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UTENRIKS-Internasjonale forhold - utenriks- og sikkerhetspolitikk og norske interesser

Russias Politicized Economy, Elite Dynamics and the Domestic-Foreign Policy Nexus

Alternative title: Russlands politiserte økonomi, elitedynamikk og forholdet mellom utenriks- og innenrikspolitikk

Awarded: NOK 5.8 mill.

By ordering a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has changed dramatically Russian politics and society. The economy, the power relations between domestic elites, the country’s relations to other countries, the relations between the regime and the population, and, crucially, the relations between the President and the elite – everything has gone through profound changes, and more is to come. Russia is becoming isolated from the West and more dependent on China, and the level of sanctions is unprecedented. The war comes with enormous human and economic cost to Russia (not to mention Ukraine); heavy losses of forces and armament, mass emigration, mass exodus of Western investors and companies, as well as loss of markets in the West, asset freezes, technology embargos, and targeted sanctions against individuals and entities. The GDP is set to contract substantially. Politically, economically, and socially, Russia is put in a mobilization mode. The hardliners in the elite are gaining influence, while technocrats and private businesses are losing both economically and politically. At the outset of this project, we asked: How do the business elite and the government influence each other? How are economic policies influenced by changes in the elite? How is foreign policy influenced by the elite's composition and vice versa? Our publications in leading journals have provided important insights into these questions and have contributed with crucial knowledge on Russian politics and economy on the eve of the war. Present-day Russia is still governed by a loose coalition of elites with conflicting interests, but who have been bound together by unwritten rules, prospects of financial gain, albeit now in the sense of minimizing loss. The war and Western reactions have seemingly forced Russia onto the path of isolation, repression, forced mobilization and an increased role for the state and the military industry in economic life. While other options seem impossible for now, contradictions between the elites remain and signs of discontent are getting visible as Russia has so far failed to achieve its war aims. The elite balance has changed. The power struggle and the dynamics we have been studying in peacetime and continue to study in wartime will influence Russian domestic and foreign policy in important ways, whether Russia’s advances or retreats on the battlefield. Russia’s (mis)fortunes in Ukraine will in turn influence the intra-elite power balance and Russian politics in general. The RUSECOPOL project remains as relevant as ever. For publications, please check the project site on Cristin.no or www.rusecopol.com.

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This project proposes to develop a new approach for understanding the Russian state as a domestic and foreign policy actor. Specialist research has defied popular notions of an omnipotent Putin, state control over major businesses and successful use of economic tools abroad: the elite is diverse, divided and, lately, engaged in infighting. The state is unable to reform the declining economy and loyally rushes to support oligarchs hit by sanctions. Despite Russian economic leverage, the Eurasian Union integration project is failing. In addition, Putin apparently found his control over the security structures to be so uncertain that he founded a new unit, the National Guard, and subordinated it to himself. However, studies have tended to analyse state-business relations, the model of governance, and the domestic-foreign policy nexus separately. To our knowledge, there are no comprehensive studies analysing these fields together within a wider theoretical framework. This project will see them as interdependent factors shaping the state's policies both at home and abroad. Our overarching research questions are: What are the dynamics of influence between business elites and Russian government? How do changes in the elite affect economic policies? How is Russian foreign policy influenced by intra-elite relations and vice versa? Composing a multidisciplinary team of experts on Russian economy, politics, and the security services, this project starts out from the assumption that 21th century Russia is ruled by a coalition of various elites bound together by unwritten rules, prospects of financial gain and with Putin as an arbiter. Poor growth prospects, patriotic fervour, and Russia's new international position are changing this arrangement, threatening elite balance and even regime stability. Regardless of the outcome, this will have profound impact on Russia as a political actor, not least internationally, which makes it critical to understand the dynamics at work.

Publications from Cristin

Funding scheme:

UTENRIKS-Internasjonale forhold - utenriks- og sikkerhetspolitikk og norske interesser