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KLIMAFORSK-Stort program klima

Targeting Mental Models of Climate Change Risk to facilitate Climate Action

Alternative title: Undersøke mentale modeller av risiko knyttet til klimaendringer for å fasilitere klima-handling

Awarded: NOK 4.0 mill.

Project Manager:

Project Number:

300227

Application Type:

Project Period:

2019 - 2023

Funding received from:

Subject Fields:

Climate change has negative implications for human wellbeing, prosperity, and security. These implications are particularly grave for developing regions with limited capacity to adapt. The goal of this project is to identify ways through which effective responses to the challenges posed by climate change can be facilitated among vulnerable communities in two highly populated African regions: West Africa (Lagos) and East Africa (Lake Victoria). The project pursues an interdisciplinary approach that integrates natural and social science expertise. On the one hand, we developed bio-physical models to establish a baseline of how the climate is currently being affected by natural and anthropogenic (human-made) factors, as well as to simulate likely future scenarios. On the other hand, we investigated perceptions of climate change and associated risk perceptions by various stakeholder groups, including the public. We aimed to identify adaptation and mitigation strategies by analyzing how different stakeholders may differ in their perceptions as well as how stakeholders’ perceptions align with impacts projected by the bio-physical models. We started with investigating people’s understanding of climate change, actual and potential risks posed, and possible response strategies. This phase coincided with the outbreak of the Coronavirus pandemic that forced us to partly replace planned on-site data collections with online tools. We conducted an online survey with experts from science and policy making (N = 28 in Lagos; N = 20 at Lake Victoria). The findings show that perceptions of experts are generally in line with bio-physical projections as well as with historical data, although experts at Lake Victoria may underestimate the consequences of climate change that society is already facing. In a next step, we developed and implemented a comprehensive risk perception survey among 1,997 people in Lagos and 1,200 people at Lake Victoria. Risk perception focuses on perceived impacts and consequences and constitutes a critical determinant of people’s motivation to engage in mitigation and adaptation actions. The findings show that climate change is perceived as a moderate to very serious threat to people. People feel worry, fear, and sadness. But the majority is also fairly confident that climate change can be addressed in their region. Finally, we undertook an in-depth exploration of people’s mental models about climate change. Mental models refer to the way people represent a phenomenon such as climate change in their minds. Mental models allow people to make inferences and act in various environments. We assessed mental models from various stakeholders (N = 550 in Lagos, N = 600 at Lake Victoria) using an innovative tool that we developed (see www.m-tool.org). This tool is available to the scientific community at large. M-tool allows for the elicitation of mental models in both verbal and iconographic manners, so that even populations with lower levels of literacy can be studied. The mental models of community members show a rich and elaborate understanding of climate change. Some aspects are universal across regions. For example, people generally see climate change as caused by greenhouse gas emissions and deforestation, and as leading to temperature change. Other aspects of the mental models are situated in the specific environment. Participants in Lagos ascribed population growth and urban development as important causes and as consequences heatwaves and flooding. Participants from Lake Victoria viewed droughts, industrialization, and rainfall to be important causes and droughts, rainfall, food security, fish stock changes, and poor human health as important consequences. Some of the factors featured as both causes and consequences of climate change in people’s mental models. Stakeholder workshops were conducted in Lagos (May, 2023) and in the Lake Victoria region (Entebbe, Uganda, April, 2023). Stakeholders showed great interest in discussing the usefulness of our findings for their region and provided invaluable feedback. Several dissemination materials have been developed, such as policy briefs and posters for the general public. A collection of these materals will be made available at the project website: https://mecca.sites.uu.nl/news/ The project is part of an international consortium funded under the JPI Climate ERA-NET AXIS (Assessment of Cross(X) - sectoral climate Impacts and pathways for Sustainable transformation) call. The consortium comprises of social and natural scientists from the University of Bergen, University of Utrecht, and Potsdam Institute for Climate Research. More information can be found at the project website: https://mecca.sites.uu.nl

With nearly 2000 participants, the Risk Perception survey conducted in Lagos by the MECCA project is the largest dataset on the topic that currently exists in the area. In 2020, the Lagos State Government launched a five-year Climate Action Plan to replace the previous Climate Change Policy. Due to the disruptions caused to the project by the COVID pandemic, we were unable to achieve initial results from the MECCA project in time to feed into the development of the Lagos Climate Action plan. Nevertheless, pathways to potential impact from this project have been established through continued engagement with local stakeholders within communities, civil society, and the state government. One anticipated impact of the project is that our data on the cross-sectional links between climate change perceptions and mental wellbeing will feed into the review of the Lagos Climate Action Plan in 2025 through uptake by the Climate Change Department of the Lagos State Government. The need for data on the mental health and wellbeing dimensions of climate change in Lagos was highlighted by multiple stakeholders during the project workshop conducted in Lagos in May 2023 and this is an area in which the project is poised to have significant impact. A further anticipated impact is the delivery of evidence-based recommendations to local climate advocates and campaign groups for harnessing climate perceptions and emotions to motivate climate actions among Lagos residents. A pathway to this impact has been established and it involves continued working with a local NGO, SustyVibes, to translate outputs from the MECCA project into material that is relevant and accessible to a diversity of interest groups. The project parts focusing on the Lake Victoria region have likewise engaged with civil society and policy- and decision-makers during the entire project period. The work at Lake Victoria was conducted in close collaboration with the Lake Victoria Fisheries Organisation (LVFO) and local research institutes: TAFIRI, KMFRI and NaFIRRI. These and other collaborations – for example, with the Lake Victoria Basin Commission (LVBC), which coordinates management of the Lake Victoria Basin – will ensure that the findings are translated into substantive outcomes. More information can be found at the project website: http://mecca.sites.uu.nl

Our consortium of natural and social scientists (University of Bergen, University of Utrecht, Potsdam Institute for Climate Research) together with a network of local stakeholders in East and West Africa are seeking to co-develop pathways to facilitate climate action, achieve the long-term objectives of the Paris Agreement, contribute to SDG 13 (among others), and inform the nationally determined contribution (NDCs) strategies. Climate change has far-reaching socioeconomic and political implications in developing regions and divergence in stakeholder perceptions is a common barrier to sustainable development. The overarching goal of the project is to identify effective adaptation and mitigation strategies by analysing the gaps between stakeholders’ perceptions of climate change and the projected impacts of human activities under changing climatic conditions in Lake Victoria and Lagos. The project design offers promising avenues for facilitating meaningful climate action in each location. A novel mental model elicitation tool will be used to investigate psychological representations of climate change and explore opportunities for converging understanding across decisionmakers. We will also assess climate change risk perceptions among communities with a focus on understanding how these are shaped by socio-cultural influences and how they can contribute to facilitating appropriate responses to climate change. As a climate service, scenario simulations considering climate change and human interventions in the environment will be conducted to test and evaluate stakeholders’ perceptions and possible action. The scenario components will be developed in close collaboration with the stakeholders. Finally, through an iterative process of observation, measurement, modelling, field interventions and integration of findings, this project will extend the knowledge base regarding social-cognitive barriers to climate change adaptation and mitigation in the study areas.

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Funding scheme:

KLIMAFORSK-Stort program klima