Unpacking climate impact chains: A new generation of action- and user-oriented climate change risk assessments

10 research institutions led by Western Norway Research Institute and involving research partners in seven countries have for four years carried out 11 local cases on how to improve the "Impact Chain" framework for climate risk analysis. The framework is based on the understanding put forward by the IPCC, where climate risk is determined by the interaction between three factors: Climate hazard, society's vulnerability to climate impact, and the values (exposure) of society that we fear may be negatively affected by climate change. The following types of climate risk have been addressed in the various cases: • Reduction in tourists' experience of comfort and the attractiveness of the destination due to climate change (Spain) • Economic effects of adapting ports, railways, and inland waterways (Germany, the Netherlands, the Rhine area) • Drought in agriculture (Austria) • Risk of flooding in larger rivers (Sweden) • Transboundary climate risk linked to the import of soya used in feed in fish farming and livestock production (Norway) • Climate risk related to the management of financial investment portfolios (Netherlands) • Climate refugees (Paris, France) The trials have focused on five innovations: • Transformative adaptation: Expanded existing approaches that address short-term needs for "adjustment" within the current societal framework to also include bringing out the possible need for long-term and large-scale efforts to transform society. • Participation and co-production: Developed techniques and local participation and co-production in climate risk analysis, and demonstrated how this can strengthen ownership and reduce conflicts related to the distribution of benefits and costs of climate adaptation. • Vulnerability: Developed a framework for analyzing how societal changes can affect local vulnerabilities to climate change, how to conduct an integrated assessment of the combined impact of possible climate and societal changes, and how to better understand the socio-economic impacts involved in local climate adaptation . • Decision making under uncertainty: Demonstrated various analytical frameworks for analyzing and handling uncertainties involved in local decisions about climate adaptation. • Transboundary climate risk: Explored ways to analyze and address local impacts in one country triggered by climate change in other countries. The project has contributed to improvements within all five innovations. The results of the project have been documented in several internal notes, reports and a total of 20 scientific articles. In Norway, the experiences from UNCHAIN have been carried forward in two projects: "Climate adaptation and road transport" for the Norwegian Public Roads Administration and Nye veier AS carried out in collaboration between Vestlandsforsking, NGI and Menon economics; and "Making trans-border climate change risks tangible for adaptation actions (TransAdapt)" financed by Noradapt and carried out in collaboration between Vestlandsforsking, Nordlandsforsking, CICERO, NORCE, and the Stockholm environment institute. Furthermore, during the project period, several work seminars have been held and lectures have been given to train public and private employees in how to carry out local analyzes of climate risk, i.a. as part of KS's SAMPLAN programme.

Prosjektet forventes å ha nytteverdi på to områder: Øke kompetansen i kommunene om hvordan analysere lokal klimarisiko, og bidra til å introdusere ett nytt tema Etter hvert som vi fikk erfaringer fra casene med å analysere klimarisiko har vi tatt på oss opplæringsoppdrag i det å gjennomføre klimarisiko lokalt. Eksempler på dette er et dagskurs for Eidfjord kommune, ½ temadag under KS sitt etterutdanningsprogram i planlegging SAMPLAN (tre ganger i løpet av prosjektperioden), ½ dags seminar for planleggere i Vestland fylke, 2 dagers opplæring i (bl.a.) analyse av klimarisiko som del av Klimathon 2023, opplæring i analyse av klimarisko for KS sitt kommunenettverk i klimatilpasning. Erfaringene fra UNCHAIN er også videreført i flere søknader om utredningsprosjekter finansiert av Miljødirektoratet sin ordning for støtte til lokale klimatilpasning ; bl.a. sammen med Årdal og Oppdal kommuner. Erfaringene fra UNCHAIN har også blitt spilt inn i form av skriftlige innspill til det pågående arbeidet med en ny stortingsmelding om klimatilpasning.

UNCHAIN is part of an international project involving partners from six countries in addition to Norway (the Netherlands, German, Austria, France, Spain and Sweden) and financed by the European AXIS Joint Call for Transnational Collaborative Research Projects mechanism. UNCHAIN is led from Norway by Vestlandsforsking (VF). UNCHAIN take as reference point the concept ‘impact chain’ (IC) which focuses on identifying and describing causal links between different components of climate risks. UNCHAIN will develop the potential of IC in supporting climate change (CC) adaptation capacity-building, by introducing five methodological innovations: (1) An approach to assess CC risks that covers both the short-term need for ‘adjusting’ within the current societal framework and the possible need for long-term and large-scale efforts of ‘societal transformation’; (2) A structured method of co-production of knowledge and integrate this into impact modelling to better account for different views on desirable and equitable climate resilient futures; (3) An applicable framework for analyzing how societal change can affect local climate change vulnerabilities, how to conduct an integrated assessment of the combined effect of potential climate and societal changes, and how to better understand the socio-economic consequences involved in local climate change adaptation; (4) A standardized analytical framework for addressing uncertainties involved in local decision-making on climate change adaptation; (5) Explore the possibility of expanding the logic of impact change along two dimensions: ‘time & space’, and ‘scope’ (i.e. to include the indirect transnational impacts of climate change, and to link mitigation and adaptation). A the core of the project are 11 cases. The two Norwegian cases are "Tourism mobility and climate change" (done by VF) and "Securing sustainable food production in semi-artic conditions under the auspices of climatic changes" (done by Nordlandsforsking).