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KLIMAFORSK-Stort program klima

Scenarios and pathways towards land-use and food production for Western and the Nordic European countries as part of the FABLE Consortium

Alternative title: Scenarier og baner mot arealbruk og matproduksjon for Vest-Europa og de nordiske landene som en del av FABLE-konsortiet

Awarded: NOK 3.5 mill.

Current trends of unsustainable management of food and land-use systems undermine our capacity to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Climate Agreement. Achieving these long-term commitments in Europe and globally requires closing three critical knowledge gaps: gaps between disciplines (environment, agriculture and health); gaps between geographies (countries, region, globe), and gaps in time (short term progress to 2030 and long-term goals (2050). This project developed a Nordic land-use modelling consortium with the aim of providing the research network and infrastructure to close these gaps to provide the first iteration of national, regional, and, in collaboration with the UN's existing Food, Agriculture, Biodiversity, Land Use and Energy (FABLE) network, global pathways to Paris and food and land use systems that are compliant with the SDGs. We used simultaneous and iterative modelling efforts grounded in national expertise and priorities and tested against global ambitions. Autonomous national modelling efforts were combined through cross-country comparisons of contributed efforts to shared global targets, and target domains (healthy diet, biodiversity, climate, environmental flows of water, nitrogen and phosphorus, and land). The EAT Lancet Commission on Healthy Diets from Sustainable Production Systems provided an initial set of science targets for food and land-use systems used by the group. This project was part of an international consortium funded under the JPI Climate ERA-NET AXIS (Assessment of Cross(X) - sectoral climate Impacts and pathways for Sustainable transformation) call. Much of the work focused on modifying the FABLE consortium's generic land-use model to Norway's circumstances. Generic models always require much detailed work to allow them to run for a specific country, and Norway was no exception, with its very high fish production per capita, for example, leading to a number of problems with underlying data quality not faced by other countries using the model. We identified and corrected the more significant such problems, enabling us to perform the scenario analyses prescribed by the consortium. These analyses, under three 'Scenathons, resulted in a number of research publications, including one published peer-reviewed journal article and two more in review, along with a book chapter and several policy briefs, among others. In parallel we contributed to the project's Nordic dialogue process, which aimed to apply a consistent framework across Nordic countries to the issue nexus of food, nutrition, land use, biodiversity, water use, and climate change. Towards this we conducted surveys of key Norwegian stakeholders in the climate-food nexus, from both industry and government, and used the lessons from these as input into the next round of modelling work, in collaboration with our Nordic partners. The project established entirely new research connections with a network within Nordic countries (and Germany) as well as the other countries involved in the international FABLE consortium. We expect to make good use of these collaborative connections in future work within food and land-use system modelling. We also made use of already established networks within Norway, and the project has allowed us to maintain and strengthen these important links between research institutes. Synergies with other projects running in parallel led to co-benefits and greater production of research knowledge than would have been the case in isolation.

The analyses generated in this project have helped to create clarity on the ambition, effort and pace of change needed to achieve long-term objectives for sustainability and human health and to foster national dialogues and debates on how existing policies can become consistent with meeting these objectives. Scientists engaged in the process have benefited from a better understanding of which policy, private sector, and civil society options and interventions are in development, and embedding these options and interventions in model scenarios. The project has contributed directly to a pre-existing process of Food System Dialogues which serve to support dissemination and exchange of ideas, information, and progress on food and land use transitions. Pathways developed within the project were co-produced by stakeholder groups and national governments in question, building on and complementing previous and on-going efforts to support food and land use transitions to sustainability.

Current trends of unsustainable management of food and land-use systems undermine our capacity to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Climate Agreement. Initially using an existing calculator, the international collaboration will iteratively propose food and land use system interventions such as sustainable intensification of food production, reduced food waste and loss, dietary shifts towards healthy diets, strict management of land and oceans, and regional and global trade in an attempt to drive national food and land use systems within science based targets for human and environmental health. The project will initially utilize nationally established climate, conservation, and public health targets and trade flows in an effort to maximize attainment of sustainability targets. In successive scenario iterations, the project will shift to more spatially explicit analysis utilizing Integrative Assessment Models such as GLOBIOM, MAGPIE, or FASOM. The Norwegian partners will primarily be involved in WP1, which will develop scenario pathways of land use, and model these with a focus on both sustainability and human nutrition/health. They will also be involved in WP3, which will integrate the Nordic component of the project into the existing global modelling exercise. Further, Norway will contribute to overall coordination of the project. This project is part of an international consortium funded under the JPI Climate ERA-NET AXIS (Assessment of Cross(X) - sectoral climate Impacts and pathways for Sustainable transformation) call.

Funding scheme:

KLIMAFORSK-Stort program klima

Thematic Areas and Topics

GrunnforskningBransjer og næringerMiljø - NæringsområdeKlimaKlimaeffekter og klimatilpasningerKlimaKlimasystemet og klimaendringerPortefølje InnovasjonKutt i utslipp av klimagasserLandbrukJordLandbrukSamfunns- og markedsperspektiver landbrukCo-Funded/ERA-NETLandbrukPortefølje Banebrytende forskningBransjer og næringerLandbrukCo-Funded/ERA-NETERA-NET Cofund H2020LTP3 Styrket konkurransekraft og innovasjonsevneBransjer og næringerDelportefølje Et velfungerende forskningssystemLTP3 Klima, miljø og energiDelportefølje InternasjonaliseringFNs BærekraftsmålMål 2 Utrydde sultNaturmangfold og miljøTerrestrisk naturmangfold, økosystemer og økosystemtjenesterMatMat - Grønn sektorFNs BærekraftsmålKlimaRammebetingelser og virkemidler for utslippsreduksjon og karbonopptakPolitikk- og forvaltningsområderPolitikk- og forvaltningsområderMiljø, klima og naturforvaltningFNs BærekraftsmålMål 13 Stoppe klimaendringeneLTP3 Et kunnskapsintensivt næringsliv i hele landetPolitikk- og forvaltningsområderSkog, landbruk og matPortefølje Klima og miljøInternasjonaliseringAnvendt forskningPortefølje ForskningssystemetInternasjonaliseringInternasjonalt samarbeid om utlysningInternasjonaliseringInternasjonalt prosjektsamarbeidPortefølje Mat og bioressurserKlimaKlimarelevant forskningLTP3 Høy kvalitet og tilgjengelighetLTP3 Rettede internasjonaliseringstiltakLTP3 Klima, polar og miljøLTP3 Samfunnssikkerhet og beredskapLTP3 Samfunnsikkerhet, sårbarhet og konfliktMatGlobal matsikkerhetMatNaturmangfold og miljøTerrestrisk arealbruk og arealendringMatMat, helse og velværeNaturmangfold og miljøMatTrygg verdikjedeNaturmangfold og miljøGlobale miljøutfordringer