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ENERGIX-Stort program energi

The value of end-use flexibility in the future Norwegian energy system - Flexbuild

Alternative title: Verdien av sluttbrukerfleksibilitet i fremtidens norske energisystem

Awarded: NOK 13.0 mill.

The Flexbuild project aimed to understand how end-use flexibility could impact the future energy system in Norway. This initiative brought together industrial partners, public organizations, universities, and research institutions to investigate various aspects of energy flexibility. The main objective of the project was to provide knowledge on how end-use flexibility available in the building stock will impact the development of the overall energy system. End-use flexibility refers to a building's ability to control indoor temperature, thermal storage (for example in water heaters) and charging electric cars, while safeguarding user needs and comfort. The main takeaways of Flexbuild are here summarized with respect to the project’s objectives. Objective 1: Develop a novel modelling framework (i.e. interaction between several models of the energy supply side and the energy demand side) of the Norwegian energy system capable of evaluating the impacts of end-use flexibility in the energy system. The project created the BUILDopt model to assess end-use flexibility in buildings. It also expanded the IFE-TIMES-Norway model with stochastic elements to account for uncertainty in energy storage investments. Additionally, the project developed a methodology for linking these models. The results from the linking show that buildings remain fundamentally price-takers, meaning that even if energy demand becomes flexible in the entire building stock, this has only a marginal impact on the energy price formation. Objective 2: Assess cost-optimal investment and operation of the energy system vs. private building owner and address possible mismatch between the two. End-use flexibility was seen as a techno-economic investment that improved the match between local PV production and demand, reducing the need for grid expansion. The cost-optimal choice for heating technologies often favoured heat pumps over district heating, highlighting a mismatch between individual building choices and the energy system perspective. Solar PV installation proved to be cost-optimal when combined with end-use flexibility, significantly reducing the need for batteries. Objective 3: Assess the impacts of different power tariffs on both end-user and the energy system. The type of power tariff proved to have a significant impact. A tariff with a power fee component, in addition to an energy fee, will enable more cost-effective peak load management by setting caps on peak demand. On the contrary, a grid tariff with only an energy fee would lead to a modest cost reduction while leading to substantial increase in peak loads (although shifted into hours of low electricity price, typically at night). Objective 4: Asses the value of end-use flexibility for easing the power grid reinforcement. End-use flexibility can reduce the peak load at individual building level by 20-50 %, which is reduced at aggregate level to approx. 16-20% due to the simultaneity factor between different buildings. In contrast, the high level of solar installations raised questions about grid challenges in areas dominated by single-family homes. This because too high levels of solar installations would cause the peak export in summer to exceed the peak load in winter, which does not go in the direction of relieving the grid. Objective 5: Investigate how end-use flexibility may change the role of Norwegian hydropower and investment in wind and solar in the national and European power system. End-use flexibility was shown to accelerate solar PV adoption in Norway, increasing total capacity and electricity production. While hydropower production remained relatively stable, there were slight reductions in power prices. In summary, Flexbuild generated knowledge on end-use flexibility, its modelling and its potential impacts on the Norwegian energy system. It emphasized the importance of grid tariffs, the cost-effectiveness of end-use flexibility, and its role in promoting solar PV adoption while reducing the need for grid expansion.

Capacity Expansion of the European Power System EMPIRE is a long-term investment model designed to optimize technology portfolios within the European power system while considering factors like carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions targets, supply-demand balance, and technical constraints. The model represented thirty-one European countries connected through interconnectors, excluding Norway, which was divided into five market areas. EMPIRE was expanded to incorporate demand response from residential appliances, allowing it to consider residential electric load flexibility. Activation of End-Use Flexibility in Buildings BUILDopt was developed to model end-use flexibility in buildings. It optimizes both operational and investment costs for a single building's energy system, considering factors like grid tariffs, spot prices, and flexible load profiles. The model incorporated flexibility sources such as indoor temperature control, thermal storage, and electric vehicle (EV) charging. BUILDopt's simulations revealed the potential for significant peak load reduction and cost savings through flexibility activation. The choice of grid tariff was a critical factor, with tariffs including a power fee component offering more cost-effective peak load reduction. The model also explored investment optimization in heating technologies, solar PV, and batteries. The results showed that activating existing flexibility sources could eliminate the need for investing in battery systems while it would accelerate the adoption of solar PV in buildings, particularly in houses. Energy System in Norway IFE-TIMES-Norway was linked with both EMPIRE and BUILDopt to understand interactions within the Norwegian and European power systems and the building sector, respectively. This linkage facilitates a holistic view of the energy transition. The results of this model emphasize the value of end-use flexibility in reducing energy transition costs. These flexibility options help align local energy production, especially from PV, with demand, reducing the need for grid expansion. They also increase profits from international electricity trade. End-use flexibility's impact on peak demand reduction varies by region and storyline. Importantly, it plays a role in lowering the need for hydrogen and thermal storage. Hydropower System in Norway The EMPS model focused on assessing how flexible end-use of electricity demand would affect Norway's hydropower-dominated power system. The study found that end-use flexibility had minimal effects on the power system, leading to slight reductions in energy demand and higher energy surplus in Norway. Power prices saw small decreases, especially in 2050, while hydropower production remained relatively stable, with minor changes in average power production and water reservoir usage. However, it also led to reduced income for both hydropower and wind power producers, particularly in 2030.

FLEXBUILD will investigate the end-use flexibility available in buildings, such as thermal load shifting, local storage and substitution of direct electric heating with other technologies – such district heating, heat pumps, biomass boilers – in interplay with building integrated photovoltaic, batteries and electric vehicles. FLEXBUILD will develop and couple the models: BUTLER (Building energy system), TIMES-Norway (Norwegian energy system), EMPS (Norwegian power system) and EMPIRE (European power system) to provide a holistic evaluation of the future value of end-use flexibility in a Norwegian energy perspective. The novelty of this approach is that FLEXBUILD will analyses the value of end-use flexibility from an energy system perspective with a solid stochastic modelling tool with a detailed representation of the building sector. FLEXBUILD will address knowledge needs that are identified for different actors, from the supply side (district heating and grid companies) to the demand side (building owners) and public actors.

Publications from Cristin

Funding scheme:

ENERGIX-Stort program energi