Aviation in a low-carbon society

At the start of the year we published a paper on what explains support for restrictions on leisure air travel based on climate concern and on limiting the spread of COVID-19. Based on statistical analyses of a representative survey we find that the same factors explain support for restrictions motivated by the two different problems - climate change and COVID-19. The expected effectiveness of the measure is a very powerful explanatory factor. The support for the measure increases with perceived threat, imminence of the problem, shorted expected duration of the measure, knowledge about the problem and trust in information about the problem from the authorities. Support decreases with expected negative consequences for one self and for poor groups. The difference in level of support for measures motivated by COVID-19 or climate change can be explained by COVID-19 being perceived as a more imminent threat, and because the measures are expected to be more effective and have a shorter duration. Based on a literature review and interviews with people who have expertise on climate measures in the aviation industry we have mapped the strategies the sector is pursuing to limit its climate impact. There is a clear tendency to invest in the least disruptive options such as improved efficiency and offsets. There is a very defined new push towards Sustainable Aviation Fuels, which consist of both biofuels and synthetic fuels. This has the potential to yield a substantial decrease in CO2 emissions and also some decrease in the formation of contrail cirrus, but the cost is so far very high and availability limited. It is to a large extent smaller startup companies that are investing in the more disruptive technologies like electric or hydrogen planes, whereas the incumbents are waiting on the sidelines ready to enter into strategic partnerships (or takeovers) if and when they see opportunities for breakthroughs. An important contribution to aviation?s climate impact comes from the formation of so-called condensation trails, or contrails. It requires specific weather conditions in the atmosphere for these long white clouds to form and persist. A central question in this project is how important Norwegian domestic aviation is for contrail formation and what climate impact it has, which is ongoing work within the project. In addition we want help from people in mapping contrails over Norway, and knowing which flights are producing these, i.e. a citizen science project. Pupils and others can use an app to register their observations, which can be used later to support model simulation results. We have produced information about and guidelines on how to do this, and the work of recruiting schools and other groups as participants has begun.

Aviation makes up 2.6% of global CO2 emissions, but the overall climate impact is larger, and the projected emissions growth is inconsistent with the steep emissions reductions needed to reach the Paris Agreement temperature goal. Identifying effective and realistic mitigation options is essential if the sector is to play its part in achieving a low-emissions society. It has been difficult to reduce aviation emissions because of high exposure to international competition, the lack of an effective international policy response, and public and industry opposition. We will explore the drivers and future demand for aviation transport in the consumer as well as the business market, and analyse attitudes to a comprehensive range of potential demand-side policies to mitigate the climate impact of aviation. The Paris Agreement provides an umbrella under which a range of different actors search for effective policy responses. We will study this search mode of governance to understand how it works, which factors motivate firms and government to find and deploy solutions, and how effective governance can emerge. Aviation affects the climate through several mechanisms in addition to via CO2 emissions. The warming impact through formation of contrail-cirrus is estimated to provide a larger individual contribution to climate forcing than that from CO2. Accounting for non-CO2 emissions is essential in the assessment of the total climate impact from aviation - and in understand the effectiveness of mitigation options. We will provide the first estimates of aviation-induced cloudiness from Norwegian emissions and its subsequent climate impact. The aviation sector has been poorly represented in global emission scenarios. Based on our policy and climate impact results we will revise and adapt existing scenarios from the industry and other sources to develop a more detailed representation of aviation, and include the sector in the 1.5 °C and 2 °C narratives used by the IPCC.