Climate system couplings to shipping policy and investments in Svalbard and the High Arctic

This project catalyzes a new trans-Atlantic initiative building on existing expertise between the Ny-Ålesund Flagship Program on Atmosphere Research and projects on sea ice and shipping at Longyearbyen (UNIS), and interdisciplinary research funded through the United States National Science Foundation’s Coupled Natural Human Systems program (NSF CNH 2018-2021). Research in Ny-Ålesund examining the role of distal and proximal aerosol emissions in Arctic cloud cover improves climate forecasts, and forms an important component of Arctic atmosphere-ice-water dynamics. UNIS research on sea ice and risk management is critical to policy planning for Svalbard and the North Barents Sea Region. Through NSF CNH funding, advances in atmospheric and ice dynamics and aerosol emissions (black carbon in particular) are coupled with refined estimates of shipping emissions based on financial risk assessments, and shipping access due to sea ice variability. This coupling is based on both mathematical models and qualitative this novel collaboration will improve Arctic forecasts and projections. Two workshops will be hosted at the Arctic Shipping Forum. The 2019 workshop will catalyze this new initiative by presenting potential contributions of this collaboration, and solicit knowledge needs from users of climate and ice data. The second workshop in 2021 will bring improved climate products to decision-makers, with the aim to improve decision-support.