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BIONÆR-Bionæringsprogram

Maximizing the Resilience and Carbon Sequestration in Managed Norway Spruce Forests

Alternative title: Skogbehandling i et endret klima - hvordan balansere målet om høy stabilitet og høy karbonbinding i granskog

Awarded: NOK 8.1 mill.

Project Number:

301745

Project Period:

2020 - 2024

Funding received from:

Location:

Partner countries:

While the increased tempertures associated with climatic changes changes may be beneficial for the growth of Norway spruce across most of Norway, climate change may also render forests more susceptible to biotic and abiotic damage. Of particular concern in this regard is the risk of extensive windthrow and snow breakage, which may cause substantial economic losses and potentially turn forests from being net carbon sinks into net carbon sources. The probability of such damage is dependent on the local climate, site conditions and topography, as well as on tree properties that are largely determined by stand density, such as their diameter to height ratio, crown size and root size and -architecture. Hence, to maximise the biological potential of a forest to capture as much carbon as possible and the same time maintain and/or increase the resilience, there is a need to understand the interactions between tree growth, silvicultural decisions, local damage risk factors and climate change. MARCSMAN aims to provide forest managers with tools needed to balance the trade-off between maximizing forest yield and minimizing risk of wind and snow damage, by adapting silvicultural interventions optimally to the expected productivity and and risk factors for a given area. This includes tools and models to: (1) better assess the productivity of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst) stands under changing growing conditions; (2) assess their growth and carbon sequestration potential under alternative forest management scenarios, and (3) estimate and map the probability of wind- and snow damage at the individual-tree and stand level. Consequently, MARCSMAN addresses the expectations of a higher overall productivity in Norway's forests as well as an expectedly higher risk of extreme weather events in the future, and aims to find optimal solutions on how to optimize forest management under the influence of these potentially opposing issues.The modelling and mapping of damage risk will make up the core work for a PhD student connected to the project. Data on snow damge during the 2017-2018 and 2020-20231 winters at various locations in southeastern Norway as well as data from the recent storm on 19. november 2021 will serve as valuable input to the mapping and modelling tasks.

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Resilient forests play a major role in climate change mitigation, due to their ability to sequester and store significant amounts of carbon, and by providing raw materials that may substitute other raw materials with a high carbon footprint. To obtain the highest possible yield and carbon sequestration in managed Norway spruce stands, a high stand density is recommended in Norwegian forestry. However, growing trees in very dense stands may have undesirable effects on the trees stability against winthrow and stem breakage from loads of wet snow. With the ongoing climatic changes, extreme weather events are likely to become more common than today, and this implies a considerable challenge with respect to devising proper stand density programmes for forest stands. To gain better understanding of the trade-offs between dense and sparse stands, we will combine different data sources and methodologies. In WP1-2 we will use time-series of single-tree LiDar data as well as field-measured data to obtain up-to date estimates of site productivity and growth in spruce stands for a 14 000 ha case study area (Fritzøe Skoger AS). Data from NIBIO’s thinning trials will be used to develop new individual-tree growth functions that incorporate thinning effects (WP3), and data on windthrow and snow breakage from Norway and other European countries will be used to adapt and test a damage probability model (ForestGALES) for Norwegian conditions (WP4). Information on tree damage deduced from Fritzøes stand database and the laser scanning data will be used to validate the predictions. In WP5, alternative strategies will be compared and forecasts will be run for different stand density alternatives. This will be achieved by implementing the new site index estimates and models from WP1-4. A synthesis based on the different studies and the scenario analyses will form the basis for recommending site-specific stand density programmes and for revising current guidelines to forest managers.

Funding scheme:

BIONÆR-Bionæringsprogram