EU-STRA-Strålevern

n nuclear emergency management, dealing with uncertain information is an intrinsic problem for decision making. Uncertain information related to, for example, incomplete information on the source term and the prevailing weather can result in dose assessments that differ dramatically from reality. Uncertainty is also an intrinsic part of model parameters. In the presence of uncertainty, ineffective decisions are often taken (e.g. too conservative or optimistic predictions), which may result in more overall harm than good, as was observed following the Fukushima accident. Therefore, the reduction of uncertainty, and how to deal with uncertain information, is essential to improve decision making for the protection of the affected population and to minimise disruption of normal living conditions. The CONFIDENCE Project has carried out research focussed on uncertainties in the area of emergency management and long-term rehabilitation, concentrating on the early and transition phases of an emergency. Transport and uptake models have been improved to Account for particles, as well as adaptions field studies on the short term behaviour of I-131. Social science research carried out on on the preferences and opinions of stakeholders (including the public) and decision-makers demonstrated a range of societal and ethical uncertainties.

The main outcome of the CONFIDENCE project has been the improvement of emergency prepardeness in the event of a nuclear accident, thus the results should be of direct societal benefit to populations affected by nuclear emergencies. This has been achieved through the reduction of uncertainties, where practicable, and the development of approaches to deal with uncertainty information. Software solutions and scenarios have been integrated into Decision Support Systems (DSS) for operational use in the nuclear emergency management. The project also offered important networking and research collaborations for Norwegian actors in radiological protection. It brings together expertise from all four EUROPEAN Radiation Protection Platforms (NERIS, MELODI, ALLIANCE, EURADOS) and also from Social Sciences and Humanities, as well as all major end-users and radiological protection actors, ICRP, IAEA, NEA as well as countries outside Europe.

In nuclear emergency management and long-term rehabilitation, dealing with uncertain information on the current situation, or predicted evolution of the situation, is an intrinsic problem for decision making. Uncertain information related to, for instance, incomplete information on the source term and the prevailing weather can result in dose assessments that differ dramatically from reality. Uncertainty is also an intrinsic part of model parameters. In the presence of uncertainty, ineffective decisions are often taken (e.g. too conservative or optimistic predictions, inadequately accounting of non-radiological risks), which may result in more overall harm than good due to secondary causalities as observed following the Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents. Therefore, the reduction of uncertainty, and how to deal with uncertain information, is essential to improve decision making for the protection of the affected population and to minimise disruption of normal living conditions. The CONFIDENCE Project, funded under the H2020 CONCERT project, will perform research focussed on uncertainties in the area of emergency management and long-term rehabilitation, bringing together 32 partner organisations from accross Europe. It concentrates on the early and transition phases of an emergency, and combines scientific and modelling studies with social research on the preferences and opinions of stakeholders (including the public) and decision-makers (including radiological protection experts), as well as communication of uncertainties and training workshops. The project is comprised of 7 Work Packages (WPs), and NMBU is involved in 5 of these: WP1: Model Improvement through Uncertainty Analysis. WP3: Radioecological Modelling WP5: Social, Ethical and communicational aspects of Uncertainty Management WP6: Decision-Making Under Uncertainties WP7: Education and Training