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UTENRIKS-Internasjonale forhold - utenriks- og sikkerhetspolitikk og norske interesser

Chinese Multilateralism and its Impact on Environmental and Democratic Governance in Africa and Latin America

Alternative title: Kinesisk multilateralisme og påvirkningen på demokrati og miljøstyring i Afrika og Latin-Amerika

Awarded: NOK 9.1 mill.

The rise of China is increasingly influencing the emerging global order that has been accentuated by the Covid-19 pandemic. This project examines how the scaling up of Chinese economic engagement influences democratic and natural resources governance in Africa and Latin America. How are the principles of cooperation between China and individual countries shaped? How do they influence elites in Africa and Latin America? And to what extent are the principles of international organization and cooperation between groups of countries affected? In answering these questions, we compare Chinese influence in Chile, Venezuela, Zimbabwe and Kenya. These cases have been selected based on differences in state capacity and the strength of democratic institutions, believed to condition China's influence. In addition, we compare the effects of Chinese engagement in four very different international organizational organizations. Two of these are well established (the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB)) and the United Nations Department for Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA). The other two (CELAC-China Forum and Forum for China and Africa Cooperation (FOCAC)) are newer organizations established to strengthen the relationship between China and Latin America and Africa respectively. We study Chinese influence through in-depth interviews with elites in China and in case countries and organizations, and by tracing the processes of Chinese engagement from initiation of cooperation projects to final completion. The project seeks answers to some of the major questions of importance to global governance today: How will the major Chinese investment and lending program, the Belt and Road Initiative, affect global targets for pollution reduction and climate change? And to what extent will a global order in which China plays an important role weaken democracies? We study Chinese influence through in-depth interviews with elites in China, the case countries and organizations, and by following cooperation processes from beginning to end. So far in the project, we have conducted a thorough literature review, and a number of online interviews. We have also explored the use of "dissemination as research". We have done this by inviting policy makers, academics and business actors to participate in webinars and podcasts. These have worked both as information gathering and as dissemination of knowledge. This has been done as a substitute for scheduled interviews with physical presence that have been impossible due to Covid-19. In the early phase of the project, we have carried out smaller studies of specific situations, both various projects in the case countries, and political processes in the multilateral institutions. An important insight from the early phase of the project is that the Chinese involvement in multilateral forums, and towards individual countries is changing rapidly as a result of at least five factors: 1) The development of the principles of Chinese policy, based on Xi Jinping's thought and guiding principles from the Communist Party, 2) Developments in Chinese legislation that guide the implementation of the principles, 3) Developments in the global geopolitical situation, particularly the competition with the USA, 4) Developments in the case countries, including attitudes towards local elites, and 5) Chinese companies and state actors' learning processes in meeting with actors in Latin America and Africa. Based on this, we have begun the development of a theoretical framework to study how China and various national elites "co-produce" policy outcomes. In articles that are in the process of being published, we argue that the establishment of a new form of multilateralism in which China plays an important role will depend on China being able to create a broad consensus on key values. It will require a new flexibility that is partly in conflict with key trends in Chinese politics. In the next phase of the project, we will conduct in-depth interviews in Beijing and the four case countries. These will build on previous contacts as well as contacts established during the period when we have been unable to travel due to Covid-19.

The scaling up of investments under its flagship Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is making China a more active collaborator on the world stage, including in countries where democracy and natural resource governance are weak. While refusing to impose normative conditions on bilateral collaboration, China is increasing its efforts to influence the norms and rules of multilateral cooperation. The combined effect of this may challenge the pursuit of core values in Norwegian foreign policy, without reciprocal understanding between Norway and China on motivation, architecture, procedure and plans. We propose a novel and ambitious study that investigates the impact of Chinese diplomacy and economic cooperation on democratic and natural resources governance in Africa and Latin America. It applies an interactive methodology that includes permanent dialogue with user groups to compare Chinese influence in four multilateral organizations (FOCAC, UNDESA, CCF and IDB) and four country cases (Chile, Venezuela, Kenya and Zimbabwe). We will investigate how actions by different Chinese actors (governmental and business) are coordinated and influences norms and rules of conduct on democratic and natural resource governance. We study this through the impact on multilateral institutions and domestic elites. The goal is to explain the combined effects of bi- and multilateral relations, and develop a nuanced understanding of the resulting multilateralism. The project will be conducted in close cooperation between two professors, two younger scholars and a PhD at SUM (University of Oslo), and three senior researchers at Beijing's University of International Business and Economics. We will jointly conduct document studies and elite-interviews in Beijing (on the new institutional architecture for global engagement, and the FOCAC and CFF headquarters), Washington (IDB), New York (UNDESA) and the four case countries, and jointly publish academically and popularly.

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UTENRIKS-Internasjonale forhold - utenriks- og sikkerhetspolitikk og norske interesser