climate change on the state of two selected Arctic marine ecosystems, (3) explore the utility of the framework to assess combined impacts across ecosystems, space, and time, and (4) evaluate the overall framework, guide further research, and communicate key results to regulatory bodies and institutions. Overall, the project is designed to both (i) strengthen research on critical Arctic environmental issues across disciplines and institutions, and (ii) contribute with scientific knowledge and possible mitigation strategies of interest to relevant environmental agencies as well as international programs and agreements.

Publications from Cristin

Spatial distribution of Dechlorane Plus and dechlorane related compounds in European background air

Spatial variability and temporal changes of POPs in European background air

What do we know about the production and release of persistent organic pollutants in the global environment?

Ecosystem specific accumulation of organohalogenated compounds: A comparison between adjacent freshwater and terrestrial avian predators

Integument carotenoid-based colouration reflects contamination to perfluoroalkyl substances, but not mercury, in arctic black-legged kittiwakes

The impact of climate sensitive factors on the exposure to organohalogenated contaminants in an aquatic bird exploiting both marine and freshwater habitats

Exposure to PFAS is associated with telomere length dynamics and demographic responses of an arctic top predator

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Prøvetaking på polarmåke i Kongsfjorden på Svalbard

How to COPE? Contaminant–climate change interactions in the Arctic.

How to COPE? Contaminant-climate change interactions in the Arctic.

Modellering som verktøy til å forstå utslipp, eksponering og bioakkumulering

COPE: Undersøker kombinerte effekter av miljøgifter og klimaendringer på arktiske økosystemer

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Development, evaluation, and application of a mechanistic bioaccumulation model for organic contaminants in Svalbard polar bears

Modelling the influence of climate change on contaminant exposure in three key seabird species in the European Arctic

Avian sentinels of the impact of Atlantification on the contaminant state of Kongsfjorden: strengths and pitfalls of a data analytical toolbox.

Temporal trends of legacy organochlorines in a high Arctic seabird over 15 years: preliminary results

Modelling organic contaminants in northern ecosystems across time, space and species using the integrated NEM model

Merverdi av samarbeidet i flaggskipet Miljøgifter: How to COPE?

Modelling environmental behaviour and bioaccumulation of organic contaminants in the Arctic – Combining modelling and empirical surveys

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