BiodivERsA: Integrating citizen science data from national monitoring schemes to predict the impacts of global change scenarios on birds

Migratory birds play an important role in ecosystem services, including seed dispersal in native forests, control of insect pests in agricultural systems, and as harvested species of wildlife. In our Future Bird Scenarios project, we investigated the effects of environmental change on the future distributions of birds and evaluated the costs and benefits to human society. Our research team was an international partnership among scientists at six institutions in Norway, Sweden, Finland, and the USA. We also collaborated with the European Bird Census Council and Wetlands International to utilize international survey data. We analysed long-term monitoring data for birds from international programs (EBCC, Wetlands International), three national survey programs for breeding birds in Fennoscandia, and opportunistic data from three citizen science programs (Artsobservasjoner, Artportalen and eBird). We successfully addressed four important questions. 1) Which bird species are likely to have the greatest ecological change? In a paper in Wader Study, we showed that three species have negative population trends, but 19 species did not have significant trends. Long distance migrants were more likely to have negative population trends. In a paper in Oecologia, we showed that short-lived species are moving to higher elevations under climate change. 2) What are the risks of climate change for mountain birds? In a paper in Global Change Biology, we used new models to decompose spatial and temporal components of temperature and rainfall and identified mountain birds that will be vulnerable to climate change. 3) Are current networks of protected areas sufficient for future conservation needs? In new papers in Biological Conservation and Conservation Biology, we show that protected areas have the largest populations of waterbirds and supported both cold and warm-adapted species. 4) Where are the bottlenecks in the annual cycles of birds? In a paper in Environ. Res. Letters we found changes in the nonbreeding distributions of waterbirds in Europe with range contracts and shifts polewards. Research output from our international collaboration included 20 peer-review articles and book chapters, 6 manuscripts in progress, 18 presentations at research conferences, and two policy documents. Our major findings have been incorporated into policy documents regarding climate change adaptation measures for birds under the Helsinki Commission (HELCOM, Baltic Sea region), the Agreement on the Conservation of African-Eurasian Migratory Waterbirds (AEWA), and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The four work packages (WP) of our project have contributed to conservation action by providing a better understanding of the range dynamics of breeding and nonbreeding birds in western Europe. In WP1 Species at Risk, we identified life-history traits that make birds sensitive to climate change. In migratory waders, long-distance migrants were more likely to exhibit population declines. In an analysis of mountain birds, we found that short-lived species were responsive and more likely to shift to higher elevations under climate change. In WP2 Mountain Birds, we identified the main components of climate that determine the distributions of alpine birds in Fennoscandia. We found that most mountain birds were adapted to cold sites but often had better population growth in warm wet years. We identified a subset of vulnerable species where relative abundance was higher in cold, dry sites that are predicted to be negatively affected by climate change. In WP3 Protected Areas, we successfully evaluated the potential for current networks of protected areas for conservation of migratory birds. Protected areas had higher abundance of waterbirds than nonprotected areas, and also supported bird communities that could retain cold-adapted species but also facilitate colonization by warm-adapted species. Sites with management plans with funding from the EU Life program performed better for conservation and had lower rates of community change. In WP4 Annual Bottlenecks, we identified seasonal bottlenecks in the annual cycle of migratory birds. We used individual-based models with a seasonal time step to show that natural populations of forest birds were stable in pristine areas but declining in managed forests. We also found greater changes in nonbreeding than breeding distributions of waterbirds. Comparisons between two rounds of the European Breeding Bird Atlas provided evidence for range contractions and poleward shifts in nonbreeding distributions. Our research results have had practical impacts for bird conservation because our major findings have been incorporated into policy documents regarding climate change adaptation measures for birds under the Helsinki Commission (HELCOM, Baltic Sea region), the Agreement on the Conservation of African-Eurasian Migratory Waterbirds (AEWA), and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Anthropogenic change is driving changes in the abundance and distributions of avian biodiversity in western Europe, with complex effects on the ecosystem services provided by bird populations. Our proposed project is a research collaboration among the Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA) in Norway and five universities in Sweden, Finland, and the United States. Our project will be a novel synthesis of long-term data from a suite of national bird monitoring programs, and we will develop state-of-the-art statistical tools to predict future bird distributions under alternative global change scenarios. The major goals of our four work packages are: i) to identify functional traits that are good predictors of range shifts and to identify at risk taxa, ii) to examine the relative effects of climate change and land use change on breeding birds in alpine habitats that undergoing rapid ecological change, iii) to assess the value of current protected areas in western Europe and identify opportunities where habitat protection or restoration might benefit a wider conservation network, and iv) to simultaneously model range shifts in both breeding and nonbreeding distributions and develop new conservation strategies that benefit birds during the entire annual cycle. Our models of future range shifts will be a valuable planning tool for minimizing losses of key ecosystem services from birds in forest regeneration, pest management, and sustainable harvest. Range shifts will also be used to identify emerging areas of potential conflicts due to crop damage or to impacts on recreational fisheries. Alternative scenarios will be developed with engagement of stakeholders who are responsible for management of natural resources on public lands and environmental protections. We will partner with two nongovernmental agencies (EBBC, Wetlands International) to develop improved conservation policy for conservation of birds, their habitats, and associated biodiversity.