Scenarios for biodiversity and ecosystem services acknowledging health BiodivERsA_BioEssHealth

In order to reach the overall objective of the BioEssHealth-project, we have, in the main project, estimated the future global demand for wood and the supply of wood in EU countries during the coming 100 years, using the scenarios in the UN Emissions Gap Report. Based on the estimated global demand for wood from the study countries, we have identified national or landscape-level scenarios with profitable forestry, richer communities of forest beetles and enhanced restorative capacity of the forest. To identify these scenarios, the project first developed the global land-use model GLOBIOM, and further models for the dynamics of individual trees, the structure of beetle communities (more below) and indices for the restorative capacity of forest aiming for stress release and reduction. The group working with health issues found that the forest stand structure explains the perceived restorative value of the forest, and that people working in forests find this value a bit lower than do people not working in forests. The deveolpment of these model also allowed for asking more ecological and conservation-related questions. This has been the main focus of the Norwegian group working mainly on biodiversity. The project has contributed to an elevated understanding of how different factors, both relating to management (forestry) and to environmental conditions, affect beetle communities. Functional analyses are a rapidly growing method in ecological and conservation studies of deadwood species communities. Our work provides new insights into these methods, their use and the potential pitfalls. We show that morphological traits contribute to determine the extinction risk of saproxylic beetles, and that ecological traits help explain species' responses to environmental characteristics and thus should prove useful in predicting their responses to future change. We further show that rare beetle species contribute disproportionally to the function of the community. This implies that conservation measures targeting rare and endangered species, such as preserving intact forests with dead wood and mature trees, can provide broader ecosystem-level benefits. We have also worked on the methodical issues of insect monitoring, as these data provide the basis for long term studies. We present evidence for a less well-known but likely common phenomenon-an interaction between climate and sampling, such that relative effectiveness of trap types for beetle sampling differs depending on precipitation levels and species traits. This highlights a challenge for long-term monitoring programs, where both climate and insect populations are changing. Our findings also provide support for the idea that near-natural forests provide habitats that are distinct from those in managed forests, and which are important for species of conservation concern. Clear-cuts briefly harbor some of these same species, probably due to the sun-exposed coarse woody debris that is available immediately after felling, but this effect is transient. Conservation of existing near-natural forests, many of which are currently without legal protection, should therefore be prioritized in order to safeguard forest biodiversity.

Major Accomplishments We develop the global simulation model GLOBIOM to more explicitly account for different tree species. This allows e.g. more explicit analysis of how increased use of recycled wood may affect trade and competitiveness of different forest industry regions. We also developed models for the dynamics and interactions between individual trees. We have also improved the Finnish forest simulation tool SIMO to better simulate wind risk. Concerning biodiversity, we developed models for the structure of beetle communities made available for doing scenario simulations for continental and northern boreal European forests. Concerning human well-being, we have developed indices for the restorative qualities of continental and Nordic European forests based on expert assessments and based on surveys among the public and people working with forest. The indices are further adapted for use in simulations of forest management.

The projections of the recent UN Emissions Gap Report (2017) shows a large gap between the emission reductions necessary to limit global warming to 1.5-2°C and the likely emission reductions from full implementation of countries? Nationally Determined Contributions. The projections further imply different levels of transition from a fossil- to a bio-based economy. Forest is a main contributor of the transition to a bio-economy, so the different projections also mean different future forest uses. As forestry is a key reason for global species losses, the projections also mean different impacts on future biodiversity. Thus, joint work on global-, EU-, national- and landscape-scale socioeconomics, forestry and conservation is needed to resolve the future challenges of mitigating climate change, developing the bio-economy, assuring the wellbeing of people, and preserving biodiversity. The novelty of our inter- and transdisciplinary work is that we will jointly study global-, national-, and landscape-scale land-use, conservation and human wellbeing accounting for highly policy-relevant United Nations and EU climate mitigation scenarios affecting future global demand for wood products. We will bridge the gap between timber production, conservation of forest insects, and human wellbeing by integrating the system knowledge of biologists, foresters and environmental psychologists with the target knowledge of stakeholders (co-production). The different views on the use of forests will be handled by up-to-date Multi Criteria Decision Analysis. The MCDA will be based on the novel models developed within the project. The two-way communication with stakeholders throughout the project will ensure valuable input at the beginning of the project (co-design), and successful (co-)dissemination of the project findings.