Conflicting Transition Pathways for Deep Decarbonization

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is one of the grand challenges of our time. Meeting this challenge requires that the world moves beyond decarbonizing electricity generation towards "deep decarbonization" involving many established sectors. Such a pervasive transition is demanding new terrain for research and policy making. Research and policy has so far largely concentrated on the emergence and diffusion of specific low-carbon technologies in the electricity sector. Deep decarbonization, however, involves shaping new sector linkages to introduce low carbon technologies in sectors such as transportation, construction, and industrial production. This requires a shift in policy as well as in regulations and market designs. The multi-sectoral approach required for analyzing these challenges, increases complexity of policymaking vastly, challenging current practices and competences in the public sector. Deep decarbonization also intensifies the political struggles over regulations and market designs when industry actors seek to influence the direction of change. At the same time, given the Paris agreement, governments are expected to set direction and clear goals to overcome mitigation challenges in due time. In this context, deep decarbonization profoundly challenge decision makers and risks that decarbonization goals are not met. This project will generate new knowledge that can help decision makers navigate the complexities of deep decarbonization. We identify conflicting transition pathways in three transition lead-countries (Norway, Denmark, and Germany) and analyse preferences of industry actors and how they strategically enact pathways. In addition, we analyse main drivers and barriers for new technologies central to deep decarbonization such as those related to direct and indirect electrification and system balancing. We take an interdisciplinary perspective by combining expertise in innovation studies, policy analysis, economic sociology, and energy system modelling. The project will make several scientific contributions to the literature on sustainability transitions and beyond.

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Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is one of the grand challenges of our time. Meeting this challenge requires that the world moves from decarbonizing electricity generation towards ‘deep decarbonization’ involving many established sectors and industries. Such a pervasive transition is demanding new terrain for research and policy making. Research and policy has so far concentrated on the emergence and diffusion of specific low-carbon technologies in the electricity sector. Deep decarbonization, however, involves shaping new sector linkages to introduce low carbon technologies in sectors such as transportation, heating, and industrial production. This requires a shift in policy as well as in regulations and market designs. The multi-sectoral approach increases complexity of policymaking vastly, challenging current practises and competences in the public sector. Deep decarbonization intensifies the ‘political struggles’ over regulations and market designs when industry actors seek to influence the direction of change. At the same time, given the Paris agreement, governments are expected to ‘set direction’ and clear goals to overcome mitigation challenges in due time. In this context, deep decarbonization profoundly challenge decision makers and risks that decarbonization goals are not met. This project will generate new knowledge that can explicate and reduce complexity and improve competence for navigating deep decarbonization. We identify conflicting transition pathways in three lead-countries (Norway, Denmark, and Germany) and analyse preferences of industry actors and how they strategically enact pathways. In addition, we analyse main drivers and barriers for new technologies central to deep decarbonization. We take an interdisciplinary perspective by combining expertise in innovation studies, policy analysis, economic sociology, and energy system modelling. The project will make several scientific contributions to the literature on sustainability transitions.