The puzzle of the recent fertility decline

The point of departure for the project was the observed decline in fertility rates in Norway and the other Nordic countries since 2010. Until then, the Nordic countries were recognized for comparatively high fertility rates, combined with high employment rates and gender equality. However, since 2010 the Nordic countries experienced an almost continuous decline in fertility rates. In Norway, the total fertility rate went down from 1.98 in 2009 to a historic low of 1.41 in 2022. The project consisted of four interconnected work packages (WPs). Taken together these WPs contributed to a deeper understanding of the fertility decline in Norway and the broader Nordic and European context. The first WP provided in-depth analyses for Norway. Ciganda et al. (2021) study the observed shift towards a weakened educational gradient on fertility outcomes. Results from their simulation modelling indicate that this trend is related to the decline of unintended births. Hart et al. (2021) determine that Norway’s 2009 extension of father’s parental leave quota did not significantly impact fertility, union stability or parents’ earnings. Syse et al. (2022) find that short-term sickness absence positively affects first birth probabilities, while long-term sickness benefits negatively correlate with fertility. The study of Lappegård et al. (2022) confirms that the first phase of the pandemic lead to a temporary increase in fertility in Norway, particularly driven by economically secure women with children. However, one underlying mechanism behind the fertility decline after 2009, namely a substantive decline in first births, remained unchanged. In line with this, the upswing in fertility due to the pandemic was only temporary and the TFR went down again in 2022. The second WP compares the fertility decline in the Nordic countries. Comolli et al. (2021) studies the fertility developments in the Nordic countries in the wake of the economic recessions in the early 1990s and in 2008. Their results indicate a high degree of heterogeneity between the Nordic countries regarding the development of fertility after 1990, whereas after 2008, the trends are more homogenous across countries. The study by Hellstrand et al. (2021) examines more detailed the fertility decline after 2009 and highlights that the postponement or absence of first birth is one main driving force for this development in the Nordic countries. Applying different forecast methods, the study proposes a further decline in cohort fertility, with lowest levels in Finland and a faster decline in Norway and Iceland, compared to Denmark and Sweden. The cohort fertility projections were followed-up in a research note, comparing them with data on intended family size in Norway and Denmark (Fallesen et al. 2023). Especially for Norway, results indicate an increasing gap between women’s ideal number of children and expected cohort fertility. In the third WP the project compares Norway with other European societies and three studies investigate regional patterns across Europe. Nisén et al. (2020) analyses cohort fertility, revealing sub-national differences among women with varying educational levels. Wood et al. (2021) explores the relationship between female education and parity progression, highlighting significant regional variations. Nitsche et al. (2022) examines the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on fertility, assessing how regional variations in fertility outcomes in Europe correspond to factors like urbanization and SARS-CoV-2 incidence rates. The study by Blom et al. (2023) investigates the changing meaning of cohabitation and marriage for childbearing in seven European countries. The study underscores the importance of relationship quality for childbearing decisions. In addition to these empirical studies, this WP includes a systematic literature review on the causal effects of policies on fertility (Hart et al. 2023). Within the fourth WP, the project conducted a laboratory experiment to investigates the relationship between economic uncertainty and fertility. The study of Vignoli et al. (2022) explores how narratives of the future influence individuals’ fertility intentions in Italy and Norway. A positive economic narrative had a stronger influence on increasing fertility intentions in Italy. Conversely, a negative economic narrative had a more pronounced effect in reducing fertility intentions in Norway. Focusing on Norway, Lappegård et al. (2022) find that the association between these narratives and fertility intentions are similar for women and men. The impact of the narratives on fertility intentions remains stable also under the control of couples’ income and employment status. Matera et al. (2022) employed a structural equation modelling to reveal possible couple effects. Results show that individuals’ fertility intentions are affected not only by their own beliefs, but also by those of their partners.

The project "The Puzzle of the Recent Fertility Decline" has significantly deepened our understanding of the fertility decline in Norway, as well as in the broader Nordic and European contexts. It uncovered several key mechanisms driving this decline in Norway, including a notable decrease in first births and a long-term decrease in higher-order parities. A key accomplishment of the project is the high level of international research collaboration. The Principal Investigator (PI) and project collaborators made substantial contributions to several comparative studies, including a sub-national and regional perspective on fertility developments in Europe. Participation in these comparative studies opens up unique opportunities for further international cooperation and network building. A distinctive feature of these studies is their reliance on large-scale population data from up to 28 European countries, encompassing over 200 European sub-national regions. This approach demonstrates how such data can be used in comparative analyses of policy-relevant demographic events and developments, extending beyond fertility research. In collaboration with Italian partners, the project conducted a laboratory experiment in Oslo, enabling comparative studies between Norway and Italy. These studies focused on how perceived future uncertainty and imaginaries of the future influence the childbearing decision-making processes. This focus is based on a newly developed theoretical framework. Testing this theory through an experimental approach has garnered considerable interest in the research community, and similar studies are anticipated for other countries. The project contributed to the further development of the theoretical approach. In addition, the project has demonstrated that an experimental research design can provide new insights in the field of demography, a research field that traditionally relies on other data and methods. Further, the project contributed to an updated systematic review of studies assessing the causal effects of family policies on fertility. Such a systematic evaluation of policies is particularly valuable for policymakers. The study offers comprehensive insights into the intended and unintended effects, or the absence thereof, following the introduction or reform of family policies on fertility. Thus, the review may serve as a knowledge base for targeted adjustments or broader reforms of social policies.

The research project is built on two prevailing research questions with high relevance to the society: (i) what are the main causes behind the recent fertility decline and (ii) which social groups face barriers to family formation and fertility in different contexts? The project will undertake four interrelated work packages (WPs) to answer these questions. In the first WP we investigate the mechanisms behind the fertility decline in a Nordic perspective. Analyses of register data from these countries allow us to examine links between individual characteristics and regional contexts for childbearing decisions of men and women. The second WP consists of in-depth analyses of Norway. We ask whether increasing postponement of first births is influenced by changes in union formation processes of men and women. Next, we consider union formation and dissolutions in joint models with childbearing and simulate the total number of births in counterfactual regimes for union types and careers. Further we study the transitions to births under varying local contexts and investigate main drivers behind the increase in childlessness on regional level in Norway. In the third WP, we conduct a laboratory experiment to identify the possible effect of perceived insecurity on fertility plans, which is a potential cause for the recent fertility decline. Performing such an experiment is the most critical R&D challenge of the project, but we apply a tested and standardised protocol for this experiment. In WP 4 we compare Norway with other European societies that have already experienced a strong decline in fertility. We compare changes in age at first birth and cohort fertility and identify socioeconomic differences in childbearing. Finally, we analyse the linkage between changing age norms, new patterns in transition to adulthood and declining fertility in Europe. Understanding causes behind the fall of fertility rates is a precondition for the development of suitable policy strategies.